Do We Survive?

Except we didn’t have Geri for any of the run in which is probably what relegated us.

 

That and our attitude to the pandemic.

 

Absolutely, the 3 month break was either a blessing or a curse depending on how you utilised it. Unfortunately we seemed to get it in our head abandoning the season was the best approach and that it was also likely to be what happened.

 

Yes, we would have done so.

 

Yes I think that is partly why the club was so demotivated about starting the season again. We looked like we had just saved ourselves miraculously, only to restart with everything to lose and our rivals everything to gain. It was the opposite for our friends up the road. Dead and buried if the season was cut short, they suddenly had a new lease of life, took the chance to change manager, achieved a miraculous recovery and took the momentum into the following season and this one, where relegation has never been a risk. Had the season not restarted we would have been 2 leagues above them instead of being in the same league and losing to the ****s.

 

I think it's a bit early to talk about 'must win' games, but we need to at least see an uptick in performance against Villa, if not a result.

An industrious loss, like West Ham would be just the tonic we need.

 

Even in their case, they would have gone down had Blackburn not self-destructed in their final game against them after taking the lead. Seems they weren’t bothered about going to that dump again, or maybe most footballers are just thick…

 

...and Charlton, who finished 3rd bottom, capitulating over the last few games. ***** picked up 9 points more than Charlton over the last 5 games to finish 3 points above them.

 

I went to see my Mum and Dad yesterday. Mother mentioned the Watford V Brighton game, then did a pitying laugh. A new low.

 

I'm a rampant optimist, the only argument I can make for us staying up is that no form is permanent. A team that loses a lot will at some point start winning and vice versa. Even still I can't see us winning enough to stay up regardless of if/when our form improves.

The only other argument is that our awful run has coincided with our best player being injured. Sarr coming back means we should be better. But we have lost so much ground during his time out that I doubt his return changes things enough in our favour.

 

That's why not signing some central defenders in the summer seems to have had such a damaging effect - it's all very well thinking that as long we are not too adrift by the next transfer window (and as it turned out, it took us another three weeks to drop into the relegation zone!) and we get the defenders (in fairness, we did get Kamara and Samir, who are doing quite well but it may not be enough) then we will be OK. But then think what conceding all those goals and not keeping clean sheets must have done for the rest of the team's confidence, meaning that even with Sarr's return (though I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he was clearly rusty from not having trained with the team) we are likely to continue not winning, suggesting a situation that's far worse than something that can simply be fixed with a couple of defenders.

 

We will also have Etebo and Nkoulou who are two of our best players also, and Baah back very soon. Plus we Foster back in goal and lets not forget we also have four new players, three of which have looked good so far and the 4th we have yet to see in action.

So add all that lot to Sarr and they could indeed change things enough in our favour to make a real difference.

 

Don’t you see that’s exactly why we’re going down? Apparently two of our best players just happened to have only played about three games between them this season, one was a free agent no other club wanted until we picked him up in October and then instantly got injured, the other is on loan from Stoke City and also got injured after a few games.

Plus what is this obsession with a 19 year old kid from Rochdale that hasn’t played a single game for us yet? You really think he’s our saviour?

Absolutely desperate stuff.

 

Why do you have to assume the returning players will have no effect, I prefer to think they possibly will.

Try thinking positive for once in your life instead of being an eternal pessimist about virtually everything, you never know you might like the experience...

GET BEHIND OUR TEAM COME ON U ORNS​

 

It's not about pessimism TVOR, it's analysing the past and using that as an indicator of future behaviour, performance and outcomes. None of which point to a level of improvement that will be significant enough to achieve staying up.

Nkolou is an improvement on our defenders but managed 3 games before getting injured.
Etebo looked competent at best
Baah has never made an appearance above league one level

It's not the same as introducing Deulofeu into the side is it?

Even Hodgson, who's job it is to keep us up, practically said 'we'll give it a good crack, but it's unlikely'. Not one person here is not behind the team, just at the same time they recognise that team is just not good enough to outscore Newcastle on points and will join Norwich and Burnley in the Champship next year.

For example if we were to beat Palace, Everton, Leeds, Brentford and Burnley at home which would be a remarkable up turn in home form we would still only get to 30 points. Be as positive or as negative as you like about the situation the probability is we're going down

 

There's absolutely no evidence that Etebo or Nkoulou are two of our best players.

