Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 3

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 18, 2022.

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Day 3 lynching

Poll closed Nov 18, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. miked2006

    36.4%
  4. nornironhorn

    54.5%
  5. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Steve Leo Beleck

    9.1%
  7. TomWatfordFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. wfcmoog

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. With A Smile

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I can make a case for message 1 today and yesterday being the seer. But not sure I can without outing them.
     
  2. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I would be intrigued because I just can't believe that those messages are from a seer...

    I'm going to have to pull the trigger on my vote in the next half an hour or so as I am off to a Black Tie shindig after work this evening.
     
  3. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I was chatting to a mate about these the other day and I realised as I was talking, just how black tie dress code makes them immediately less fun. I guess women enjoy glamming up, wearing cocktail dresses and doing their hair etc. but for men, the faff of a ****y bow and a cummerbund, wing collar and cufflinks - all just contributes to restricting the fun of the evening. Not to mention ***** dressed like pound shop James Bond all drunkenly singing along to Come on Eileen at 1130 being a huge embarrassment.
    Have fun.
     
    AshdonWFC likes this.
  4. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I wouldn't be keen of that at this stage

    I do have a something nagging me about the false 2nd message yesterday and the 3rd message yesterday.
    The false message was posted at about 20 past 11, naming moog as evil.
    40 minutes later, what we think is a more legit message, named moog as good.
    Why did the poster of the 3rd message view moog ? and why so quickly ? If was the wolf then it could only be to protect him.
    If it is the seer, why didn't they view Nornironhorn ? who had also been named as evil. Why were they prepared to sacrifice one over the other?
    I appreciate that they could have only viewed one of them, but why moog ? Is that message possibly from the traitor ?
     
  5. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Glad to hear it went well! It was half in jest hope no offence taken.
     
  6. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Because the person who wrote that message had viewed me the day before.

    Their message literally states it:

     
    With A Smile likes this.
  7. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Haha! I mean I already was totally not bothered about it pretty much for all of the above reasons anyway, but appreciate the positive reinforcement!

    Not to mention that when I accepted the invitation from said broker I was actually under the illusion it was on a Thursday rather than Friday evening!

    It's going to make this journey to Qatar even more of a challenge.
     
  8. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    OK, so here's where I am.

    I am convinced Sinatra is evil, but that's based purely on gameplay and with no message evidence to back it up.

    We have a message naming Norn as evil. There are 3 possibilities - 1. he is evil and the seer named him, 2. He's good and the/a wolf named him 3. He is the tinker and the seer named him.

    There's also the possibility that he IS a wolf, but his fellow wolf doesn't know that and has thrown him under the bus. That would explain why he's been named as good in another message (ie. he's had to name himself as good as he curses the idiocy of his fellow lupine marauder).

    In any case, I'm not 100% convinced about any of my theories here and I am still not sure about Norn being evil, but I don't see a better pick at the moment apart from a stab in the dark at Sinatra.

    I'm open to ideas here and want to vote soon as I wanna start getting drunk.
     
  9. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Even the second evil messenger doesn't think the Message naming me as evil was from the seer!

    The second evil messenger had no hesitation to following the pattern set out by the person who named me as good - hence they believe that person is the seer.
     
  10. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Make sure you don't arrive in Qatar smelling of booze. Or with a same sex partner in tow.
     
    AshdonWFC likes this.
  11. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Okay that's it. Been toying with this all day but given we have a guardian I am going to put my cards on the table.

    I am the seer.

    And I know NI is evil.
     
  12. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    OK, I'm going for Norn now. His floundering is making him seem guilty. He's using feeble explanations as alibis for innocence. This is the behaviour of someone who is guilty and knows the gig is up.
     
  13. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Well, thanks for that mate, but it's been nice knowing ya! I was hoping the Guardian was gonna protect ol' moog!
     
  14. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Opps = of course. I was flicking back and only looked at those two messages.
     
  15. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Ok - just got back and catching up. Of course there was a third message….:rolleyes:

    First, glad your op went well Opti.

    My thoughts, for what they are worth. I think the last message is from the Seer. As the Seer, you want to help Team Good as much as possible and give them as much info as possible. The last message lays out who was viewed each day - and why (yesterday the corresponding message explained nornironhorn was viewed on day 1 as they were the first player to post). This message has also explained the code (which I also had assumed was something to do with attendances and was googling Watford matches with that attendance on day 1 to no avail…). If I am right then it means moog, tonycotonstache and nornironhorn are all good. I know I am good (but appreciate I am unproven to others), which would leave two or three evil players left (depending on what role Harrow had and how many wolves we started with) out of the following:

    Ashdon
    (HH24)
    miked
    Opti
    SLB
    Tom
    Tony
    Sinatra
    WAS

    Obviously, if I am wrong and the other set of messages is the Seer, then nornironhorn is a confirmed evil, but I just can’t get on board with those being seer messages.
     
