Gambling Thread

Pudil to be booked in the play off final is at 9/4 on skybet, decent value I would say.

 

I forgot about that meme.

 

Apologies, just seen this. I won quite a few free bets off them over some months and so they promotion banned me, as they do anyone who regularly gets the offers come through.

 

Can anybody point out a flaw in this?

Using bet365's £50 in play offer (bet 50 before k.o, get 50 free bet in play) this offer only comes up occasionally, usually for the champions league but lets assume they do it for the euros

in this example i'll use the first euro game France v Romania

3 friends put £50 on over 1.5 match goals at 1.4 (£50=£70)

then each of you put the free £50 bet on 1-0 france (£50=£237)
0-0 (£50=£350)
1-0 romania (£50=£950)

If the score is anything but these 3 outcomes, everybody profits £20 from their original £50 stake on over 1.5 match goals

if its the correct score then you split the winnings 3 ways. if its 1-0 to france it would only be £29 profit but its something. this game is only an example but some 'experts' could choose a game where we could hope for the weaker team to grab a 1-0 win

i've never actually used this specific offer. so anybody who has, is there restrictions on withdrawing, e.g rolling it over x amount of times, the bonus winnings not returning the 50 stake (meaning a profit of just £12.33 each), or any other terms and conditions that may be a flaw in the idea?

a friend told me this and i can presume theres something wrong with it. you dont just get a 50 pound free bet, you have to actually put down another 50 quid and get refunded if the first one loses. this is all very confusing for me at 3am

 

Yes there are a few problems.

Firstly, for most offer like this there is a minimum odds requirement, usually 1.5. Secondly, the in-play bet doesn't usually appear until up to 5 minutes after kickoff, meaning goals can be scored early. Finally, placing in-play bets can take some time, odds can shift, goals can be scored as you're doing it.

There are ways of guaranteeing money from this though.
Firstly bet on a match result, home or away, and lay the bet off on Betfair so either outcome you'll be down a few £ only on your initial bet.
Then wait to half time. Why? Because the free bet will be in, the odds are stable and no goals will be scored.
During half time place the freebet on odds of 5's or higher, and lay off on Betfair again, (assuming you have the float available in Betfair).

Done correctly, you'll easily make £35+ off every £50 freebet.

You'll need this: http://www.matchedodds.co.uk/matched-betting-calculator/

 

cheers. do you mean odds requirement for the original bet or the free bet?

 

I,ve used the Bet 365 bonus offer quite frequently and just seems a licence to print money. Yesterday did a both teams to score yes before the game and both teams to score no just after the game started. 1 bet wins and the loser stake refunded, no catches so far.

 

Yeah the fist bet do the qualifier.
Free bets where the stake isn't returned give you more return the higher the odds, (especially if laying off).

 

So I think I've sussed this gambling malarky.

Wanted Wednesday to win so bet on Hull to be promoted, wanted Atletico to win so bet on Real to lift the trophy, wanted Millwall to win so be on Barnsley to get promoted.

Tomorrow it's all going on Plymouth.

 

Any particular reason why you wanted Millwall to win and not Barnsley?

I wasn't too bothered about the outcome as it doesn't affect us for now, but I think most neutrals would want AFC Wimbledon to win tomorrow.

 

Well that didn't work out as planned, but like you I wanted Wimbledon to win so a sliver lining and all that.

Why Millwall? I think them smashing up the gypsy camp in Bedfordshire has given me a soft spot for the dockers as time has passed.

 

Won 250 quid off Spain to score 4 or more yesterday, did it with an online Bitcoin bookie - love the 2 minute withdrawal times!

Going to put a bit on the match tonight but looking for something 10/1 +

 

Japan -1 handicap at just under 2/1 is huge odds imo, kicks off at 11.40 though so be quick!

 

6 minutes in and Japan are 1-0 up with another disallowed for offside...

 

I stuck a pound on Wawrinka to win and over 3.5 sets in the Djokovic match. Djokovic will probably win in straight sets so stuck another pound on Warinka at 21/20 to cover the loss.

I'm gonna dine out royally tonight peasants.

 

4-0 up before HT..

 

Only just seen this but thanks for the heads up anyway.

 

Good times, had a tenner of -3 at 12/1 - has been a very good week!

 

Ended 7-2, bookies had this very wrong.

 

Need more warning next time :doom:

 

Sorry, had a large bet on the win last night but didn't look at the handicap price until the lineups were announced!

 

No worries, at least my tennis bets are coming i........

Bugger :doom:

 

Plenty of notice for this one (so much so that it's not even priced yet). The Japan game earlier was part of a cup (the kirin cup). The bookies classed it as a friendly. There's 4 teams involved: Japan, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Denmark.

Denmark and Japan have close to full strength teams, Bosnia and Bulgaria are missing lots of key players (Bosnia are missing SO many). Bosnia beat denmark on penalties early this morning so go though to face Japan in the final.

Since Japan have a strong team, playing on their home turf I'll be going for Japan win, probably a large stake. The odds should be very tasty, I reckon around 11/8 or so.

The 3rd placed match between denmark and Bulgaria should be an easy win for denmark. Will easily cover -1 and should be good odds as well.

Both games played on Tuesday. Will post again when any bookie has priced it up

 

Looks like the bookies have finally done their research. Japan game now priced up.....and they're 4/9 to win :doom:

Was fully expecting much much better odds than that based on the prices of the first games. Will probably have a small stake on the -1 at 7/5 instead of a huge on the win.

 

Denmark are 4/6 in most places in the 3rd placed playoff. They should easily win and most likely cover -1 as well at 17/10. Japan win and Denmark -1 double at just under 3/1 looks fantastic value.

 

Not on Skybet

 

I imagine both games will be priced up today, most bookies showing limited markets atm. Can see the Japan odds being hammered as soon as they do.

 

Spain over 3.5 goals looks tasty tomorrow.

 

I've gone for the following (had £130 in my account and follow a staking system that i'm disregarding for these, sometimes it's worth doing.)

£25 on Denmark win @ 8/13 (banned from all bookies offering 4/6)
£10 on Denmark/Japan double @ 1.33/1
£6 on Denmark -1/Japan double @ 2.9/1
£3 on Denmark -1/Japan -1 double @ 5.48/1
£1.50 on Denmark win both halves @ 7/2
£1 on Denmark -2/Japan -1 double @ 12.2/1

Most of the value is definitely in the Denmark game imo.

 

Cheers Reids. Good luck!

 

Looks good - assuming Bulgaria will field their weakened team again?

 

Their whole squad they took with them is lacking some rather key players: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgaria_national_football_team#Recent_call-ups compare the players with 30+ caps missing to the ones in the current squad. Bodurov, Ivan Ivanov, Manolev, Tonev + Bojinov all look key players missing and replaced with much inferior replacements (playing for domestic Bulgarian teams, 30 years old with only 4/5 caps for instance). The Danish team are still missing some big players (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark_national_football_team#Current_squad) but is still plenty to see off that Bulgarian team.

 

Just as a heads up, the Denmark game kicks off at 8AM tomorrow, so get them placed tonight if you're not getting up early tomorrow!

 

Denmark 1 up at HT and dominating, should come in easily.