£10 into £2000 in 365 days

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by reids, Jul 25, 2013.

  1. reids

    reids First Team

    CSKA win 1-0. Annoyingly the goal was scored 4 minutes after half time. Seriously?!
     
  2. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    A weird stroke of luck for me - I didn't realise the kick off was as early as it was. As a result, I didn't place the bet. Have put the same stake on a PSG win tonight against Bordeaux, so may not be a bad day for me depending on that.
     
  3. 352

    352 Moderator

    Both bets lost today. Shame.
     
  4. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    PSG won :)
     
  5. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 44:

    Desperately unlucky with the main bet yesterday, with CSKA winning 1-0 as semi-predicted. Sadly though the goal came in the 49th minute, just 4 minutes after when we needed it! The treble was also unlucky, with the Austrian game letting it down (if you’d told me one game would’ve let it down, that would’ve been the last i’d have picked to lose!). Ah well, onto tomorrow!

    Russia Premier League CSKA Moscow v FK Rostov
    14-09-2013 10:30
    Team Goals in Match
    FK Rostov to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 5/6

    Stake: 60p

    Copying one of the very first bets we placed, this market offers huge value (may be called over 0.5 team goals for Rostov depending on bookie). Rostov are one of the leagues top scorers so far, averaging just under 2 goals per game. CKSA haven’t been the tightest team at the back, conceding in over half of their games played so far (against a lot worse teams than Rostov as well!). The leagues top scorer Dzyuba will be key here for Rostov who have really impressed me going forward in their couple of games i’ve watched so far this season. Great value considering it doesn’t matter how many CSKA score!

    French Div 1 Matches Toulouse v Marseille
    14-09-2013 16:00
    Win-Draw-Win
    Marseille @ 6/4

    Stake: 50p

    Quite simply baffling odds looking at the lineups and forms of each teams. Marseille have half a French national team in their lineup (Payet, Mandanda, Gignac, Valbuena) and have won 3 out their first 4 games (a 2-1 loss to big spending Monaco was the other). Toulouse on the other hand have only managed to draw 2 and lose 2 in their opening 4 (one of the draws was against Bordeaux who were down to 10 men after 28 mins, and Toulouse still couldn’t win, the 2-1 loss to Bastia in their last game was despicable considering Bastia had to play an hour with 10 men as well!). Should be a very one-sided, affair, I reckon 2-0 to Marseille.

    Austrian Bundesliga SC Magna W Neustadt v Sturm Graz
    14-09-2013 18:00
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11

    Stake: 30p
     
  6. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    All 3 bets lose today.
     
  7. reids

    reids First Team

    The over 2.5 goals won, but still a pretty shocking day. My apologies!
     
  8. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    Any bets today? Could have had a Pozzo double ;)
     
  9. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    £2000 is looking pretty far away...
     
  10. reids

    reids First Team

    Day 45

    Shocking day yesterday, with only the smallest stake bet coming in. Rostov were disappointing, and couldn’t grab a goal. Marseille were absolutely shocking, and looked a far cry away from the team that finished 2nd last season. My apologies, also apologies for the lateness of the bets for both yesterday and today, it’s been a hectic week! There were a few bets I liked the look of today, but after the shocker that was yesterday, didn’t fancy choosing which to take and which to leave, along with deciding the best stakes for both, so i’ve decided to put them all into a Yankee bet, this means not all of the selections need to win to get profit (although 3 out of 4 do need to win ideally!)

    Swedish Allsvenskanliga
    BK Hacken v Helsingborg
    15th of Sept 2013 4:30 pm
    Win-Draw-Win
    Helsingborg @ 6/4

    Serie A Matches
    Lazio v Chievo
    15th of Sept 2013 2:00 pm
    Win-Draw-Win
    Lazio @ 8/11

    Belarus Premier League
    BATE Borisov v Neman Grodno
    15th of Sept 2013 3:00 pm
    Handicap Betting
    BATE Borisov (-1.0) @ 11/10

    Serie A Matches
    Udinese v Bologna
    15th of Sept 2013 2:00 pm
    Win-Draw-Win
    Udinese @ 5/6

    Stake: 0.10 (for a total stake of £1.10)
     
  11. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Ah. Operator error, I backed the under rather than over :doh:
     
  12. reids

    reids First Team

    The one bet to choose the opposite to me on!
     
  13. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I'm out of this now. I've missed a handful of bets, most of which lost and then I've not always followed the betting amounts, but I'm down to 57p. My position at the start of this was that the bookie eventually, always wins. I've learned nothing since which convinces me otherwise.
     
  14. 352

    352 Moderator

    I've won every bet I've places that was in addition to the reids bets. Funny that, as I've probably only won about half a dozen bets in my life before this little experiment.
     
  15. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I've never won bets and this experiment has shown me that the other people who "seem" to be winning all their bets, probably aren't really either.
     
  16. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Good luck to everyone else by the way.
     
  17. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Moog, never have you posted such a truer word.

    Same for people who say they are shagging their way through life. They're not.
     
  18. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I agree Moog, the only people that really can win are the people who get mega lucky and win on a 500/1 accumulator or something, where that one off win is enough to give you long term profit
     
  19. gazzah100

    gazzah100 Reservist

  20. reids

    reids First Team

    You're down to 57p because as you've said, you didn't follow the right amounts, with discipline you can profit, i've made £3600 profit (only 1 accumulator win which only added £186 to the profit) starting with £20 in around 14 or so months. Most of those were in-play bets though, pre-game bets are so much harder to judge and are much more likely to go wrong as you're relying on what's happened in previous games rather than what's happening currently (aka you wouldn't normally bet on a team that's 10th to beat a team that's 1st before the game, but if there's 45 minutes left, the team that's 1st are down to 10 men and the team that's 10th are all over them, then chances are that could be worth a bet). I thought it would be possible to profit from pre-game bets with the knowledge and experience I have of doing things, but it hasn't quite gone to plan. The inplay groups going a lot better (7.5% return so far), but it's impossible to do a challenge like this with inplay bets (cos you need to place the bets within a few minutes), as too many people will miss them, and i'll be basing the stakes on what my balance is, rather than other peoples.
     
