All news from the polls here. Debate electoral politics until the inevitable happens in 2023. The big story since the last election is the remarkable ability of the Tories to keep their lead. I have rarely seen them poll below 40% during that time. It’s not all gloom for Labour with the last three polls putting them on 37%. That’s actually the kind of numbers that can form a Government. However, the Tories would appear to have the voters in the right places to win big and there is no suggestion that the Labour Leadership’s ideas have traction, meaning recovery could be built on sand. Some decent analysis of why the Tories remain so popular and what the risks are in the New Statesman. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2021/10/why-are-the-tories-still-leading-in-the-polls Latest poll,
I think the key in assessing Labour’s chances is to remember they’re so far behind currently that turning it around in one GE is basically impossible. And that’s before we even get to the question of whether Labour alone can even form a UK government, given it has little presence in Scotland and the Tories have vast swathes of English constituencies in the safe seat bracket.
Agreed. I think Labour's only chance of gaining any sought of power in the foreseeable future is as part of a coalition/alliance with other parties.
I agree, except to caveat that we are in different paradigm of exceptional electoral volatility caused by the Brexit division. Someone put up a poll on the Britain Elects threads from late 2017 that showed Corbyn Labour at a whopping 45%. Only four years ago. His unpopularity precipitated the subsequent collapse, but Brexit was a big big part. Another ‘Get Brexit Done’ election would surely be another Johnson win and in this respect the problems over NI protocol keep that centre stage. Starmer’s problem is that he is coming at today’s problems with yesterday’s politics, the ‘sensible centre’. But there’s evidence that hasn’t been popular for a long time, there simply wasn’t a choice. Labour hasn’t yet forged an identity with this politics that even cuts through to its own supporters. But if the narrative is that the Country is still a shambles in two years, then anything is possible. But the most likely conclusion even to a continued shambles is we should Really Get Brexit Done.
My vote goes to the raving monster looney party. If it even exists still. Heck, the way our Government has handled everything that has gone on in the last two years alone is enough to imagine that's who they are in disguise.
The SNP's hegemony is beginning to wear a little thin with the Scotchlanders and 5% lead in the UK opinion polls is difficult to translate into Westminster seats. Well worth bookmarking this on your browser: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ There was a political scientist/commentator on Bill Maher's thing who was the author of the description of the issues of the democratic party which hamper it and I've developed the soundbite for the UK: the Labour party keep focussing on boutique politics but we're a Lidl nation. I don't know who said the during the Labour conference about the optics of discussions on whether a man can have a cervix when 30% of our nations' children are living in poverty...
The Labour Party isn’t focused on that though. It’s just easy to make it look like it is if you have four rabid national newspapers and a media army of opinion formers and think tanks to say it is so. It makes it impossible not to reply and boom! Apparently it’s all anyone cares about. But it starts with right wing trolling. Quite frankly, it’s pretty ******* rich of anyone to accuse the left of ignoring child poverty given the last decade or more. It’s an obvious distraction from the real causes. This obsession with the side NOT in power. If people want an excuse not to vote Labour - knock yourselves out, but don’t pretend it’s because the left isn’t interested in making stuff better.
@Moose as a Labour man, would you support a Labour agreement with the Libs/SNP to not contest certain seats if the price was Labour promising electoral reform (e.g. PR?) should they get into office/coalition? It's undeniable that the Conservatives have an electoral advantage under the current FPTP system but Labour always seem to shy away from electoral reform whenever they have been elected to govern. A mistake in my view.
I just used it as a single example though. The Tories are getting rid of the FTPA so I suppose Labour can't employ a full-time decent media team - they're waiting for a/the proper campaign.
Straight answer from me is ‘no’. The Libs can’t be trusted and shouldn’t be anywhere near Government in the UK. Giving up on FPTP would give them disproportionate influence imo. The SNP don’t need anything from Labour to win in Scotland right now, so the price of any coalition with them is not seats, but Indyref Two. The time to look at pacts is after an election in the event of a hung Parliament. People who don’t want a Tory Government can work out for themselves how to bring it about.
Funny that it’s the example of the year, on everyone’s lips. Almost like somewhere it’s being worked on very hard indeed.
I suspect that not doing a deal on those seats where Labour splits the vote with the Libs/SNP will make a hung parliament far less likely. Also, while I understand you feel that the Libdems would have a disproportionate influence under a PR system, the simple fact is that smaller parties are not given anywhere near enough representation under FPTP and, in some cases, no representation at all. I also agree that a SNP pact would come at the cost of indyref2 but I suspect the Scottish would be less like to vote to leave the union if they weren't faced with a perpetual Tory Westminster government. I was never a huge fan of PR but I've seen it work well in some countries (not so well in others!) and is preferably, imo, to a party getting < 40% of the vote having, in effect, unfettered power.
I’m not sure that the electoral maths does work out that if Labour always supports Lib or Green and if they in turn support Labour then a coalition would have won. That’s not even taking into account the damage it would do if such a democratic alliance was formed. It’s possible Labour would lose more ground in the former red wall (because they i part rejected Labour for ‘middle class’ cultural leanings) and the Lib Dem voters in the shires could run scared to the Tories if they think it’s just a vote for Labour. It all sort of is what it is. The Lib Dems spent most of the last election firing its ammo at Labour. It would need a very specific shared goal to bring them together. Brexit wasn’t enough, neither was stopping Johnson.