Also, we can all safely assume that Baah won't play a single minute for us this season. 30 appearances in League One last season to a few U23 appearances this season. His injury was unfortunate timing but he shouldn't have even been here to pick up the injury, he should have been sent out on loan in August. Why young players sign for us I don't know, we manage them horrifically.

 

Oh, I don't know. Simply by process of elimination ie they can't be worse than some of the other dross.

 

It’s just the usual scenario of they’ve not played for ages so must be better than the ones who have recently been playing. We’ve been here a million times before with just about every position on the pitch. Last season it was mainly rotated around Deeney/Gray/Perica/Success. Players get magically less crap to the point they can become our best players by just not playing.

 

To be honest the performance against Brighton had relegation written all over it, but as I and others have said Sarr finally starting again could make a significant difference but it still might not be enough. I think the points needed for survival will be higher than recent seasons, realistically 17th position will be taken up by Brentford or Leeds who will finish on 38-40 points, the total we need to aim for or even higher in case of goal difference.

And it's a sad incitement of recent recruitment and conditioning that we have become so reliant on a 23-year-old winger in the last three seasons (we also looked relegation certainties without him in 2019/20) when we managed fine before we'd even signed him. How did we manage to get to 11th and a cup final with the same personnel barring Sarr (Deulofeu, Pereyra, Doucoure providing the creativity, link-up play and moments of magic) when the very next season we looked almost totally hopeless with them?

 

The absence of absence is not evidence of evidence

 

What I don't get is that so many of you believe that the likes of Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley, Leeds, Brentford & Everton are capable of getting more points than us, why is that and have you even looked at who those teams have left to play?

I bet most of you have not!

The way I look at it there are more than enough points available for us to remain in the Premier League and until there are not I believe we can still get the points we need to survive.

Until very recently Norwich and Newcastle were in a far worse position than us but then they won a few games, so why are you lot so convinced that we cannot do the same and that they in turn could go on a losing streak...

THE ORN'S ARE STAYING UP​

 

Well clearly they are capable of getting more points than us as they currently have more, or have games in hand. Whether they do or not is another issue

I’ve looked at their fixtures and you’re right. They don’t have to go away to Utd, Liverpool, City and Chelsea like us

 

They don’t need to get more, they already have more, that’s the problem at hand.

 

This has been explained to you so many times already, no matter how many times you drone on reposting the exact same comment, and no matter how many times you've sat in a tree and watched Kwadwo Baah through his bedroom window.

There are many reasons why the vast majority of people believe we are currently more likely to be relegated than not, and it's based partly on the improved performances both in unrelated games and directly against us of our competitors, and partly (a much larger part) on how appalling we have, continue to be, and are as a football team. Nothing on the pitch has shown any change in the direction of travel so far, nor reason to believe it is coming. If it does, it will be very strongly against the evidence we have all been served up with to this point. Across the season so far, we have been the second worst team in the league in terms of collecting points - it's very simple.

Even if your dream of other teams suddenly doing much worse comes to pass, you seem to forget that there isn't one relegation spot. As it stands, even if we do improve over another team, we would still be relegated. Until there is any evidence on the pitch whatsoever that we are even possibly capable of getting the performances and results required to be in with a chance of staying up, it's illogical and hands-in-your-ears-yelling-na-na-na-I-can't-hear-you levels of behaviour to constantly insist that we will do so.

 

I haven't done it yet but I think I will post all of the teams fixtures that could possibly finish below us, and then see what you all think. Unless someone who is more computer savvy than me could just do it using their computer skills as I would have to type the whole lot out manually.

 

Also, if our success is based on the upturn in results of a) a new manager and b) the return of players, why is that not the case for Newcastle (a), Everton (a and b) Brentford (b), Leeds (b)?

 

Did I claim it wasn't?

However you lot do claim that we are not capable of winning enough points, why are we the only team you are writing off

 

Be careful. You’re quick to write you never claimed something but have quoted me and put “you lot do claim” when I wrote nothing of the sort

 

I’m also writing two other teams off as well, I’ve got a sneaking suspicion three teams will be relegated this season, but don’t quote me on that.

 

HB1 has been working overtime today.

 

Nothing is impossible until it’s impossible of course. However you need to consider how many matches we would need to win to out sprint 3 other teams, then look at our remaining fixtures, then look at how many points we have won in the last 11 games or so, how many goals we’ve scored in the last 6 or so league games, and how we’ve played in the last game. Then you may lose a little of this irrational optimism.