Do We Survive?

Yes.

Surviving actually won't be that hard for any team who manages to string a few wins together, because the points required to stay up will be low again.

Even Palace might get drawn in if they get a string of bad results (and their form isn't great right now as it is). They're only 8 points clear of 18th; lose to the wrong teams and they'll be looking over their shoulder.

 

3 x 0-0 with plenty of injuries and suspensions would be perfect but we know it won’t end that way. The challenge at the moment is to win a few games to just stay in the race.

 

Au Contraire, we do NOT know it won't end that way!!!

That is where you and I differ, I prefer to hope it will end that way whereas you don't seem to be able to contemplate the possibility that it could at all.

 

It’s just called probability TVOR, that’s why we’re not all multi millionaires unfortunately, because if football results all ended up exactly how we wanted them too our accas would win every single week wouldn’t they!

Three draws would be nice, but it’s highly unlikely that’s how the results will pan out simply because you want them to, and because it would suit WFC best.

 

It's going to hurt when Palace beat us.

 

Again you miss my point

I said I HOPE that it will end up that way, and IMO that is what all WFC supporters should at least be doing, which is HOPING that things might actually go our way , It's called getting behind your team!!!

But oh no you guys prefer to not even consider that things could just go our way, by making statements like " but we all know it won't end that way"

FFS guys just get behind your team and at least try to SUPPORT them, instead of continually dissing them

Just another point, it seems that quite a few professional pundits now seem to think we are likely to stay up, but a lot of you alleged WFC supporters don't seem to be able to even contemplate that we could still survive

 

Oh great, so we’re as good as relegated then.

 

Professional pundits who consistently never scratch below the surface, probably couldn't name more than 5 Watford players if put on the spot outside a match they were directly working at and are probably also saying Newcastle, Burnley and Norwich are also likely to stay up too?

 

If you're hanging your hat on this now, then I fear for you. Most people on this message board probably have more knowledge than the so called 'professional pundits'.

 

I can contemplate that POSSIBILITY. You don't seem to be able to contemplate PROBABILITIES. I reckon we have about 50% CHANCE of finishing above Norwich, 40% chance of finishing above Burnley and maybe 40% chance of FINISHING above ONE of Leeds/Everton or Brentford. So the chance of EACH of those 3 things happening is 8% based on my %s....

 

I basically agree with the 1st part of your sentence, however as for the rest of your sentence the two pundits I saw on Sky this morning actually predicted that the relegation places would be filled by three of these four: - Brentford, Burnley, Norwich or Leeds.

I get your point about pundits, but it has to be said that more and more of them seem to think we are going to survive, which is more than a lot of our own fans are saying.

So why is that?

As although our fans are probably more knowledgeable about WFC, the pundits probably have a more overall knowledge about the other teams in the relegation battle, like their run ins etc. than most WFC fans do. Therefore probably the pundits can give a more all round synopsis of how things might just end up at the bottom.

 

How have you come to your probability figures as surely they should be possibilities, as nobody actually knows what will happen especially in football.

Have your figures taken into account how other teams might perform for the rest of the season for instance, or the fact that our team has been considerably strengthened recently and is arguably now better than earlier in the season, which could mean that we might actually go on a winning streak similar to our losing streak, what would your probability figures look like then?

At the end of the day you have your opinions and I have mine, so lets just wait and see what happens

 

The bookies have us nailed on to go down, currently the best odds you can get are 4/11. I trust them over the "experts" every time.

The trouble with where we are right now is that we are relying on teams around us to drop more points that us. It's just not going to happen. We're not getting relegated on our results in the last 14 games, it's the previous 24 that have killed us off. Villa was a nice surprise, but look at what Burnley did to the team that battered us last week. We just have to enjoy the results we do get between now and relegation day.

 

I wonder what will happen to the bookies odds after we beat "Palarse" this week, me thinks they might just change.

 

It’s not even so much relying on the teams above as as well, Burnley below us are a big concern. They have two games in hand and their goal difference is -9 which tells a story. That’s mid table goal difference, yes they’ve only won 2 but they’ve drawn 11. A few more goals and some of those draws become wins and they’re comfortably safe. With Weghorst now they’ve probably got that.

 

I think I can summarise by saying “It’s a funny old game”.

 

Yes of course I have taken that into account. What %s would you give each of those events ? We can then see what % likelihood you see in us surviving.

 

I've not found it very funny so far this season

 

I'm not into percentages or projected figures when it comes to football because football is such an unpredictable game. However I am into trying to be positive about my team, I just wish more of our so called supporters were with me on that

 

We are all TRYING to be positive

 

You're certainly trying.

 

My heart says yes but the head says no. I will reevaluate after the Palace game Wednesday.

 

I think my %s were fair, don't you ? Could easily have gone lower based on relative form ?

 

Massive game.. I'd go as far as to say that's an 8 pointer.

 

Lighten up mate, forget your ******* percentages and just look on the bright side because...

THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT THE FUTURE IS YELLOW AND THE ORN'S ARE STAYING UP​

 

More than that I'd say.
We're going to have a sweepstake at work to see who's the first to pile drive through Wilf.

 

Given your sound rational logic I'm disappointed you're setting your expectations so low, why not European qualification ?

 

Now don't be silly even I except that is possibly unlikely this season, but next season why not

 

You're so NEGATIVE.....

 

I think you’ve miscalculated as the probabilities that we finish above each are correlated rather than independent. If we we finish above one of Leeds/Everton/Brentford chances are pretty good we’ve finished above Norwich too. I reckon there is a 30-40% chance we stay up, personally, with around a 40% chance of finishing above one of Leeds/Everton/Brentford/Newcastle reduced by the possibility that Norwich or Burnley also have an uptick in that circumstance keeping us in the bottom 3.

Fivethirtyeight has us with a 29% chance of staying up but I think their probability rankings overrely on their ratings of team quality which are reflective of past performance and I think have failed to correctly weight Brentford’s nosedive. Last time out in the PL their ratings (based on past xG performance etc) really rated us which meant they systematically underrated the probability of our relegation and I think they are doing the opposite this time. (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/)

 

Wednesday has 0-1 Palace written all over it

 

No you've misunderstood.
The %s are all related of course (ie a great run and they all go up, a crap run and the all drop) but my 40% chance of finishing above one of L/E/B is aggregated ie I think we have maybe 10-15% chance of finishing above any one of them.
29% seems incredibly optimistic bearing in mind that's 6 points from the last 36 or so, and two goals in the last 7 league matches ?
My logic is that a low % is due to the need to finish above 3 teams not just one or two. Take each team individually, look at league position and form and ask yourself without prejudice whether you think it is more likely than not that we would finish above each. As soon as you need 3 or more outcomes to happen that are approx 50% or less, you soon get to some very low %s.

 

How are you still constantly smugly telling others they 'miss the point' and misunderstand when you are still insanely incapable of understanding the difference between hoping for something and believing it is likely to happen based on assessing the actual situation?

Everyone here hopes it happens, but that is completely distinct from whether they currently think it will or not.

Claiming that no one has the ability to 'even contemplate that we could still survive' just further shows how incapable of making or understanding that distinction you are, no matter how many times it's explained to you.

 

I think your methodology isn’t working though as 8% is much too low, even though your individual percentages are reasonable, and it’s due to the interdependency. 20%-25% survival chance seems about right to me,