£10 into £2000 in 365 days

Well that's the Lyon bet down. Can't remember seeing a "big" team play as badly as they are playing. They've had a bunch of corners but no-one even challenges for the header and it's always headed away with ease, very sloppy defending for both goals. Umtiti needs to come off the bench ASAP to sure up the back before this turns into a rout.

 

Reids, is there a bottom line to this where you call it a day or will we keep going to the bitter end? Another couple of poor days and will the stakes have to drop in proportion with the remaining pot?

I'm not trolling you here btw, I've followed all your bets so far and will carry on. Just intrigued.

 

Don't give up unless the tenner goes completely.

 

Bitter end I think, although thinking of taking a break for a couple of days, usually helps if i'm on a losing streak, the luck we're having is unbelievable. Only 1 game finished with over 3.5 goals in the championship today, and that was the game we were on ffs

 

Maybe we should ***** the rest on instant blackjack!

Shame we weren't on the prem games under 3.5 goals today. Old Line-acher is going to have problems making that lot sound interesting in the MotD trailer tonight....

 

Day 32:

Todays bets pretty much summed up our last week and a half, only one game in the Championship ended in over 3.5 goals.....and that was one that we’d included in our treble. Perfect. If we don’t end up in profit from tomorrows bets, i’ll take a few days off and “paper” bet until I feel my form is back to where it usually is (from my past spreadsheets, I can see I have a usual strike rate of 65%, since the start of the challenge i’m on 41%), I find a few days off usually clears the head. So onto tomorrows selections, and i’m afraid the writeups are quite short as i’ve got to dash now!



Finnish Veikkausliiga FF Jaro v HJK Helsinki
01-09-2013 16:30
Win-Draw-Win
HJK Helsinki @ 8/11

Stake: 75p


HJK have a great win-rate away from home, which is odd in this division as the home teams usually end up with a point at the least. They always have a very impressive goal difference, far far better than the arguably best team in the league Honka. HJK will go top with a win here as well, so they’ll be fully gunning for it. The odds are a little less than I would have wanted, but i’m still willing to take them.


Portuguese Div 2 Matches Moreirense v Oliveirense
01-09-2013 16:00
Handicap Betting
Moreirense (-1.0) @ 7/5

Stake: 60p

Moreirense are newly relegated from the Portugese Premier league and look like they’re on another level to the rest of the teams in this league, so far going unbeaten in their first 4 games back, including a massive 7-0 victory a few weeks ago. Oliveirense finished mid-table last season, but now look like they’re going to struggle, picking up just 1 point in their first 3 games. Would have just liked to have taken the win, but too poor odds, but believe the handicap represents good value.

 

Barcelona, Fiorentina & Udinese winning payed out 5.75/1 tonight surely little trebles/doubles like this is the way to go rather than goal markets?

 

Possibly, but a lot more can go wrong!

Anyway, taking a break until the U21 games on Wednesday.

 

Day 36:

Hopefully the break will have done me some good, looking back on the bets, there’s not a lot of the losers I wouldn’t take again if transported back into the past, they have all represented good value in leagues that i’m very familiar with, but for one reason or another (shipping stupid early goals or red cards) we’ve been pretty unlucky. Hopefully this will now change!


Balance: £7.16

European U21 Championship Qualifiers Austria U21 v Spain U21
05-09-2013 19:30
Win-Draw-Win
Spain U21 @ 4/9

European U21 Championship Qualifiers Holland U21 v Scotland U21
05-09-2013 17:30
Win-Draw-Win
Holland U21 @ 4/11

Stake: 60p (as a double)

