Werewolf XVI: Day 2

no logic Iam afraid, just a gut feeling again although it was correct yesterday!

 

We know two things for sure
On day 1 the wolf said that darave was innocent
On day 2 the wolf said that VOR was innocent.

One of these is likely to be our wolf, unless the wolf is naming random people to be innocent to arise suspicion.

The wolf today didn’t truly think through the implications of their message.

 

Unless he can persuade me otherwise, TVOR will get my vote. I will wait until around 6pm though.

 

Interesting: I took a look at who posted most in the thread yesterday as a known tactic for evil is to lie low at the start. Notice anything about who the wolves took out last night?

 

Wow, well whilst nobody has been named as evil in either message today, there are a couple of points we can gleam from these.

I would be inclined to say that the second message yesterday and the first message today link up, with message 1 yesterday and message 2 today being from the wolf/wolves depending whether Cude was the alpha. If we're working off of what would seem to be a fact going on yesterday's outcome, then it would seem miked is indeed good.

The second message today seems highly reactive to the first.

 

Surely not a coincidence?

Interesting, I wonder if there's anything in what both Simms and Otter wrote yesterday - i'll have a look and see what I can dig out.

 

If TVOR is the alpha wolf, then I do believe that he is under enough suspicion and pressure to name himself good as a desperate attempt to save himself.

Since the first message didn't really put anyone in the frame, TVOR may have felt desperate enough to roll the dice and try and clear himself, failing in the process to realise that HH24 would point out the fact that his message was likely from the wolf.

Is my logic sound?

 

Ah, I might have gotten the order mixed up! Thinking Cude = evil message was the Seer and Darave = good message from Wolf. And today Seer first and Wolf second.

 

I'd say no. If you were Alpha in the same position would you name yourself? I know I wouldn't. I think we have an inexperienced Alpha throwing yellow smoke bombs while they learn the game.

 

Already have. Otter was on TVOR's case all day. Even asked the seer to view TVOR and now look, he's dead.

Now the Wolf has claimed to have viewed TVOR as per request. Could be very smart, or could be TVOR just trying to clear his name desperately.

 

I was going to write pretty much the same thing. It doesn't make sense for TVOR to name himself, when he could easily deflect attention elsewhere with his message.

 

The alpha wolf and TVOR may have been the two wolves who met last night. TVOR would definitely be one of the main suspects today so he or the other may have felt they had nothing to lose but it isn't exactly a sophisticated tactic. Despite his protestations, TVOR is an experienced player of this game.

 

I think it is. Even if it isn't getting rid of TVOR may help us.

He's one of the more erratic players in the game, and ironically we need a voice of reason instead of him.

 

Afternoon all. Want to clarify that I don't get the chance to post much at work - new job in a small company and I share an office with my line manager and one of the company directors! Reading posts I can just about get away with, writing not so much!

So far I think Heppy and Moog have made the points that I am most convinced by and agree with. Tonight has to surely be between TVOR and Darave as the people mentioned. Like others I think the first message is from the seer so mike is safe. Which would conclude that TVOR is potentially trying to cover his own back after such scrutiny yesterday.

Makes sense to me anyway, let me know of any glaring inaccuracies or plot holes.

 

The message naming Cude evil yesterday is from the seer, without a doubt (in my mind).

 

There's nothing concrete, as human error or inexperience seer make just about anything possible, but I think it's a solid line of enquiry.

 

That's how it seems to me based on what we've had so far. The only thing that casts this in doubt is weather the wolf unknowingly named Cude yesterday.

 

Both messages today seemed to take credit for naming Cude as evil yesterday.

 

:doh:

 

Which means that the Seer definitely did view and name Cude yesterday. The seer wouldn't lie - as HH pointed out.

Which means the wolf named you.

Which implies that the second message today, is probably from the wolf, naming TVOR.

Make of that what you will.

 

I do agree

But unless TVoR is a wolf then why would the 2nd msg have named him as good ? Surely the wolf would have named someone as bad, even if he had viewed good just to get someone lynched - no
I don't understand why he has named darave8 as someone to focus on

For me its a clear 2 options

1 - the wolf was the 2nd message and has tried to give the impression that he is TVoR trying to protect himself
2 - the wolf again is the 2nd message and it is TVoR is the wolf playing silly buggers

 

I agree with all the above.

 

if darave8 is teh wolf and tried to protect himself yesterday, whys he used teh same tac tic on TVoR today ?

 

No - message 2 made no such claim. Just said "a good start but we need to get lucky again".

 

Well, considering he's saying it's a good start and we need to get lucky again it's pretty obvious he's pretending to be "good", and thus taking credit for viewing Cude yesterday...

 

Been away for a while, so have only caught to your earlier post shown above so far, but that is a very good point Moog, I've had two ganging up on me this morning, but I 'll catch up a bit more, before I name them.

 

So many ironic names today.

WatfordTalk doesn't talk.
The Voice of Reason, doesn't speak with any reason.

 

Well bugger. Enjoy the rest of the game lads.