£10 into £2000 in 365 days

Terrible away from home, but unbeatable on their pitch in the Atlantic.

 

actually their home and away records are near identical. they have 1 win at home and 1 win away after around 17 games. 2 draws at home. the other 13 games have been lost

 

First bet of the day loses. Going to bump the stake for the Brazilian game up to 60p stake, as i'm growing in confidence the more I look at it.

 

the only problem is that brazilian games tend to be infuriatingly low scoring. or at least the ones i watch are. probably end up as a drab 1-0

 

Yeah, Corinthians games so far this season average 1.5 goals per game. Nautico games average 2.41 goals per game.

 

The amount of times I forget to place a bet and it wins, it's just my luck that Nautico will pull off an unlikely win today.

 

0-0 at HT. Sigh.

 

Corinthians bossing the corners 8-1. 4 shots to 1 though...

 

give it time. vai corinthians!

 

http://globoesporte.globo.com/temporeal/futebol/08-09-2013/corinthians-nautico/

or maybe not

 

Is this the shocking betting tips thread?

 

Amazed Corinthians didn’t win that game, 18 shots, 16 corners, hit the post, but couldn’t even score once, let alone the 2 we needed. KTP dominated their game slightly less, but conceded and ended up losing. Disappointing. There are no bets tomorrow, I’d initially planned a double with 2 U21 games (Italy + Germany), but i’m upon researching it, i’ve lost a bit of confidence in it, so it’s now a no bet for me (concerns with the Germany game, and i’m not willing to touch the Italian handicaps, and the odds for outright win are too poor). So instead the bets for Tuesdays games are below. I mentioned yesterday about betting inplay and there was a bit of interest about an inplay group, featuring not just mine, but other peoples tips, i’ve now set that up and you can join it here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/593598050686883/


Day 40:

Balance: £8.66


European U21 Championship Qualifiers Belarus U21 v France U21
09-09-2013 19:30
Win-Draw-Win
France U21 @ 2/9

European U21 Championship Qualifiers Luxembourg U21 v Holland U21
09-09-2013 17:00
Alternative Handicap
Holland U21 (-1.0) @ 4/11

European U21 Championship Qualifiers Finland U21 v England U21
09-09-2013 17:00
Win-Draw-Win
England U21 @ 3/10

Stake: 50p (as a treble, pays just under 6/5)

Holland were clinical the other, destroying Scotland 4-0, I was reluctant to get on the handicaps in that game, but that’s not the case in this game, should be a very one-sided game, and I can’t really believe i’m taking a -1 handicap at that price, but i’m very confident they’ll match it. France were equally as clinical, destroying Kazakhstan 5-0. France have a advantage over most other U21 teams, having played in a youth festival over the summer, they finished 3rd place (after Brazil the winners and Colombia) and have got a wealth of talent. England could be the bogey team here, they were 1/18 to beat Moldova the other day and could only manage a 1-0 victory. The same again would be nice though!

 

told you i had a bad feeling.

 

I was following this game online - it was so one sided that with 5 minutes to go, the away team's odds were 201-1 to win. I had a cheeky 10p on that !

 

England draw and Holland only win by 1. Bet lost.

 

Day 41:

Should have gone with my gut and taken the Italy U21 + Germany U21 double like i’d planned, shocking displays by Holland and England let us down (can thank Andre Wisdom for screwing up our England bet). Apologies, regarding the confusion about days, hopefully saved some of you some money though! A slight consolation is that we had a pretty good day in the in-play group, placing 10 bets, winning 7, getting a refund on 1 and losing 2. Anyway, bit more confident about tomorrows selections, the writeups aren’t as in depth as usual i’m afraid, had a very busy day!

World Cup Qualifiers Italy v Czech Republic
10-09-2013 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Italy @ 8/15

World Cup Qualifiers Kazakhstan v Sweden
10-09-2013 17:00
Win-Draw-Win
Sweden @ 2/7

Stake: 50p (as a double)

Czech Republic are on a rotten bout of form and look like they’re going to struggle to get to the world cup (their group is close, very close: http://uk.soccerway.com/internation...g-europe/2014-brazil/1st-round/group-b/g4650/), Italy have practically qualified, a win here will see them qualify for sure, and i’m sure they’ll want to do it in style in front of the home crowd. A win for Sweden will move them away from either Ireland or Austria (who play each other tomorrow, a draw would be perfect for Sweden). Sweden won the previous fixture 2-0, and i’d expect a similar, if not higher, score here.

World Cup Qualifiers Paraguay v Argentina
11-09-2013 02:45
Win-Draw-Win
Argentina @ 4/5

Stake: 60p

Really can’t believe these odds, absolutely crazy. The team Argentina are taking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina_national_football_team#Current_squad), the recent form of both (Argentina have lost just 2 in their last 20 games, and both games were against Brazil). Just spells nothing but an Argentina win for me.

World Cup Qualifiers Malta v Bulgaria
10-09-2013 19:00
Handicap Betting
Bulgaria (-1.0) @ 11/10

Stake: 40p

A win for Bulgaria will move them away from the chasing pack of Czech Republic, Armenia and Denmark, who are all 1 point behind Bulgaria. Malta are the whipping boys of the group, and the previous qualifier ended up in a 6-0 Bulgarian win. Whilst I don’t think they’ll match that score again here, the handicap is certainly good value.

