I figured out yesterday lunchtime and tried to let you know in a subtle message but it obviously passed you by when I wrote: Ha! Lot of speculation about this new role today... That's why I moved quickly when Squibba suggested lynching you, I didn't want any momentum to build as I figured you were almost certainly good (unless Harrow Orn has put the Harlot on Team Evil for some unknown reason).
And that both Optimistic and Powerjugs are both good as both messages confirm that today, so at least one must have come from the seer.
Ah yes! So it looks like the Wolf has made their first mistake - at least it'll be an easy pick for the Guardian tonight then, if the Guardian chooses Opti then PJ can survive another night by teaming up with Opti overnight. We could even bait both the Wolves to attack Opti overnight as they'll then figure out one another's identity but we'll lose no one good over night if protected by the Guardian - worthy risk considering we'll know who to vote for tomorrow if either Daft Row or cthulhu are good after their lynching. One of the two are evil: Daft Row cthulhu Two? (Second Wolf and Traitor?) of the remaining are evil (I'm good but I'll leave my name below as it's not proven): Cassetti's Beard Otter Hornetgags Meh NorwayHornet With A Smile Miked2006 domthehornet Steve Leo Beleck BigRossLittleRoss PhillipineOrn
This is how I see it thus far based on the following 4 assumptions... 1- PJ is the is the Harlot and is GOOD. Liklihood - very strong. 2- The 1st message on day 1 which stated that PJ was good was by the seer, because only the Alpha wolf would have known this to be true post by the seer and used that information to attack PJ twice on the 100% knowledge that PJ was good. An easy first kill for the wolf. Liklihood - quite strong 3- Day 1 message 2 and Day 2 message 1 are by the same person as they use the same language ie "sorry I could not help you further" . This of course may be a ruse but it is all we have to go on. Therefore Day 1 message 2 and Day 2 message 1 are by the wolf ( see messages below) - Liklihood - fairly strong Day 1 Message 2 Morning all! With nothing to go on, I decided to view Cassetti's Beard. He is good. Sorry I couldn't help you further. Day 2 Message 1 Morning Villagers! Cassetti's Beard is good. I decided to view Hornetgags as he began defending himself after Cassetti's Beard put him under scrutiny. He unfortunately is good too. I am really sorry I could not help you further. 4- The wolf attacking PJ is likely to be the aplha wolf as he was the only one to know for certain that Day 1 message 1 was the seer and not the wolf. Liklihood - quite strong -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So on those assumptions the wolf decided to mislead us into thinking that CB and HornetGags are good. He even unneccsarily repeats in his day 2 message that CB is good despite the fact the message was supposed to be about Hornetgags. Why would the wolf want us to believe CB is good, and indeed Hornetags too ? EDIT 5- Speculative assumption. Day2 message 2 and Day 3 message 2 are by the same person as they both comment on the wolfs tactic. If this and my previous assumptions are true this woudl imply that these messages are from the seer who is truthfully commenting on the wolfs behaviour. This would mean that The Seer is saying Cthulu is evil and The Wolf is saying Daft row is evil.
This is an interesting post as I know that the first message today is a lie. However the wolves don't know one anothers identity do they?
Correct me if I'm wrong but now that we have it confirmed that PowerJugs and Optimistic are good, doesn't that mean we know exactly who the first two days' messages are from? As both messages today confirm that PJ and Optimistic are good, and one of those must have been from the Seer, logically that confirms that Day 1 Message 1 and Day 2 Message 2 are the Seer. And if that's the case, then Day 3 Message 1 must be the Seer as it's telling the truth that he hasn't viewed CB or HornetGags. Can anyone disprove that? My head hurts but seems pretty watertight to me and looks like the Alpha wolf has made a major error, or was just unlucky that the Seer also reiterated that PJ and Opti were good. Day 1 message 1 Heed my words today you must, The words I speak are ones of trust, Evil doers I will alert when I know, Off to the gallows they will go, In my dungeon the stones have talked, The man is good whose dogs have been walked. Day 1 message 2 Morning all! With nothing to go on, I decided to view Cassetti's Beard. He is good. Sorry I couldn't help you further. Day 2 message 1 Morning Villagers! Cassetti's Beard is good. I decided to view Hornetgags as he began defending himself after Cassetti's Beard put him under scrutiny. He unfortunately is good too. I am really sorry I could not help you further. Day 2 message 2 It looks like the Wolf has opted to post first and throw Hornetgags into the equation. Unfortunately I have already had my view today and saw that Optimistichornet is GOOD Day 3 message 1 Beware there is an evil doer in our midst, I have viewed Daft Row and he is evil. The Wolf will try to discredit this but do not believe him. I havent looked at Cassetti's Beard nor Hornetgags. I was right about Powerjugs and Optimistichornet and have toned down the theatrics at your request. Day 3 message 2 The Wolf has been very evasive so far. I have viewed Powerjugs and Optimistichornet and they are good. I decided to view Cthulhu. Cthulhu is EVIL.
