Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 3

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 18, 2022.

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Day 3 lynching

Poll closed Nov 18, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. miked2006

    36.4%
  4. nornironhorn

    54.5%
  5. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Steve Leo Beleck

    9.1%
  7. TomWatfordFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. wfcmoog

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. With A Smile

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    You’re a strange player. I looked at you on day 1 and confirmed you are good. I’ve told the village that you are good over the last couple of days.

    And you still suspect me? Part of the reason I outed myself today is because people were suspecting that you were evil.
     
  2. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Sinatra only makes sense if NI is evil. If he is, then he’s an obvious candidate for traitor.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  3. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    This is fair in terms of logic, however, as I and ostensibly you want Team Good to win, presumably our most logical course is to go ahead and lynch you tonight (no hard feelings) and then, if you're good as you claim, then we go after Mike tomorrow/Monday?

    Anyone else think this is sound logic?
     
  4. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I think I made a comment earlier in the day about how I agreed with a decent amount of your content, but I disagree with you outing yourself so early in the game if you are the actual seer.

    For the record: I don't think you are.

    Edit: This was a response to miked2006 calling me a strange player. The quote didn't carry.
     
  5. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    The way I see it, we have to vote for Mike or nornironorn. Lynching either tells us what we need to know, unless nornironorn is the tinker (unlikely). Comes down to the probability each of them is evil. Wolf imitating wolf would be an excellent play by team evil, which makes me more inclined to believe Mike is telling the truth. Leaning towards voting nornironorn at the moment.
     
  6. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Being the seer I have viewed NI and know he is evil. I think he is a wolf.

    If we don’t take him out, I would be a likely target as Moog would be an obvious target to save. Knowing the guardian is alive, I’d rather guarantee a wolf today and a view on Monday.

    I also know the code in my messages which will make it very hard for a wolf to imitate me on Monday.
     
  7. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Yeah, maybe, however, if it gets him lynched, I guess it then comes down to how long Mike lasts as Seer, as without him, Team Evil will have a bit advantage.
     
  8. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Possible scenarios:
    11 players left - either two or three evil depending on what Harrow’s role was and how many wolves we started with. Assuming worse case scenario overnight (ie no guardian save)
    1. We lynch nornironhorn and he is good - 3 evil, 7 good left; 2 kills overnight leaves 3 evil and 5 good left on Monday. Evil in the driving seat
    2. We lynch nornironhorn and he is evil - 2 evil, 8 good left; 1/2 kills overnight (depending on his role) leaves 2 evil and 6/7 good on Monday. Good in the driving seat.

    As we still have a Guardian, I would be tempted to say the real Seer maybe should “out” themselves if Mike is bluffing because, if we kill norn and he is good, we’re pretty stuffed.

    if norn is the tinker, we’re stuffed anyway.
     
  9. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I have gone for Norn. Nothing else makes sense to me with the facts at hand.

    MikeD has made a noose for himself if he's lying.
     
  10. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    So, I think we have 3 evil players and 8 good. 2 wolves and a traitor.

    If you lynch me tonight, its 3E vs 7G.

    If the two wolves make two kills tonight, then on Monday, it'll be 3E vs 5G

    Yeah, by this point you'll realise mike is evil and the traitor (a wolf wouldn't sacrifice himself, nor would they know everyone's status).

    So you'll lynch Mike and it will be 2E vs 5G

    2 wolf kills that night and its gone right down to the wire 2 wolves vs 3G.

    You can take your chances (I'm not a special role - not a seer, mason or guardian), but the game has a big swing if we don't kill the traitor tonight.

    Alternatively, lynch Mike and then we have another lynching freed up on Monday, plus only 2 evils who don't know each other left.
     
  11. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I'm being lazy, Mike can you tell us your three viewings so far please?
     
  12. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Think it's nornironorn EVIL, ashdon & moog GOOD
     
    miked2006 likes this.
  13. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Assuming you are telling the truth, why did you view norn on day 2? What was your rationale?
     
  14. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Because the alternative candidate for the seer had viewed norn on day 1, and as an evil player, miked would be trying to cause confusion between the messages.
     