Very almost made this a 75p stake bet, but lowered the stakes as it’s a bit riskier (aka requires 2 victories rather than just one). A majority of U21 teams are in a transition period after the U21 Euro finals (which a lot of teams players were 22/23, I know, this doesn’t make sense, but if you play any part in qualification, then you can play in the finals), so a lot of the big names (Thiago, Isco, Strootman) will play no part. However, due to the way that every team in Europe apart from England structure their youth teams, the newcomers should have no problem fitting in and starting these games.
Spain may have lost their 2 stars in Thiago and Isco, but there’s so much quality in their squad still. Sergio Roberto has started 2 games for Barcelonas senior team already so far this season, alongside other such talents as Muniaín who aged 20 has already made 177 appearances for Athletico Bilbao. The Real Madrid youngster Morata will be one to watch in this game, he was understudy for Rodrigo for most of the recent U21 tournament, scoring practically every time he came on as a substitute. However Rodridgo is now 22 and subsequently not in the team, so i’d expect Morata to start. Austria certainly don’t have a bad team (which is why i’m not looking at handicaps for this game), most of them play in the Austrian league, with some at Bundesliga clubs (mostly on loan to the lower table Bundesliga clubs). Looking at the number of caps that the Austrian team have, it seems a lot of them lack experience at U21 level, and I imagine the Spanish side will overwhelm them. A poor price, but I really don’t fancy the handicap, so the double with Holland which is a similar sort of game, looks a lot more appealing.
Holland were one of the teams I very much under-estimated at the start of the Euros, but ended up making a fair bit of money off them towards the end. Players like Wijnaldum, Vrij, Maher + Strootman all performed admirably, sadly most of them are now too old to play for the U21 side, however Maher remains, and will be a key to this Dutch side for a few more years, and a mainstay of the Dutch main team for many years to come. Aged just 20 he’s already got 68 Eredivisie appearances to his name, as well as 16 Europa League games, averaging 5 games per goal, which is a great return for a midfielder so young. I haven’t found a definitive list of the Dutch squad, but it will most certainly include Maher and the new Chelsea signing Van Ginkel, who will dominate the midfield against a poor Scotland squad (who recently lost 6-0 to England U21s!). The double pays just under evens (0.97/1) and looks good to me!

 

Looking sewn up so far with Holland having won already and Spain winning 4-1 at HT in their game.

 

Day 37:

Well I was proven wrong about the handicaps yesterday, both Holland and Spain absolutely destroyed it. Sadly couldn’t find a stream for the Holland game, but Spain were amazing, Morata as I said in my writeup is a great finisher, and netted a first half hat-trick (and should have had another but chose to pass instead)

Balance: £7.74

World Cup Qualifiers Scotland v Belgium
06-09-2013 20:00
Win-Draw-Win
Belgium @ 3/4

Stake: 75p

Belgium have an incredible squad, that is pretty much made up of the elite of the premier league. Kompany, Vertonghen, Fellaini, Hazard, Dembele, Benteke, Lukaku and De Bruyne all play for Belgium, along with some other top class players (Alderweireld and Mertens). Belgium go into this game on top of their group, undefeated for 6 games in all competitions, including good wins over USA and some teams that are known for their resilient defences (Serbia + Slovakia), their last game was a 0-0 draw against France (a good result i’d say). Belgium also won 2-0 in the previous qualifier between the 2 in November last year. Scotland have been in poor form recently, winning just 1 of their 7 world cup qualifiers, the crowd in Hampden Park will certainly be behind the Scotland team but I expect Belgiums class to come through.

World Cup Qualifiers Chile v Venezuela
07-09-2013 01:30
Handicap Betting
Chile (-1.0) @ 11/10

Stake: 60p

Chile won us one of our first bets of the challenge when they destroyed Iraq last month, i’m confident it’ll be a similar (maybe not 6-0 though..) story here. The key players Sanchez, Isla, Vidal and Beausejour have all been named in the team and i’d expect them to start. Chile are currently in 4th place in the South American qualifying group (1-4 go to the world cup) and will be looking to stay there (a little bit of heat from Uruguay + Venezuela in 5th + 6th), so will be going for the win in style. Venezuela may also have to resort to playing a drastically weakened team after 20 members of their team caught food poisoning (http://metro.co.uk/2013/09/04/venez...as-stomach-bug-leaves-squad-laid-low-3950559/) so this represents a great bet for me.

