I don’t think the Tories self-destruct has quite got to the point when many voters are jumping ship and taking their votes elsewhere. They are simply not saying they will vote Tory at the moment and we all know the Shy Tory phenomena. I would certainly back the Tories if I was betting on it now, but if this carries on who knows. Brexit the key again.
While it's encouraging for Labour that some Tory voters are turning away from the government, the first chart shows that they are not moving to Labour. Labour's share of the vote has basically flat lined this year. I would be disappointed with that if I were a Labour supporter. The question is why? Is it Starmer? Is it policy? Is it poor communication? They need to make a breakthrough soon, especially with the government performing so badly at the moment.
I don’t think you can expect anything but slow growth. Although the polls seem flat, Labour has progressed from typical post election 28-32% to a steady 36-39%. This during a period when campaigning opportunities have been limited. The problem remains that Labour struggles to get policy over because few media outlets are interested in it. But even a real lack of policy didn’t stop Cameron, who campaigned in 2010 without them. Labour has the further problem that while Starmer is sending it in a direction that may appear superficially more attractive to the voters (on his leadership) it hasn’t yet connected to many of them with ideas and risks repeating centrist errors.
Labour's largest Poll of Polls was just after the 2017 election! The 'short' y-axis really doesn't aid interpretation. And "National Voting Intention" really means bugger-all in our constituency based system.
This poll is looking more promising for Labour. Apparently, if it were reflected in a GE around 117 Tory MPs would lose theirs seats, including Johnson:
Well now we know where people draw the line. Corruption,mishandling of the biggest economic transition and a global pandemic is fine. Having a party when others couldn't is too far though. Clearly people don't give a **** until it was slightly unfair to them directly.
I won't ever vote Tory, but Starmer's determination to 'make brexit work' is so laughable I won't vote for Labour either. If they get that sorted, I'll vote Labour all day long.
I think it is an attempt to match the 3 word slogan approach that has worked so well for the Tories. Not sure how effective it will be as the damage Brexit is causing continues to grow and becomes more apparent though.
While Labour has a leader that appears to be about to burst out crying at any moment, they're shagged. Burnham is your man
I always think Burnham looks a bit teary eyed too. In fact I can’t think of a Labour Party MP who doesn’t look like they are about to burst into tears. Hardly surprising, given the state of the Country.
Just sayin' like And not a Tory However there are some who are against first past the post but when a majority win (Brexit) moan and groan on and on infinitely , that this is also not fair , so , democracy deniers, which system will you be happy with\accept?.
I am a centre-left remainer, but that's not relevant here. You are confusing a binary referendum, with the optimum system for electing constituency representatives.
Nice. Seems to show that Boris, over all, is the least unpopular PM of the last 23 years. Is that the point you were trying to make? Other than that, it appears to show that the trend for all prime ministers is pretty much the same. He's even got clear air between him and where Blair and Brown were when they reached their nadir. Thank you for pointing out that the only two Labout PMs of the last 23 years are ranked in the three most unpopular. You would even appear to be validating a few more years of Boris, if anyone reads this as you have presented it...
It doesn't look good for Johnson based on that. His collapse is on par with Brown following the financial crisis in 2008. It certainly is comparable to May in terms of his popularity at the same point in their tenure. I think my forecast that he'll be gone in the new year is looking good at the moment...but who will replace him?
Good thing for the Conservatives is that there are a number of strong candidates, most of them women. Unlike the other parties.
BoJo is ousted and the Queen dies on the same day. Moving into the power vacuum, President Mark Francois rises to meet the challenges facing the UK in it's hour of need.
Yes, just when you can't imagine anything worse than Bojo this happens and fate kicks you square in the gonads.
I’m more surprised on seeing Brown’s recovery after the credit crisis. He just lurched from disaster to disaster and any attempt to change or do things different felt forced and terrible. Sounds familiar. Albeit now with an added dash of elitism and deaths of 160,000+ people.
I know what you mean that (Brown's graph) does look like an upward trend. Also for all of De Pfeffel's branding as a 'populist' he's only had a spike appearing as errr.... popular.
Does that take into account tactical voting though? I guess tomorrow's by-election will give an indication. I would have thought that disgruntled Tories would be more comfortable voting Libdem but I guess that may be partly geographic.
Coincides with the reasonable assumption that they are not abandoning Johnson because they have suddenly been convinced by another party or have turned against Brexit. A long way to go to the next election and serious conflict with the EU could reverse that apathy towards another term for Bojo. Huzzah!
Yeah, the Reform UK bit is the most interesting one for me as that's the obvious new home for disaffected Tories who spent 2010-2017 voting UKIP.
I'm totally with you on that! Given the so far 'not as promised' consequences of Brexit he could change tack, but he knows that too many lifelong Labour supporters are 100% behind Brexit no matter what.