  15. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Which is why I think that, if the “real” seer is out there, although it’s earlier than I would normally think it a good idea, I would say they need to “out” themselves now. We still have a guardian - they can be saved tonight, we would lynch miked today and get another viewing in on Monday.
     
  16. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Hang on, there is another scenario I hadn’t considered so forget that about the seer outing themselves.
     
  17. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    miked2006 has my vote.
     
  18. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    That's not an awful idea, but it won't work if the seer is someone who has already been protected
     
  19. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Yes - see my message above about the scenario I hadn’t considered…
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  20. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Mike, why did you view norn? And also you might as well reveal the code now. I’m sorry, but I’m still not convinced you’re the seer.
     
  21. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Mostly just a hunch.

    NI is an excellent player who was providing logic, and if I knew he was good, I’d confirm him as good to the group (as both wolf and seer would have said he was good) and I knew I could team up with him and let him lead.

    But I also have a massive mistrust of him from previous games as he’s an excellent player and has duped me before.
     
  22. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    **** - I’ve forgotten to do the school run. Back presently. Still don’t know how I’m going to vote but will be either miked or norn (I voted miked yesterday)
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  23. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Even if they have, they would only end up sacrificing themselves for you, surely. Its 1 for 1
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  24. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Hmm it’s a really difficult one, and I’m finding it quite hard to follow. However surely we have to vote for Norn today.

    I don’t see how we can justify any other vote?
     
    wfcSinatra likes this.
  25. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    When werewolf takes over your life!
     
    HappyHornet24 likes this.
  26. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    The code won’t tell you anything except that I am the person writing the second message on day 1 and the first messages yesterday and today.

    I need to keep that a secret until Monday, as otherwise the wolf will impersonate it.
     
  27. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    ONE HOUR

    7 VOTES...
     
  28. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Lmao
     
    HappyHornet24 and wfcmoog like this.
  29. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I've been in and out of meetings all afternoon and don't have time now to process all the above and now need to go out for a bit but should have a small window to vote before 5.

    Miked - can you give any evidence that you are the Seer and not just the traitor trying to out him? Seems very early in the game to put yourself as the Seer whilst not under suspicion yourself and no votes piling up for a Good player?
     
  30. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Indeed. I'm suspicious of the 3 who've voted for Mike. Sure, if Norn is good then we HAVE to vote for Mike, but at this point, there's a clear priority to get rid of Norn first?
     
    Optimistichornet likes this.
  31. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Let us for a minute consider that miked is the seer...

    He wants to out me as evil (because he viewed me) and get me killed tonight. He would know my role, but not whether I'm a wolf or a traitor.

    The guardian will likely protect you tonight if it turned out in Otter's write-up that I was evil (i.e you were in fact the seer). You'd get another view on Monday but then you would obviously die on Monday night.

    So, following the above scenario, there would be 1 less evil (me) but 2 remaining evil players (potentially both wolves).

    There would be 2 good players potentially killed tonight, leaving 6 on team good.

    Even if you got lucky on Monday and viewed an evil player (unlikely but of course not impossible), team good would still be up against an evil player with no seer. More than likely, if you viewed a good player on Monday, there would still be two evil players and no seer.

    Does anyone really think, reading the above, that a genuine seer would out themselves so early just to kill 1 of 3 evils? Effectively killing themselves while 2 evils would remain?

    Also, when you outed yourself - only one vote had been placed - for me! We've seen seer's out themselves before but it is typically late in the game & when the voting is going the wrong direction.

    Mike has done the numbers and realised he can sacrifice himself today to massively swing the game in favour of team evil.
     
  32. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    The only evidence I can provide is that you’ll see that NI is evil.

    It’s very early for an evil player to out themselves too. Who would I be trying to save? Ashdon? He’s good and annoyingly voted for me.

    As said above, I outed myself as I believe the guardian would have protected Moog tonight and NI would have killed me.
     
  33. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    You can't compliment my play and then a couple of messages later suggest I'd kill the one player who led the charge to get me lynched! That's werewolf 101!
     
  34. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    To be honest, Sinatra would be a pretty solid option for traitor to view on Monday if you’re evil.
     
  35. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    i concur, although I am a bit drug addled at the moment!
     
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