  21. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I simply don't believe you.
     
  22. reids

    reids First Team

    I'm sure I have some screenshots somewhere of when I was gambling the most, lemme go looking.
     
  23. reids

    reids First Team

  24. reids

    reids First Team

    A quick addition of my Skrill account shows actually i've made £3324, a bit less than £3600, but still.

    Edit: i'm a ***, not including the £150ish i've got in accounts currently either.
     
  25. Clive_ofthe_Kremlin

    Clive_ofthe_Kremlin Squad Player

    What do you look for in your 'in play' bets then Reids? Do you do straightfoward win/draw/lose bets or do you go on over under x goals etc?

    In your example, there must surely be a fair chance of say Chelsea who are 0-1 down and down to 10 men at half time, to say West Ham, still coming back to draw despite the disadvantage. If it were Chelsea 1-0 up and west ham down to 10 men, then you'd think a fairly solid bet on Chelski, but the odds by then will be about 1/10 on. Would you consider that value, or would you be looking elsewhere?

    I lose just as much on in play as beforehand. Most notably £40 on Watford to beat Bpool at half time after we stormed the 1st half recently!

    Do you tend to watch the match and decide how things are looking for your in plays?
     
  26. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I will have to stick to working for my money. Gambling doesn't agree with me. What's more, I might have been jinxing your bets by being involved. Hopefully if I bow out now, there's still time for the rest of you to recover.
     
  27. reids

    reids First Team

    I watch the matches as often as possible, yes, and normally I choose a game to watch from the outset that looks good for a pre-game bet, then decide in-play whether to get on or not (I watch a LOT of football, about 10 games a week). The best way to make money inplay is via asian handicaps (bit hard to grasp initially, but once you understand them, it's easy), I look for teams that are quite dominant on stats, then weigh up their respective form/positions and base it on there if it's a good bet or not. English football and the like is terrible to bet on, so the main stuff I bet on is random foreign crap (like Icelandic/Israeli womens football or Czech/Turkish youth teams for instance). The best value is found around the 20th and the 60th minutes, if a games 0-0 after 20 minutes, but one team is all over them on stats, then backing the HT result gets good odds and will win you money more often than not (again, check form + league positions).

    Moving this into an example (we'll use the last WH + Chelsea example you've posted above, when WH are down to 10 men), Chelsea are already 1-0 up, so that's removed all value from the Chelsea outright win. If you were to bet on Chelsea to score the next goal, then the odds would also be pretty terrible (about 4/11). The value would lie in the asian handicap, a -1 asian handicap means that if Chelsea win 2-0, you'll get a refund on your stake, and if they win 3-0, then you win money, this would most likely be around evens. Covering your arse as much as possible is key, whilst chasing the best odds (but remaining realistic).

    I'll be getting a new bet365 account off a friend soon hopefully, so i'll post updates + screenshots etc on how to make a profit, as doing these pre-game bets certainly isn't working at the moment.
     
  28. 352

    352 Moderator

    I've just done this as well if you don't mind.
     
  29. reids

    reids First Team

    A good example is inplay at the moment on Bet365 (may have to look under More Soccer to find it)

    FK Ekranas vs FK Dainava. Ekranas are 1-0 up at present. Looking here: http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/201...ranas/alytis-alytus/1453138/?ICID=HP_MS_22_01 you can see Dainava normally concede a lot of goals against similarly ranked teams (lost 4-0 to the team below Ekranas and lost 4-1 to the team above Ekranas). 41 minutes have been played so far, Ekranas hugely dominant on the stats. Ekranas are 1/6 to score the next goal, and 1/66 to win the game, so no value in those. By half time, hopefully the -1, -1.5 handicap will be closer to evens (currently just over 1/2). This bet will split the stake into 2 parts, one is the -1 asian handicap, and the other is the -1.5 asian handicap. If Ekranas win the game 2-0, half of your stake will be returned. If they win 3-0, then both bets will win and you'll be paid out for the odds you took.

    Although Ekranas are notoriously dodgy when it comes to scoring late goals, i'll be placing a bet on them to score next at around the 77th minute. Should hopefully get about 6/5 for that!
     
  30. reids

    reids First Team

    Half-time now and -1, -1.5 is 1.725 (8/11). Good enough for me to take (I don't take anything under 4/6), if you wanted to play it a bit riskier, then -1.5 (so to win by a 2 goal lead from this point on) is just over evens. But when you're staking £100-£200 per bet, the -1, -1.5 is a lifesaver if it doesn't go totally to plan!
     
  31. 352

    352 Moderator

    Helsingborg fighting for a draw right now, they're down 3-2 with 10mins to go.
     
  32. reids

    reids First Team

    They went from 2-1 up to 3-2 down in the space of 5 minutes :doh: Looks another stinker again today, may just give up on this and focus on the inplays, pre-games are too hard!
     
  33. 352

    352 Moderator

    Hit the bar in the last minute. I put a small amount on the draw in play so was really hoping something would go in. Never mind, onto the next one.
     
  34. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Whats the balance at now Reids?
     
  35. reids

    reids First Team

    Not sure, haven't updated the spreadsheet for a couple of days. Should be around the £7.50 mark I think...
     

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