Not much sign of a Truss bounce - quite the opposite. If the Lib Dems are polling in double digits nationally, I think they will do some damage to the Tories in the South and West at the next GE.
There are quite a few ‘ifs’. I am sure that while Truss cannot restore the support Johnson got at the last election, Tory support will be higher than 28% come the next GE. What will be important is where the votes land. If the Tories simply lose support in Labour seats and in Scotland, then the gains made by both the Lib Dems and Labour will be more moderate than this suggests. Nevertheless, the trajectory for the Tories is, at the moment, defeat.
That looks like a bit of an outlier - the intentions have stabilised to their 'natural' levels of Labour at around 40% and the Tories around 33%. https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ Be interesting to see what happens when Sunak and the Irony Lady have peddled enough lies to get elected then they can start peddling another set lies to get the Tories re-elected...
I'm really waiting for C4's Red Wall data to be updated as an awful lot of things have happened since January.
Also since Tweedle-Dumb and Tweedle-even-facking-Dumber have been airing all the Tories' dirty linen in public, de Pfeffel's approval ratings have marginally approved:
Really depends on what she does.....obviously! I think there is a growing panic about the cost of living crisis that is reaching right up to middle income families and perhaps even beyond that. Certainly the poor, including many pensioners, are already in big trouble. I think she has remained guarded about any big handouts because the target Tory membership that she is addressing don't like that sort of thing. But she isn't going to win an election if she loses the pensioners and aspiring middle classes. I suspect she will spend big as soon as she gets into No10. If she can buy a bounce with that then she'll go for an earlier election. If she tries to continue with BAU then, imo, she's toast when the higher bills, strikes and rampant food inflation really begin to bite.
Yes, I agree, she will do some giveaway stuff first of all. Tax cuts, support for fuel bills (but not enough to prevent it being a very hard winter). Attracting the votes of one hundred thousand, hawkish, Tory members is quite different to going to the Country to be re-elected, which has to be her no 1 priority. She has to throw those ex-Red Wall seats a bone. I think if she tries, as has been suggested, to take on the unions, slash workers rights etc. she will reap an absolute whirlwind. However, she looks likely to surround herself with ideological basket cases like JRM, Braverman and Badenoch. She’ll make a fool of herself over Europe and Rwanda for sure and a winter of discontent looks likely.
It is my opinion that it is time for the current incumbents to go . It is also my opinion that should Keef Starmer get a gallop on then 5th columnists like Wee Owen and that Bird who "fuggs like a champion" will put a spoke in the wheel . Ensuring another Tory Govt. We will see .
Yet they both encourage Sir Keith to adopt a working class politics. You and they are as one when it comes to the effect of middle class liberalism on the party of Labour. The reason you dislike them so much is because of their views on culture (though even then I doubt you’d find them so disagreeable). But my point is this. This is exactly why the Tories wage a culture war on race, transgender, the flag etc etc. so you become alienated from the party of Labour.
I shall find them both very disagreeable if they put a spoke in the wheel As I have said . We shall see . If I am correct then they both need to be outed\binned off . No ?.
Keir will put a spoke in his own wheel by failing to back the unions during a cost of living crisis. He should listen to what many people like them, trade unionists and working people are telling him. We believe in free speech. If they want to back transgender politics and some working class people won’t vote Labour in their own interests because of it, then what can you do? Throw people under the bus to please the Mail and Julia Hartley Brewer? My tip is make that offer irresistible. Make it clear that Labour is always on our side. Working people won’t care about transgender, Ash or Owen if they can get housing, warmth and decently paid.
You are absolutely correct. It is time to take on the CEOs and\or Chairman of companies who cut slash and then run with massive bonuses leaving those behind to work harder for the same money . If I ever see that Canut Thompson from the RM in the street I shall , and to quote Roy Keane, be throwing punches , that arsewipe has slashed and burnt at various companies over the last few years and pocketed millions. It is time this stopped .
Thread that may interest you, even if you don’t agree with all of the observations. https://twitter.com/elliemaeohagan/status/1565311513027567619?s=21&t=feomekoOb2Tmeu1AICG1RA
Without question, true. Take a random 1000 out of the Rookery and compare them to a random 1000 from the Henley Regatta. Easy to see where the diversity of culture and views is to be found.
Literally current Tory ideology and policy, though, isn't it. Funnel money from the masses to the few by any means possible while getting the minions (ie everyone outside the Top Six, economically speaking) to turn on one another and complain that the problem is middle class people liking avocados and a fortnight in Umbria, or something.
I think it was @Keighley who pointed out, many moons ago, the 30% is "The Core" Tory vote. Be interesting to see what effect Truss has on the Red Wall numbers - the last data is from January 2022.
Unless she can get polling regularly above 30% her period in office will be measured in weeks not years. I would say that outside the MPs on the Government payroll she has minimal support with ordinary Tory backbenchers. The LD percentage will be disappointing for them - but they were unfortunate that their conference had to be binned. Tactical voting intentions are not really captured in opinion polling, I reckon in about 10% of seats Labour voters would be happy to lend their votes to the LDs if there is a chance of defeating an incumbent Tory (recent by-elections have demonstrated this).
If things stay the same, I think tactical voting will be very popular at the next election. I don't think either Labour or the Libdems are inspiring people to vote for them. It will be a case of anyone but the Tories for many voters imho.
That's only believable in the red wall or other metropolitan seats - you'd have thunk that disaffected Tories would go to the LibDems.
Checked it, the Tories actually hit 55% on the 9th of April 2020 in a poll carried out by Opinium. The rest is history. The question now is just how Labour are going to balls it up? Not so clear what the lines of attack are for Starmer. Expect a lot of Transgender talk for the next two years.
Tories are stupid. Tax cuts might work (long shot), but they should have been implemented instantly. The way they have done it they get all the pain from markets/electorate and non of the (possible) upside. By the time they come into effect they will be toast.
They are also tax cuts that don't benefit anyone earning less than about 50k a year, which is about 87% of the working population. Always always puzzles me when people hear 'tax cuts' and assume it means them when it plainly doesn't. Unfortunately the infantilised approach to economics is very effective. Telling me how many pennies it puts in their pockets or their purse, historically obsessing over the price of a pint and a packet of fags while failing to explain to the little people what's really going on. The only thing worse is talking about the macro and micro economics of an entire country as if it's a household budget. What started as an attempt to put incredibly complex things into language we could understand ended up simplifying things to the point that they are completely inaccurate.
