Werewolf XVI: Day 1

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 1, 2015.

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  1. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    Apparently I am not allowed to do what I wanted to, though I am sure it has been done in the past, but hey ho them's the rules according to 352.
  2. simms

    simms vBookie

    That is based on the assumption that you know which message is which, which we don't.

    Even if that were true, which it isn't known yet, that isn't really much of a better gamble, considering we'd be a day behind the messages or in constant doubt over the nature of a player.
  3. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    I can't be sure the first message is the seer. It would be odd to basically out your self as an inexperienced player in your message by saying you had to go back to see what evil looked like. Also the message coming so early how did they have a chance to compare the games. This may be a long shot but I am leaning to message one wolf message two seer. Meaning improbably but not impossibly we already have two bad guys or a wolfie and a tinker.
  4. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Darave is sharp. There is no way he would vote first that he is good, knowing that the Seer could just look in to him. That would be suicidal on the first day. If he wanted to do that, he would have gone second. The chances of getting an evil as a seer (on the day it is most often least likely) and having a 'good' post from the wolf is absolutely unheard of.

    The Alpha must therefore have said the name of who he wanted to get rid of.

    This gives Cude a 4/30 chance of being good, rather than a 5/30.

    Voting for absolutely anybody who is not Cute (or Darave) is the rational choice to make.
  5. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    It's been brought up several times yet no one is prepared to answer it....why, if the first message is from the wolf, would he post first claiming a good person is good? He would be better off not posting at all. What possible benefit is it for team evil on Day 1 for a wolf to say darave is good? A 5/6 probability suggests a seer viewed darave and saw him as good. That's an 83% chance. If therefore it was a seer (83% probability remember) viewing Darave as good who is therefore left to out Cude as bad?
  6. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    The only answer to this line of thought is that Darave is the wolf, and he is protecting himself.

    Which makes no sense as to why he went before the seer.
  7. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    Surprise surprise, Mike2000 & Philipine have voted for me, and Mike2006 is trying just a bit too hard to convince others to do the same, Traitor me thinks!

    Hopefully logic will prevail and I will survive the lynching tonight, and if I do by all means check me out tomorrow Seer, but if I don't I urge you to view Mike2006, I think he is the traitor, and because he is being so vociferous about diverting others away from in Cude, I tend to think good might just have got lucky and managed to see a wolf 1st time out, Cude, though I hasten to add I could be wrong!!!

    Furthermore, the wolf did give his message rather early, and we all know Cude had to go out early to take an exam today, I'd say the early wolf message adds to my suspicion ::)
  8. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

  9. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    You are an experienced player.
  10. simms

    simms vBookie

    It isn't unheard of, in fact it's been done a few times before. The wolf says someone is good, and if they aren't killed that day, they use up a day for the seer to view them. Wastes a day for the seer the following day.
  11. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Not at all,,, I just can't fathom how anybody can perceive Cude as a wolf based on the actual messages (isn't that what simms, moog diamond et al keep banging on about? Vote on the messages?) Read and understand the messages, think about them not just the names they have thrown up.

    You I admit are likely as bad as anybody else at this point...but you, me, mike anybody else are MORE likely to be bad than Cude imo. I play Backgammon for money, quite a lot of money in fact. It is not a game of luck it is a game of probabilities so I understand odds. In a two horse race where one has a 5/6 chance and one has a 1/6 chance yet your betting odds are still evens which one would you pick?
  12. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    You have 7 votes now and they can't all be evil.

    Nevertheless, I'm about to vote for Cude based on the very slightly greater chance he is evil. I've read the arguments about 5/30 and 4/30 odds because the Alpha Wolf knows he isn't Cude (presumably) but them's the breaks and better adhering to the messages than some random musings and unfounded accusations. He's probably good but hopefully not.
  13. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I can't believe that your only defence is that voting for you as a referee is a better reason than I listed.

    Also the fact you have gone very very quiet after being accused, when you posted so much so early

    Nervous ?
  14. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Piping up now the pressure is on eh...

    I am not one to sit back and hide in these games. But I search for logic, and will always try and make my logic clear.

    I am not saying you are guilty. I am saying that Cude (aside from Darave) is the least likely to be guilty.

    I am arguing purely that Cudes chance of being evil is 4/30ths and the rest of us has 5/30ths. I am more likely to be guilty through logic than Cude, and as are you.

    The reason I think we should chose you, like I have said already, is that you would tell us more than any other player. It is not a random choice. We could start to look into who is defending you if you are guilty. If you are killed and are good, I would certainly have a good chance of being killed tomorrow.

