Werewolf XVI: Day 1

Ahem.

I would like to play a cameo role at some point. If we win, post match entertainment will be an hour free session at the Brothel, which actually doesn't have a name yet, so if anybody has any ideas, I'm listening.

 

Condense down the evidence for me then, perhaps i've missed it?

 

Simms is right only things we have is the two message implicating Darave and Cude ,therefore the only logical course of action is to vote for one or the other .

 

I'm voting for TVOR. He is being VERY different to what he usually is like on Werewolf. And I genuinely think both Cude and Darave are good.

 

Some very interesting points made so far, especially post #130 by miked2006 which almost made me reconsider from voting for Cude. However I say for now we go purely on the only concrete infromation we have so far- the messages. All this talk of VOR will probably lead to him being the focus of the messages tomorrow- at which point we can decide whether to go for him or not

 

Personally, a lot of what Diamond has said makes a lot of sense.

It's Day One, we have nothing but two messages to go on. It's far too early to read anything into writing styles or lack of activity. The best thing to do is vote on what we have. Gradually things will become clearer with patterns, but we're nowhere near that stage.

I'll regrettably vote for Cude, for lack of any other option.

 

Saying all that though I haven't followed the Wearwolf games for a few years on here so I have no idea what VOR's usual style of play is

 

I seem to be starting at centre back... I am naturally a striker or play anywhere across the midfield, so I'm ready to step up of Cude's services are not available for the second half.

Genuinely though, I think simms is probably right. However hard it may be to believe Cude is evil, it's the best shout we have for the first day, and if it is correct, will be a good start to the game. Sorry Cude mate, I think I'm probably going to have to put my vote on you today. Let's hope we can have one final swansong of a 45 minutes tonight if people do vote for you to be lynched.

 

That said, I do believe that both Darave and Cude are good, so I'm happy to be swayed if anyone can make a solid case for somebody else.

 

I'll be blind drunk so I'll be a perfect lino.

 

As much as i'd like to tell you all to f**k off. It's difficult to. Being an experienced player you get targeted, and that's by the wolf as well. I just can't for the life of me see why the wolf would post first - and that's really all I can plead innocence on. Other than that I know being named on Day 1 is the death post and I'd take that view as well.

You can vote me off, but it'll day 1 to evil and wouldn't tell you much. I can't argue with those that vote for me though unfortunately I can't say my role, other than being a reverse seer tinker.

 

Squibba care to explain yourself? Very suspicious. Does anyone know if he voted for me before or after my last post??

I am going for VOR. My logic was made clear in the post above. By going for VOR, we will know more about VOR, & PO (and myself now, eek!). That is two (or three if you think I'm being wolflike) players instead of the one we would get by going for Cude, who we all suspect innocent.

It also puts much more pressure on the two posts tomorrow. I think there are various pressures it places on both posters, like which order they post, whether they say Cude is innocent or not, whether they look at Cude or not.

I think this gives us a better chance at finding team evil than going after Cude who is just as likely guilty as anyone else in the village.

Just to clarify, he is just as innocent because I think that the only explanation for the wolf saying somebody was innocent would be to clear his own name. But he would need to go second, as otherwise the seer could just look at him. So there is no reason I can think of why the first poster would say Darave unless he was the seer. Which means the wolf is going after Cude.

 

If nothing significant happens before 6 I think I'll take a punt on TVOR too. Sorry.

 

For the less experienced players like myself, what is TVoR normally like?

I did make a quick list of who as online when both posts were made, I assumed that with both posts made so early (and so close to one aother), and with 352 being quite active, there wasn't too long between the emails being sent and then posted by 352 - Does anyone think there'd be anything in this?

 

I think it's sort of an unwritten rule that you don't go snooping about who is online or looking at their profiles to see what specifically they're up to.

 

Ah really?

My bad.

 

As I said earlier people need constant reminding to vote based on the probability of the messages. They are far more indicative of the truth than guesswork based on whether someone posts as they would in a previous game. We will always be a day behind team evil if we bugger up todays vote.