Bloody hell. Just arrived and it's all going off! Basically we are at least guaranteed a wolf before the weekend. Good viewing Seer, whichever kne was you.
Pretty sure from what I read on wiki that Harlot has to be good as its a role rather than a template so you cant be a wolf and a harlot or traitor and a harlot. Whether that means that Harrow has modified it I dont know.
My early speculative assumption is that The Seer has called Cthullu as evil, so yes we should look at his posts. I have a sneaking suspicion about CB, he is posting a lot of info so could possibly be the traitor trying to mislead us goodly villagers. Thats more of a hunch rather than logical thought though. Apologies if you re good CB
I guarantee Daft row is evil. I know Im good. im voting for him. job done, team good if they believe me has an evil kill today, if not kill me tonight and kill daft row tomorrow and we are one wolf down. Yay!
If your wavering between daft row and me, kill daft row today and me tomorrow. PJ stay away from both of us.
Morning all. Hope you all have voted in the general election - we need a party that will promote people coming and living in our dangerous village. Sorry about my late vote yesterday, not that it would have made a difference anyway. So today the only question is whether we kill Cthulhu or Daft Row. Cthulhu was being erratic yesterday, but DR was being quiet until called out. Whatever happens - we are guaranteed an evil!
Because I know who's good by virtue by not dying using my squatter extraordinaire skills, I have a very strong suspicion that the first message is correct calling Daft Row Evil, following its wording. Following Messaging logic neither CB or hornetsgags have been viewed ties in with message 1 today that views me and Opti as good.
I get it, I'd be suspicious as well, but there's a reason for my long post which you'll see further down the line. The Seer can view me tomorrow.
Cthulhu from my PoV is still unknown. Doesn't mean he's cleared or guilty but he's yet to be viewed by the Seer so assume neutral til viewed. From the information given by Messages today I'd vote Daft Row as I'm very confident that's the Seer's message. I know he hasn't viewed either of CB or hornetsgags whereas Message 2 doesn't want to get invovled and instead makes an accusation.
End of the day its a 50/50 between Cthulhu and I. Obviously I'd rather stay in the game and be proven correct tonight but I appreciate that we may have to take a hit. I'll be voting for Cthulhu now, hope you do the same.
Edging towards Daft Row, especially after Daft Row suddenly became very active after Squibba pointed the finger Lets not forget this post from Daft Row yestrerday as well: I work during normal office hours (and stay late every so often) which is why I can respond then and at lunch. I think that's fair? Funny how yesterday your office hours stopped you posting outside lunch and after hours, but today it hasn't stopped you? Let me guess, a convenient quiet day in the office?
Fair comment, I'm less busy and it's interesting. Don't mind you lynching me tonight as long as you go for Cthulhu tomorrow.
Let me spell out my earlier theory in simpler terms as I think that following logic it means we definitively know which messages the Seer has written and which are the Wolf: 1. Both messages today state that Opti and PJ are good. One must be from the Seer, therefore it is safe to assume that Opti and PJ are good. 2. If that's the case, then the Seer's messages are logically those that state that PJ and Opti are good, and not the ones that looked at CB or Hornetgags. 3. The first message today tells the truth that the Seer hasn't looked at CB or Hornetgags, so must be the Seer. Hang on... thinking a bit more about it, as the second message says that Opti and PJ are good, it also implies that CB and Hornetgags haven't been viewed either. So either could be the Wolf today. We do however, know that the Seer definitely wrote Message 1 Day 1 and Message 2 Day 2.
I agree that it is likely that Day 1 Message 1 and Day 2 Messgae 2 is the Seer. However could it not be that the Day 3 Message 1 is the wolf lieing by saying he hasnt looked at CB or HG?
