Werewolf XVI: Day 2

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 2, 2015.

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  1. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    no logic Iam afraid, just a gut feeling again although it was correct yesterday!
     
  2. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    We know two things for sure
    On day 1 the wolf said that darave was innocent
    On day 2 the wolf said that VOR was innocent.

    One of these is likely to be our wolf, unless the wolf is naming random people to be innocent to arise suspicion.

    The wolf today didn’t truly think through the implications of their message.
     
  3. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Unless he can persuade me otherwise, TVOR will get my vote. I will wait until around 6pm though.
     
  4. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Interesting: I took a look at who posted most in the thread yesterday as a known tactic for evil is to lie low at the start. Notice anything about who the wolves took out last night?

    [​IMG]
     
  5. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    As I said earlier, he and miked were providing the strongest argument not to vote for Cude (who was evil).

    The traitor knows who is evil and will have tried to sway the votes in other directions, i.e away from Cude
     
  6. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Wow, well whilst nobody has been named as evil in either message today, there are a couple of points we can gleam from these.

    I would be inclined to say that the second message yesterday and the first message today link up, with message 1 yesterday and message 2 today being from the wolf/wolves depending whether Cude was the alpha. If we're working off of what would seem to be a fact going on yesterday's outcome, then it would seem miked is indeed good.

    The second message today seems highly reactive to the first.
     
  7. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    How do we know for sure the wolf said TVOR is innocent? There is still a chance the wolf said Miked was innocent, lets not say 'for sure' unless there is no doubt about it.
     
  8. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I think its normal practise for the seer to post first. Without going through every previous game to check, I'd guess the seer has posted first more than the wolf
     
  9. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Surely not a coincidence?

    Interesting, I wonder if there's anything in what both Simms and Otter wrote yesterday - i'll have a look and see what I can dig out.
     
  10. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    If TVOR is the alpha wolf, then I do believe that he is under enough suspicion and pressure to name himself good as a desperate attempt to save himself.

    Since the first message didn't really put anyone in the frame, TVOR may have felt desperate enough to roll the dice and try and clear himself, failing in the process to realise that HH24 would point out the fact that his message was likely from the wolf.

    Is my logic sound?
     
  11. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    Ah, I might have gotten the order mixed up! Thinking Cude = evil message was the Seer and Darave = good message from Wolf. And today Seer first and Wolf second.
     
  12. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    I'd say no. If you were Alpha in the same position would you name yourself? I know I wouldn't. I think we have an inexperienced Alpha throwing yellow smoke bombs while they learn the game.
     
  13. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Already have. Otter was on TVOR's case all day. Even asked the seer to view TVOR and now look, he's dead.

    Now the Wolf has claimed to have viewed TVOR as per request. Could be very smart, or could be TVOR just trying to clear his name desperately.
     
  14. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    I was going to write pretty much the same thing. It doesn't make sense for TVOR to name himself, when he could easily deflect attention elsewhere with his message.
     
  15. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    The alpha wolf and TVOR may have been the two wolves who met last night. TVOR would definitely be one of the main suspects today so he or the other may have felt they had nothing to lose but it isn't exactly a sophisticated tactic. Despite his protestations, TVOR is an experienced player of this game.
     
  16. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    I think it is. Even if it isn't getting rid of TVOR may help us.

    He's one of the more erratic players in the game, and ironically we need a voice of reason instead of him.
     
  17. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    Afternoon all. Want to clarify that I don't get the chance to post much at work - new job in a small company and I share an office with my line manager and one of the company directors! Reading posts I can just about get away with, writing not so much!

    So far I think Heppy and Moog have made the points that I am most convinced by and agree with. Tonight has to surely be between TVOR and Darave as the people mentioned. Like others I think the first message is from the seer so mike is safe. Which would conclude that TVOR is potentially trying to cover his own back after such scrutiny yesterday.

    Makes sense to me anyway, let me know of any glaring inaccuracies or plot holes.
     
  18. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I may have to close the dog groomers at 3pm today & vote early as, after that, I have a wild day/night ahead of me of rounders matches and school concerts (ear plugs on standby).

    In the absence of any other evidence, I am inclined to think that message 2 today is from the Wolf. If I am wrong, then can I request that the Seer in future doesn't mention people without hard evidence as it's confusing. My limited experience of the game suggests to me that a good Seer will only share facts and not conjecture.

    Also, since this game makes me increasingly doubt my own judgement (I was convinced Cude was innocent yesterday and only voted for him because I thought it was the only way to learn something concrete), can someone confirm my logic is correct in thinking today's messages mean yesterday's Msg 2 ("Cude is evil") must have been the Seer's?
     
  19. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Btw, if the second message is the Wolf, I don't think this necessarily means TVOR is bad.
     
  20. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    The message naming Cude evil yesterday is from the seer, without a doubt (in my mind).
     
  21. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    There's nothing concrete, as human error or inexperience seer make just about anything possible, but I think it's a solid line of enquiry.
     
  22. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    That's how it seems to me based on what we've had so far. The only thing that casts this in doubt is weather the wolf unknowingly named Cude yesterday.
     
  23. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    Both messages today seemed to take credit for naming Cude as evil yesterday.
     
  24. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

  25. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I think someone is trying to frame TVOR, so maybe worthwhile reading his messages yesterday to see who he targeted.

    The wolf killed someone who was targeting TVOR to draw attention to TVOR. The wolf then 'cleared' TVOR, again drawing attention to him.

    Looks too obvious to me
     
  26. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Which means that the Seer definitely did view and name Cude yesterday. The seer wouldn't lie - as HH pointed out.

    Which means the wolf named you.

    Which implies that the second message today, is probably from the wolf, naming TVOR.

    Make of that what you will.
     
  27. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I do agree

    But unless TVoR is a wolf then why would the 2nd msg have named him as good ? Surely the wolf would have named someone as bad, even if he had viewed good just to get someone lynched - no
    I don't understand why he has named darave8 as someone to focus on

    For me its a clear 2 options

    1 - the wolf was the 2nd message and has tried to give the impression that he is TVoR trying to protect himself
    2 - the wolf again is the 2nd message and it is TVoR is the wolf playing silly buggers
     
  28. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    I agree with all the above.
     
  29. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    if darave8 is teh wolf and tried to protect himself yesterday, whys he used teh same tac tic on TVoR today ?
     
  30. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    No - message 2 made no such claim. Just said "a good start but we need to get lucky again".
     
  31. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    WT has already voted for TVOR?

    Have I missed something? Although he did say yesterday that he would need to vote before 6 today and tomorrow but it seems very early!
     
  32. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Well, considering he's saying it's a good start and we need to get lucky again it's pretty obvious he's pretending to be "good", and thus taking credit for viewing Cude yesterday...
     
  33. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    Been away for a while, so have only caught to your earlier post shown above so far, but that is a very good point Moog, I've had two ganging up on me this morning, but I 'll catch up a bit more, before I name them.
     
  34. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    So many ironic names today.

    WatfordTalk doesn't talk.
    The Voice of Reason, doesn't speak with any reason.
     
  35. simms

    simms vBookie

    Well bugger. Enjoy the rest of the game lads.
     
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