 

Any reason why? one of the messages is true therefore one of them must be evil ,ergo only logical conclusion is to vote for one or the other ! if we get wrong one today we lynch an evil tomorrow. worst case scenario we get rid of a tinker ! best case scenario we get a wolf !

 

Very odd that so many would vote so early.

 

I presume you weren't around in the early werewolf days of the reverse seer tinker? Can I suggest you also read the rules Cthuhlu.

Other than that, I can understand why you believe i'm evil - Someone kindly named me in a message - However I'm highly intrigued as to why you think I may be the Alpha Wolf? Something you're not telling us yourself?

 

I think I already did Jelly.

For everyone else who is skim reading the thread...both messages came at more or less the same time: both believed they were posting first.

The first message received claimed darave is good. A wolf or a seer posted that. A seer would post that if he did view darave and saw he was good. A wolf would post that - well for absolutely no other reason than if it was darave himself. Under no other circumstances would a wolf post a message saying a good person was good...especially as he was posting first. I believe it was the seer, albeit it maybe a novice seer, since he said in the message he referred back to the previous game to make his call. Probability wise, a seer viewing anybody would have a 5/6 chance of viewing them as good. This is what has happened here.

The second message received claimed cude as evil. A wolf posted that (as shown above for those not still skim reading). A wolf would not say a good person was good. A wolf would only say a person (since they don't know any more than us for now) is evil...especially as they too thought they were posting first. A seer viewing cude would have a 1/6 chance of viewing him as evil.

That is a compelling argument both players named are good...or worst case darave has big balls and is trying his luck from last time around. Whether he would play that ace on Day 1 though is doubtful. Either way nothing there implicates cude.

TVOR has got a bee in his bonnet with cude....look over the last three games at least - he is always accusing cude. The last game for those that played will remember he just wouldn't give up. He is normally a vocal player....very vocal in fact. Where is he today? The first rule of being a wolf is keep a low profile, and if he is a wolf he is a novice wolf since he has been good in every game I've played with him before. He hasn't uttered a word hardly whereas normally 50% of the posts would be his referring everyone back to his previous post #63 and #72 and #94 and #etc etc.

 

huh? yeah one of them is true therefore what you say?

 

In previous games the wolf has ended up naming people as good at random in order to through people off the scent. I agree with most of what you say PO but there is no reason for me to believe anyone else is more likely than cude at this time. More than happy to be proven wrong though.

 

PO what if 2nd message is seer and 1st message is a very canny wolf causing a lot of confusion ! I think the 2nd message was the seer . this TVOR stuff is just idiocy from last yr imho.

 

Very odd that you are judging everybody else's moves/tactics.

 

I have my suspicions about you Simmsy.

 

Can I just check, what is the basis behind voting for TVOR. At this point that surely has to be the biggest waste of a vote?

 

In past games i've found one of the best ways to expose people is wild accusations and seeing how they react. It certainly beats the boring folk who hide in the backgrounds afraid to be killed or found out early on.

 

Norway - I like it you are thinking logically but let me challenge you on this.

"Very canny wolf causing a lot of confusion"

Wouldn't it be wise for the wolf to go "This person is Evil" - especially if he did go early and post first? That way if the wolf was named by the Seer there's even more confusion as to who to vote for? The standard tactic is for the wolf to name someone evil - as people come to the conclusion - as some are now, that the evil person is viewed by the Seer. Especially on day one when the odds of the Seer viewing an evil person are against him.

 

Hang on a second - you were saying a minute ago that you were amazed that people weren't sticking to the facts? Now you're wildly accusing people?

 

I'm unconvinced by some of the arguments for Cude but he has his supporters. Given that the other wolves won't know him, only the traitor would stick up for him? Unless wolves are trying to cause confusion?

So here's a question - who has a statiatically better chance than Cude of being evil?