    This game is about piecing together clues, working out who the wolves are (which mostly comes from the messages), but also who the traitor is and who the masons are. Working out these, which you can do by reading posts and picking up on patterns, are all part of the picture.

    I go for a network approach to hunt down the wolves. I go for the most likely based on comments, and then go along the network based on odds (somebody heavily defending an evil is more likely to be a traitor etc).

    Yes, I play a load of strategy games... That makes me cool :(
  15. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    First day and it's already kicking off :mengoal:
  16. 352

    352 Moderator

    A friendly reminder from your friendly neighbourhood moderator... Voting closes in one hour. Make sure your get your vote in before 8pm or risk a cruel demise tonight.
  17. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    It is like everybody betting on the same random horse (but one that looks more confident than the rest), with some taking odds of 10/1 and others choosing to take odds of 8/1. It makes no sense to not go for the higher odds.
  18. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    right just got back to devon after a long drive on the m5, read through this thread. ive got some thinking to do, but im most likely to vote for cude. sorry.
  19. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    I dont know I am totally bemused
  20. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I voted Mike purely based on instinct and his comments earlier where he was quick to use the late start as an excuse to say he won't be around a lot today yet he's been fairly active..

    Suspicious to me but just instinct and I'm probably very wrong but I don't think Cude or Darave are bad either so had to avoid them two.
  21. simms

    simms vBookie

    Miked, your basing your odds on a guess of which message is which. Fair enough you believe which one is which but you don't know for certain, so to try and sew the seeds of doubt over cude based on logic is odd when your logic is based on an assumption of your own.
  22. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I'm in the British Library as I've taken the week off of work to revise.

    However I now am choosing to be on here instead of revise nuclear deterrent, even though I should really go home...
  23. nairobi hornet

    nairobi hornet Reservist

    Interesting talk of all the possibilities. For me we have to go with cude, although not positive, purely from the message (sorry if your good but remember you arguing for this in previous games). If it's not him we know darave is good and hopefully the seer will look at someone who has been implicated today
  24. simms

    simms vBookie

    By my calculations it is too late and cude is to be lynched.
  25. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    Abso has voted for me and I can't see any suggestion why. No way I'll be lynched tonight based on the votes already cast so Abso, can I ask why?

    Edit - had read your message about your daughter picking a random name but hadn't remembered it was you who said it. Sorry!
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2015
  26. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    I'm pretty dammed sure Cude will be found good should he get lynched tonight. In order I am going to go for those that want him lynched for as long as I survive. Diamond is first (and should I die tonight I suggest you look very closely at him)
  27. simms

    simms vBookie

    I think he said he couldn't decide and had to vote early, so he let his daughter pick a name at random.
  28. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Because you have a crap avatar and are clueless would be my best guess. Wish I had waited now to vote.
  29. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    You are right, it is based upon an assumption, as is everything in this game. Even if both comments claimed that somebody was evil, we would be making an assumption that the person was evil (although one with a very high probability).

    It makes absolutely no sense for a wolf to claim that they are good on the first day, first.

    If anybody could find a hole in this, I will accept that my argument is entirely flawed.

    Otherwise, we have to go off the (in my opinion) very strong assumption that the first post is the seer.
  30. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    With KO approaching in the football match Cude better have a great first half.
  31. 352

    352 Moderator

    Cude>2< has been voted to be lynched. With only 4 players left to vote, he cannot overturn his majority.

    Other players yet to vote should still cast a vote. I will be asking for excuses from those who do not register a vote before 8pm, and these players may be killed tonight.

    Cude>2< can now only be saved by the Governor. (See the rules thread if you're confused right now, as the Governor is a new player role for this year's game.)

    If the Governor wishes to save Cude>2<, could he/she send me an email to let me know ASAP. In fact, if you could let me know either way that would be best, so that the lynching or pardoning can be done promptly. If I have no email by 8:45pm, the lynching will go ahead after the first pint after the village football match against L*t*n.
  32. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Sorry Cude. I actually think you are good but think the only way to learn something definitive from today is by lynching you.
  33. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    When you voted for me I had only made two comments...

    Very weird.
  34. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    It's settled Cude dies tonight, I hope he is the evil one because we then have two evils or possibly three.

    If the seer did indeed view Cude as evil then Darave must be a Wolf as the 1st clue must have been from the wolf, who will have declared himself GOOD!!! As for the 3rd possible, I really do think Miked2006 worked too hard at trying to divert us away from Cude and he even did the same for Darave to a lesser degree, so I think he is The Traitor.
  35. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

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