I've put this here because it's an interesting breakdown and analysis of political polling across lots of different measures (voter income, education, house price) and does some comparison with past years. https://benansell.substack.com/p/ar...a-death?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 Tl;Dr - Tories are farked.
Thanks for posting. Very interesting. Two points that mean Labour should not rest on their laurels. As mentioned in the piece, the "don't know" group in the voting intentions poll is huge. They are more likely to be disgruntled Tory voters than the voters of other parties imho. Also, as ZZ was always fond of reminding us, people turn to the right as they age. The anti Brexit, anti Tory sentiment in the young may not necessarily be there when they get older. But, at the moment, your summary is spot on. The Tories are farked and so are we until they are kicked out.
I agree with you, but also have a note of caution. Many of those in the higher income brackets who are currently off the Tories are not natural Labour supporters. The Tories can put together a new alliance of those voters, by putting forward sensible looking candidates like Sunak and Hunt, while keeping the working class retirees piss on the boil with endless threats of transgender and migrants. They may lose the more rabid Brexiteers to Reform, but unless those numbers grow big, then that’s not such a problem. Labour has to be very careful about the support it courts. Too far down the (alleged) middle, it will lose its USP and become the party some sections of the working class deserted. And that will be for nothing, because it won’t win enough in trad Tory areas.
Labour hold City of Chester, with an increased majority, in the first by-election since the Tory leadership elections. This despite the Labour MP having to resign following allegations of sexual misconduct. The seat has a curious profile, having gone Tory in 2010 and then to Labour since 2015.
Why Labour needs the Red Wall vol 397. In a clear second place in Gaywood (Nice), Norwich and then the Tory vote collapses. Still in second place.
I get what you're saying but the problem with extrapolating local council results l like this is the contest highlighted there resulted in the Lib Dem winning by an absolutely maahusive 8 votes on a turnout of 13.7%!
I get that it’s a small poll, but mark my words it will be repeated and one day I’ll even have the evidence to prove it.
Stratford and Urmston By-election result a comfortable home win for Labour. It’s a safe seat, so not too much to read into it, with a low turnout (26%) something for Tories to hang onto.
That psephologist from Strathclyde University for claiming that a nationwide 9.3% 'swing' wouldn't be enough for a majority...
It may not, but swings are going to be less where you already have most of the votes. Psephologists learn that first day of Psephology School. Second day is a big party with tea and cake that goes on to 6pm.
Labour are well into massive landslide territory to even get close to a majority so I can see why 9.3% wouldn't cut it.
i was going to say that i am absolutely astonished that as much as 27% of the population would consider voting for the current tories then i remembered what the general public are like
