The All New Political Polling Thread

Discussion in 'Politics 2.0' started by Moose, Oct 21, 2021.

  1. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Looks like Sunak's bounce has peaked at the approximate 30% core Tory vote;

    Moose likes this.
  2. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Moose and sydney_horn like this.
  3. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Thanks for posting. Very interesting.

    Two points that mean Labour should not rest on their laurels.

    As mentioned in the piece, the "don't know" group in the voting intentions poll is huge. They are more likely to be disgruntled Tory voters than the voters of other parties imho.

    Also, as ZZ was always fond of reminding us, people turn to the right as they age. The anti Brexit, anti Tory sentiment in the young may not necessarily be there when they get older.

    But, at the moment, your summary is spot on. The Tories are farked and so are we until they are kicked out.
    Moose and UEA_Hornet like this.
  4. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    I agree with you, but also have a note of caution. Many of those in the higher income brackets who are currently off the Tories are not natural Labour supporters. The Tories can put together a new alliance of those voters, by putting forward sensible looking candidates like Sunak and Hunt, while keeping the working class retirees piss on the boil with endless threats of transgender and migrants. They may lose the more rabid Brexiteers to Reform, but unless those numbers grow big, then that’s not such a problem.

    Labour has to be very careful about the support it courts. Too far down the (alleged) middle, it will lose its USP and become the party some sections of the working class deserted. And that will be for nothing, because it won’t win enough in trad Tory areas.
    sydney_horn likes this.
  5. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Labour hold City of Chester, with an increased majority, in the first by-election since the Tory leadership elections. This despite the Labour MP having to resign following allegations of sexual misconduct.

    The seat has a curious profile, having gone Tory in 2010 and then to Labour since 2015.

  6. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Why Labour needs the Red Wall vol 397.

    In a clear second place in Gaywood (Nice), Norwich and then the Tory vote collapses. Still in second place.

  7. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I get what you're saying but the problem with extrapolating local council results l like this is the contest highlighted there resulted in the Lib Dem winning by an absolutely maahusive 8 votes on a turnout of 13.7%!
    Moose likes this.
  8. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    I get that it’s a small poll, but mark my words it will be repeated and one day I’ll even have the evidence to prove it. :)
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  9. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Stratford and Urmston By-election result a comfortable home win for Labour. It’s a safe seat, so not too much to read into it, with a low turnout (26%) something for Tories to hang onto.

  10. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    That psephologist from Strathclyde University for claiming that a nationwide 9.3% 'swing' wouldn't be enough for a majority...
  11. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    It may not, but swings are going to be less where you already have most of the votes. Psephologists learn that first day of Psephology School.

    Second day is a big party with tea and cake that goes on to 6pm.
  12. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    And also a 23(?)% turnout?
  13. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Labour are well into massive landslide territory to even get close to a majority so I can see why 9.3% wouldn't cut it.
  14. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    With a turnout of just 26 per cent the result should be void.
  15. Keighley

    Keighley Squad Player

    Tbf it's ******* freezing out there.
    Moose likes this.
  16. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Tories tanking amid cheeky Lib Dem revival?

  17. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    The demonising of refugees doesn't seem to working for the Tories....yet:

    Moose likes this.
  18. Mr Heron

    Mr Heron Academy Graduate

    i was going to say that i am absolutely astonished that as much as 27% of the population would consider voting for the current tories
    then i remembered what the general public are like
    Moose likes this.
  19. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

Share This Page