    Optimistichornet likes this.
  16. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Is there anyone prepared to challenge Mike's assertion that he's the seer?

    This is a risky ploy at this point, as for all we know, we've already lynched/lost our backup seer, however, I do think that it's vital that we lynch a baddie tonight.
     
  17. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I thought it was a piece of Watford commentary possibly and the attendance at said game. As 19k is very, very similar to what we bring in the majority of the time.
     
  18. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    This was very unfortunately timed. A few seconds earlier and I wouldn’t have posted the above haha
     
  19. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Edit: Never mind, I see that post is already out of date!
     
  20. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    TBH, if you go back over the threads, you'll see that 50% of the players won't have noticed it.
     
  21. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    And also, I suck at this game…
     
  22. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    To be honest if NI is good I’m gone Monday anyway.
     
  23. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    OK, so on that basis, I'm waiting for someone to challenge Mike's assertion that he's the seer, otherwise I vote Norn.

    anyone prepared to put their **** on the block?
     
  24. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    The messages from Day 1:

    upload_2022-11-18_15-22-42.png

    Message 2 clearly looks like it was sent to Otter just after the author had a chance to read Message 1.

    The fact that it was sent at 1.04 (4 mins after Otter posted Message 1) yet has the opening 'Morning' suggests it was pre-drafted and the author was waiting on the other message. It's unlikely the author read Message 1, picked someone to 'see', messaged Otter, got Otter's response & then wrote out the above message.

    So, who does it benefit to draft a message and delay until they've read the other message?

    The seer?

    I don't know why they would draft a message and only hit send after the initial message comes through. There is no benefit to that approach. And it's unlikely they read the wolf's message and then decided to act.

    The wolf?

    The wolf could have a message drafted up as they've been waiting for the seer to send theirs. It is in their interest to wait and see if the seer names someone as evil (maybe even the alpha themselves). If so, they'd update their message and throw another name into the hat - reducing the chances of an evil being killed. Even if they ended up being killed the following day, they'd still get an extra kill out of it.

    Anyone who believes the non-Southgate coded message is the seer is either evil or crazy.
     
  25. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I reckon Norn has ****ed up by imitating the Alpha's message. Norn is possibly the Beta and has been copying his fellow's style the whole time, rather than the Seer, Mike's
     
  26. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I'd like to ask the real seer not to out themselves.

    miked is the traitor. He's playing the numbers. Getting me lynched tonight gives his two wolves kills.

    He'll get lynched on Monday, but on that day he will be able to tell the two wolves who to kill (he might even do this tonight if too many vote to kill me early, so they don't kill the same person).

    By that point it'll be too late for team good.

    If you are gullible enough to follow him, then you don't deserve to win.
     
  27. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Also makes sense, codes in messages are normally associated with Seers.
     
  28. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    You are a much better player than this moog!
     
    AshdonWFC likes this.
  29. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Goes without saying but I'm voting mike as I know for a fact he isn't evil.

    The real seer will also know that.
     
  30. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    At this stage I think it would be unwise to go for Sinatra. We gain zero information regarding any of the messages, and there is really very little evidence to suggest Sinatra is bad. With (likely) 2 wolves, 1 traitor, and 8 good, we could really do with voting for someone with a bit more logical reasoning to back it up.
     
  31. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    miked2006 is more than experienced enough to post more details than he has been if he was the legitimate seer viewing of Norn.

    miked2006 may well have secured himself my vote for today.
     
  32. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    If that’s the case, I think it’s been clever rather than a **** up. It has made us all think that those style of messages are the Seer’s rather than the wolf’s.
     
  33. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Maybe should have read more of the thread before posting!
     
  34. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    So is miked the seer or is he trying to flush out the “real” seer? Also, if we have masons left, that must narrow the field of possible evils left in the game for them.
     
  35. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Day 1, I had a message prepared with a code ready to go.

    I didn’t want to use an obvious code as I was the back up seer in a previous game and thought it might make people suspect me, but there is a code in there.

    I asked Otter for my viewing which took about half an hour.

    Got back from lunch to see Otter had responded, then copied and pasted the message with the result.

    It was a complete coincidence that the wolf posted a message minutes before I did, and I hadn’t seen they had posted when I sent the message to Otter.
     
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