One of the only threats I can see to the Tories is that there is no one like Johnson. There is simply no suitable heir. A bit like Blair giving way to Brown, though Miliband D might have been in with a shout and Brown now seems like Churchill compared to those under Johnson. Gove? Truss? Raab? Rees Mogg? Even Sunak doesn’t really have the pizazz. Should Johnson get fed up with it, that could be a shuddering halt. But there is no sign he won’t fight the next election as yet.
Yes terrible leadership void for Tories at moment. Could say it about Labour as well but Boris seems more likely to need replacing than Starmer.
Too true - I would imagine that's where all the Tory money is going. Which begs the question who paid for this, and why?
Agree, but I’m not saying it’s likely. Boris is set to compete for another term and with an ambitious young bride, who is to say it wouldn’t be another after?
First Labour lead recorded in not quite living memory. Actually, it’s the first lead since Starmer led the revolt against Corbyn’s Brexit policy.
Unfortunately for Labour it will all change around again when Johnson is given the boot. If the polls show a consistent lead for Labour over the next few months then I fully expect a new PM and another Tory victory in the next GE. The fact that the Tory press has been turning against Johnson in recent days is the ground work imho.
The Tories are toast if they get rid of Johnson. He is the whole shebang, Brexit, the Red Wall win etc personified. No one else can do it. A return to old style Tories would risk Farage’s mob returning on the scene. So, no way Johnson goes. He is just being reminded by the press that he is there to do a job for them.
Who cares what the opinion polls are saying? They've never been even slightly accurate in living memory
The right wing press turning on the tories is, I believe, actually an indication that the they do not regard the Labour Party with any seriousness what so ever. I believe it is in reality an attempt to push the tories further to the right in frustration of the fact that the Government, currently, represents Labour light from their point of view. If you read their arguments you will see that they are not making criticisms that would make a person say "I must vote Labour", but rather "Tice and his lot are looking more like the tories than the tories". Labour are not even in the equation. And yes, the right wing press are trying to draw support away from the Government, and onto something that is a little more to their liking. But overall, the intent is to force the tories further right.
TBF to Magic Grandpa he was the only politician who gave an intelligent, grown-up opinion when asked about the UK's EU membership in that he was "...60-40..." in favour. Poll of polls here. De Pfeffel at 58% disapproval rating and Tory/Labour at 38%/36% voting intention.
I disagree. I think that the Tories have a very good track record of pushing their failings onto their leader when things go **** up. Even now they still blame May for the Brexit fiasco. I think that, if the polls and news cycle continue to be bleak for the Tories, Boris will be singled out as the reason. Especially as his approval rating is tumbling. I don't think it will mean a shift in policy or a return to more centrist Toryism. My bet would be someone like Liz Truss getting the nod. She's popular amongst the parliamentary party and voters. And she's seen as "getting Brexit done" with her trade deals (even though their actual value is debatable). We shall see though. But I don't think a surge this early in the election cycle is necessarily good news for Labour. The Tories still have plenty of time to get themselves sorted out before they have to go to the country. And the one thing the Tories are infinitely better at doing than Labour is being able to present a united and electable front when it's needed.
To be further fair, I was happy for him to get pushed on Labour’s Brexit policy. I thought Brexit wouldn’t stand up to a second vote and was wrong about that. Corbyn was completely trapped by Brexit. His first reflex, to respect the vote, was correct. However, most Labour supporters, including me, wouldn’t move on. You can see these things in retrospect, ho hum. Brexit has been a crap idea, but what can you do? Enough people wanted it. Ironically Starmer will now have to campaign on ‘make Brexit work’.
I think there is a touch of old thinking there. The Tory Party as was, for sure more united. This one? No way. It was built on expulsions and UKIP entryism. It could collapse into civil war without Johnson.
I think what we saw in the dying days of the May administration was pretty much civil war. Nobody, including me, thought they would unite behind Johnson. But they did and, thanks to our FPTP electoral system, he delivered them an 80 seat majority. They only need to keep that "loyal" 40%, or so, Tory base onside. If that looks like slipping history shows that a new Tory leader tends to bring the wavering "traditional Tory voters" back into the fold. When it comes to the crunch, the Tory base always seem willing to give the "new" administration another chance rather than defect to another party or abstain from voting. But, as I say, we shall see.
What we will see more and more is the development of the attack lines against Starmer. It would be massively in the Tory’s interest to make the next election another Brexit one, casting Starmer as the arch, duplicitous Remainer who wants to take us back by stealth.
Yes, totally agree. Even this morning the Telegraph were saying that Starmer voted 40+ times "against Brexit". Of course many of these votes were against the type of Brexit the government decided to pursue, not against Brexit itself, but that subtle difference is not mentioned. Of course this line of attack might backfire if Brexit continues to be the clusterfeck it is. Voting against "this", or indeed any Brexit, may be seen as a badge of honour as time goes by!
Labour making ground in the time honoured way, by saying as little as possible about policy. Mind you, if they did, no one would report it, so it’s hard to know if they have or not.
Yes, as Boney said, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. The Tories have been in self destructive mode just lately and the opposition only need to focus on that for now. Obviously they do need to have some policies and a positive message in their back pocket in preparation for the next GE though.