World Cup Qualifiers Poland v Montenegro
06-09-2013 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Poland @ evens

Stake: 50p

Montenegro have been one of the surprises of the World Cup Qualification so far, I thought Poland would be the biggest threat to England qualifying, but it turns out Montenegro have been the ones to watch. Poland have a great squad, The Dortmund trio of Lewandowski, Błaszczykowski and Piszczek work so well together (although Piszczek is injured), the midfield that Poland are taking is strong, with a good mix of established players and youth. The previous game between the 2 teams finished 2-2, and i’m sure that the home advantage will give Poland the edge here. Another interesting thing that might influence the game is the absence of one of Montenegros best players, he’s the top scorer for them so far in this competition and looks to be absent from the team (Deliba*i*). However the Polish defence will still have to deal with Jovetic and Vucinic!

World Cup Qualifiers Peru v Uruguay
07-09-2013 03:30
Win-Draw-Win
Uruguay @ 7/4

Stake: 40p

This is an amazing price, I was fully expecting this to be around evens, was stunned when I saw the price! Peru aren’t a bad team, they have a few stand out names (Farfan + Pizzaro) but for the most part their squad consists of players playing in the Peruvian league, by contrast just 3 of the 26 Uruguayan players called up for the game play their football in Uruguay, the Uruguayan players are great, their defence is a little dodgy, their midfield is good, but the strikeforce is stunning. Cavani, Suarez and Forlan make up an amazing trio that score goals for fun (as shown in the recent 4-2 win over Japan, in which they were a similar price if I remember correctly). A mental price that’s certainly worth a small stake.

 

Cheers reids. I'll be honest and say I don't fancy Belgium so have doubled the stake on Uruguay instead.

 

cheers reids done them all apart from poland-montenegro. really don't fancy that one. did a couple of small doubles over the last couple of days so with todays bets laid my balance is now £9.10

 

See, I'd say Belgium will destroy Scotland. I really can't see the scots doing anything other than losing and probably by more than one goal. They're not a strong team at all - even with Angus McAnya. Haven't they had three or four players pull out too?

The one that strikes me with fear is Chile v Venezuela. How many times have you heard that one about half the teams crippled and yet they play anyway through some miracle and end up snatching it - what a fairytale. I'm sure I've heard that one at least half a dozen times. Venezuela are no mugs and they have a relatively high standard of football in their national league. A few years back they were a pushover, but they've improved dramatically in recent times. I could see a 1-1 here or maybe even a shock fairytale 1-2. I'm going to lump the stake from this game onto Belgium instead. Like I said, I reckon that's a banker.

 

This has convinced me to lump on Chile. Cheers Clive.

 

Money in the bank WT!

 

Thanks for the tips Reids. Put all 4 into an accumulator at PaddyPower for odds of just over 18-1. Unlike others I have the utmost faith so lumped a fiver on it.

 

Can't believe so many are starting to doubt the oracle already. The whole point was to follow the betting pattern to see if it could be acheived wasn't it?

 

If I truly doubted him I'd have withdrawn my £6ish and quit. I just took the view that where reids puts up 4 bets there's some scope to manouvre. I've still used his tips and not exceeded his overall stake so I wouldn't say that's a big deviation.

 

Aye, i've said it before, I don't expect everyone to blindly follow my every bet. Some doubts will certainly be thrown up over particular bets, I don't mind that!

 

No, I know. Just thought the idea of this particular gamble was to follow Reids bets and see where it went. Good luck with the bets!

 

really didnt fancy poland vs montenegro, glad i left that one out.

 

Day 38:

Haven't got time for a full write-up at the moment (will do it tomorrow morning!) but the bet is:

International Friendlies Brazil v Australia
07-09-2013 20:15
To Win to Nil
Brazil @ 5/6

Stake: 60p

 

:sign15:

 

Day 38:

A strong day yesterday saw our balance fly up, only kicker was a 90th minute Poland goal being disallowed due to offside, but a good day nonetheless. Were a shed-load of games that I wanted bets on but didn’t want too many bets (4 was already probably too many!). Onto today!