 

I did a 5 game accumulator that won tonight. Modest 75p that brough back over £2 so at least the set bets losing weren't such a blow to my already poor balance.

 

damn missed the opportunity to place these bets.

 

For anyone interested, Italy and Sweden both won (vs Czech Rep and Kazakhstan) so the first bet wins, the second bet is yet to be played, and Bulgaria only won by one goal so the third bet loses.

 

Started with £25 quid on Sunday, now up to £89!

 

Another safe accumulator (6 teams) won. Only staked 60p but won £1.72. Decent. And 2 of the 3 bets above won too so I'm getting back towards our starting balance (missed winning days on a few occasions, managed to join in on some of the heaviest losses).

 

No bets today FYI.

 

As i've been away, I haven't placed bets for near 2 weeks. I am currently £3 up on the starting balance. Will aim to get back involved with the next set of bets.

 

Yeah, I've missed the last week of bets due to going to bestival on the isle of wight. I'm on a similar balance though, so looking to jump straight back in.

 

Day 42:

Will do full write-ups tomorrow but the bets are:

Balance: £8.76

Finnish Veikkausliiga JJK Jyvaskyla v Vaasa PS
12-09-2013 16:30
Win-Draw-Win
Vaasa PS @ 13/8

Stake: 50p


Iceland Urvalsdeild Vikingur Olafsvik v KR Reykjavik
12-09-2013 18:30
Handicap Betting
KR Reykjavik (-1.0) @ 7/5

Stake: 50p

 

The VPS game ended 3-1, apologies I didn't get to do the write-ups before kickoff, but i'll give my reasoning anyway as it might be useful for some of you:

VPS - Not the biggest scorers of goals (in fact, their goal difference is 0), but i'd certainly back them to beat JJK (wouldn't really bet on them to beat anyone else, despite being 4th in the league), but it's the fact they were playing JJK that made this a bet for me, they're terrible. Their goal difference is terrible, on average scoring 1 goal per 2 conceded (which is very high in this league). Odds of 13/8 represented great value for the stats, despite the fact that the home team doesn't often lose in this league.

KR -1 - Pretty obvious bet if you look at the league tables. KR are the top scorers in the league, and sitting at the top of the table. Vikingur are in a relegation battle. What provides the value here is that despite being 1 place from bottom, Vikingur don't concede bucket-loads of goals, but instead have trouble scoring them. So by that reasoning you'd expect KR to keep a clean sheet. From that point onwards, you're just relying on KR to keep their goalscoring form (they average 2.5 goals scored per game), meeting the -1 handicap in all of their last 5 games.

 

did they win 3-1 or lose?

 

won. nevermind.

 

think we lost the second bet.

 

Day 43:

A great win for VPS and a close call for KR (knew it was a bit of a risk, but if you read the writeup, i explain why I thought it was worth it) sums up a decent enough day. There were a couple of bets for tomorrow I would have liked to have done, but sadly they haven’t been priced up yet (Bayern Munich II -2 handicap). But I guess keeping the numbers of bets down will help us get back into profit.

Balance: 9.08

Bulgarian A League Pirin Gotse v CSKA Sofia
13-09-2013 14:15
Half-Time/Full-Time
CSKA Sofia / CSKA Sofia @ 4/5

Stake: 60p

Pirin Gotse are terrible, losing 6 of their 7 games played so far (1 draw as well), in those 7 games, they have also conceded 23 goals, which works out at just over 3 goals per game. CSKA Sofia are rightly 3/10 odds on favourites for this match, but looking at the stats for Pirin Gotse, I can see that out of the 23 goals they’ve conceded, almost 62% of those have been in the first half. So odds of 4/5 certainly look like good value to me. Initially I was going to take the handicap, but looking a bit further I can see the CSKA aren’t the most prolific of scorers (scored 6 in their first 7 games, although they haven’t been the easiest of games!), so a handicap would be a bit risky. This bet removes the need of scoring 2, 1-0 is enough win us the bet (provided CSKA score the goal in the first half!).

Austrian League Matches TSV Hartberg v SKNV St Polten
13-09-2013 17:30
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7

Finnish Veikkausliiga FC Honka v Rovaniemi PS
13-09-2013 16:30
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/6

Portuguese Div 2 Matches Porto B v Moreirense
13-09-2013 18:00
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13

Stake: 30p (as a treble)

This is just a small stats based treble i’m taking, it’s a bit risky so feel free to not follow if you have doubts about it, i’m going by pure stats for this one, I don’t know a whole lot about the Austrian league, but the teams average 3.75 goals and 2.75 goals per game each. The Honka game is probably the riskiest in my eyes, I reckon Honka will win that 2-0, so it will depend on is RPS can grab a goal or not. The Portugese game is against 2 of the best teams in the division, they score for fun but don’t concede many. Hopefully this will mean they’ll cancel each other out!

 

your facebook in-game betting thingy won't work. was it a temporary thing or is there a different link you could supply, perhaps? please?

 

Betfred didn't have -1 for Reykjavik so both bets won for me

 

Ah, it's set to secret now so the link won't work. Add https://www.facebook.com/tipster.stu as a friend and i'll add you in!

 

done