Werewolf XVI: Day 2

By whom? I'm not sure I'd read too much into that or any previous roles.

 

I'm just throwing out some research here. It's probably useless but look at this post:

http://www.wfcforums.com/showthread.php?51554-Werewolf-XV&p=970940&viewfull=1#post970940

"Your seer" at the end of so many of the anonymous messages. Something to keep in mind perhaps. More likely something to disregard though!

 

Second message sent at 11:34am:

 

Well, missing the first day has left me a lot to catch up on. So far there isn't anyone obvious who stands out to me, but miked is the only one I have suspicions about

 

We have so much to go on...

 

Second message is a reaction to the first and screams wolf to me.

I'd say Mike is confirmed good and VoR we have absolutely no evidence against either way apart from being suspiciously quiet, the same as many others.

 

What Seer would tell people who to lynch, based on zero evidence?

I'm convinced that message one is the seer now, which makes Mike good. Weirdly I think the message naming me good yesterday was from the wolf.

 

There is a fairly clear comparison to be made between the first message yesterday and the second message today and vice versa.

It makes a lot of sense for the wolf to attempt to mimic the seers style, but not the other way around.

 

Lets vote Daft Row.

 

Agree on both points. Unfortunately for you Darave, (and I'm taking into account the 2nd message today which shows an inexperienced wolf), why would the wolf name you as good considering they don't know any roles? I can't fathom it.

 

Or Cassetti's Beard.

 

Wow.

So if the wolf said Darave was innocent on the first day, and is now telling us to go for him on the second day, what does that show us?

Looks like he is trying to either get VOR off the hook, or make VOR look stupid and get Darave off the hook.

 

In fact I might vote for nairobi hornet. Acting suspicious to me.

 

That's what I find odd. If I was the wolf, I would of made a continuation of the previous days message and left a seed of doubt in peoples mind.

By naming me good yesterday but then suggesting I get lynched today, you have really fu*ked up wolfie.

 

Fox In The Box is super quiet and then returns just after the second message to blame Mkike? Suspect.

 

My thinking the first message could be either seer or wolf as both would naturally claim success for the Cude killing yesterday.

Both would also claim Miked as good. Seer cause he viewed him and Wolf as he knows him from the pub joint killing.

The second message confused me though as everyone said TVoR was evil yesterday based on pretty decent probability stats and last year's playing style.

I still see no reason to lynch Darave as if it was me I would have viewed him again as seer if yesterday's reasoning was Darave being a wolf.

I'm thinking second is Wolf and might well be deflecting the scent from himself.

Therefore I'm watching TVoR until more discussion ensues.

Sorry for the ramble but still learning the game as I watch and play

 

for whats its worth second message I believe to be the seer

 

Refer to post 103. That's my thinking on it.

 

just bad timing by me

 

If Cude was the Alpha Wolf then wouldn't the new wolf be told his message history?

 

PO and Mike actually made good assumptions yesterday, (Mike's arguments very nearly got me to change my vote), but as with VoR, what logical reason have we got to go for PO?

 

Why does it prove the second message yesterday was from the Seer? I read it as the opposite. It seems to me that the Seer found out Cude was evil rather than the wolf being unlucky and naming someone at random who turned out to be evil after all.

There is still the possibility Darave named himself but that would take some balls on day 1 when it's easy to stay low key.

For today's, my feeling is Seer first and Wolf second. Either way though, I don't have much suspicion on Mike or TVOR based on today's messages. Some folk were very vocal in leading others away from Cude yesterday but it came across as them being mistaken rather than misleading. But then that leaves us nowhere!

 

Why, out of interest?

 

Playing catch up - Am I right in understanding that two of the Wolves know each other and both went for Otter?

 

Good spot. Yes, that does make sense. In which case either TVOR is clean or someone is trying to put him in the frame. Either way, he looks favourite for the chop in my view, unless anyone has any better ideas?

 

Yes, that's how I understand it.

 

It's a very good point and again suggests that this is an inexperienced wolf.

These messages have been very good for us. I'd say we were more confused before them, which is rare. Normally messages just lead to disagreement and conjecture.

 

You're the only one that thinks this even though it's pretty obvious that the second message is from the wolf.

Starting to think you're the traitor!