Balance: £9.16

International Friendlies Brazil v Australia
07-09-2013 20:15
To Win to Nil
Brazil @ 5/6

Stake: 60p


This bet is a pretty obvious one, I initially wanted handicaps, but there’s not much value there, but this also represents good value I believe. This games being played in Brazil, and Brazil have an incredible home record, they are unbeaten for over 50 years, which is stunning. Looking at the squads both teams have taken, i’m very confident on a Brazil win, Australia have a very old squad, and to be honest, they aren’t that good. The Brazil squad is strong, and looking at the players they’ve taken, I think they’ll lineup with Maicon at right back, Thiago Silva + Dante in the middle with Marcelo on the left. I believe that will be far too strong for the Australian team (who are without Cahill as well). This is the squad that Australia are taking: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia_national_association_football_team#Current_squad i’ll admit that I haven’t really heard of any of the players (which is a surprise!) but the teams they play for aren’t of the greatest quality.

 

cheers reids. on a good run now. in your couple of days off i layed a couple of low value bets, but now my balance is 13.20 after laying this bet. i was using your line of thinking and looking for value and it definitely paid off.

 

Day 39:

Brilliant performance by Brazil wins us our only bet of the day. Australia never really threatened. Brazil were unstoppable, immense pass and move that just over-whelmed the Oz defence, sorta wish that we’d got on the handicaps as there were some tasty prices out there, but after the performance against Switzerland the other week I thought our bet was the safest one. Slowly getting our way back towards profit again, should hopefully get there soon. I can’t wait until we’ve built up the bank a bit so we can start widening out in the sort of bets we place (bit complex to explain, but you’ll soon understand when we get there). I’ll also be setting up a group tomorrow for in-play bets (by far my main strength) since some of you have expressed an interest in that, but more details on that in the writeup tomorrow.

Balance: £9.66

Finland Ykkonen PK 35 v KooTeePee
08-09-2013 16:30
Win-Draw-Win
KooTeePee @ 7/5
Stake: 40p

KooTeePee are one of the surprises of the season in this division, they finished in a relatively poor position last season, but as the season is drawing to a close (5 games left) they’re firmly rooted in 3rd and a win here will see them move closer to SJK and Haka near the top (I don’t think they’ll over-take them though). KTP have a great away record as well, only losing 1 in their 5 last away league games (and that was to Haka after they had to play the last 30 mins with 10 men). PK35 have only won 4 of their 11 home games so far this season, and all bar the first game of the season (funnily enough against KTP, but I highly doubt we’ll be seeing a repeat of that score!) the victories have all been against the worst teams in the division. Very generous odds considering the stats, i’ll say a 2-1 win to KTP.

Brazilian Serie A Matches Corinthians v Nautico PE
08-09-2013 20:00
Alternative Handicap
Corinthians (-1.0) @ 5/6

Stake: 50p

It’s not often i’d back a handicap in the Brazilian league but I feel this has to be taken. Nautico finished 12th last season, but have since sold their best striker (scored 13 goals in 20 games last season) and they’ve failed to find someone who can match that sort of form, in their 17 games played this season, they’ve only scored 9 goals, scoring just 1 goal in their last 10. Corinthians have got a stunning defensive record in a league notorious for goals, conceding just 8 times in 18 games (the next best in the league is 14 goals!). Based on these stats alone you’d fancy Corinthians to run riot, but i’ve got a few more if you’re not quite convinced yet. Of the 13 games that Nautico have lost this season, 9 have covered the handicap required here. One slight concern is that Corinthians top scorer this season (Pato) was on international duty with Brazil last night, so I highly doubt he’ll be available for the game, but i’m still confident that Corinthians can cover the handicap needed here.

 

Typical the one day I miss and it's a winning bet.

 

Without wanting to jinx it, this week actually looks quite good, I thought it would be pretty bad due to the international games, but there's some great U21 games, some decent world cup qualifiers and some decent domestic games as well!

 

nautico will quite comfortably lose this apparently

 

i dont know why but ive instinctively got a bad feeling about this one. it happened as soon as i had clicked on the confirm bet button.

 

They are indescribably awful.

 

As I said, Corinthians are without Pato, but I doubt they'll struggle for goals without him.

Nautico are the Palace of the Brazilian Prem.

 

Have lumped on it based on the above confidence to try and pay my petrol money for Barnsleh.

 

my brazilian girlfriend is incredulous that i have´nt put all my Money on a Corinthians win. they are that bad