Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 3

Looking back through the posts of @tonycotonstache and @TomWatfordFC they really have contributed nothing so far.

 

That's a polite way of putting it!

 

Assuming we get 2 messages today, at least that will clear up which of message 2/3 from yesterday is from the 'seer' (unless of course message 1 was)

 

That seems to be true enough to be fair. Good points.

 

Morning all - sorry a busy start to the day!

Looks like an outstanding play by the Guardian last night to keep Opti alive.

I will try to catch up on all the other content shortly.

 

Early warning, I'll have to vote pretty early if the village is definitely closing at 5.

 

I'm leaving the house at 5:30 for a bite to eat and then by 7pm I'm going to be watching a show at St Albans Arena, I will allow some extra time but I cant' guarantee it however it will definitely be closed before 7pm. I will open the "Tent" thread for tonight only but not the rest of the weekend and then we resume on Monday.

 

Story of my life. Thanks mum.

 

Yes no worries, wasn't aimed at you was more an explanation to fellow villagers that I might go very early with my vote today.

 

It's more of an issue if 5pm is not necessarily feasible for some players, I'll see what I can do but I might not have time to do a full write up of the lynching.

 

This is no less likely than any alternative theory in can come up with.

 

We need to work out which message is from whom. The only way to reveal which players are evil or good is to use logic and go for a player named as evil, not take another 25% shot in the dark that tells us nothing about which message to trust.

NI is the only player who tells us anything about the game. If he is good, we at least know the first message is from the wolf and they'll have to change styles and work out the code which is always tricky. If he's evil, it 100% clears Ashdon and Moog, we know the first message today is from the seer and the alpha will be forced to change styles.

 

Anonymous Message #2 (received 10:59)

“Good Morning Citizens.

Your Seer speaking. I have decided to view ‘Steve Leo Beleck today.

Usually I hope to bring you some good news. I can confirm that Steve Leo Beleck is another Good player

PLEASE don’t be confused by the additional roles that are just there to complicate things more.

Today I viewed Steve Leo Beleck after some questions about his validation last night.

I viewed nornironorn on day1, confirming he was good. As he was the game’s first poster. I viewed Moog on Day2, confirming he was good, following demand.

His cut inside and hit that with his right, straight into the top corner. 19,060.”

 

Interesting... So this discredits the Moog is Evil message from yesterday.

If we don't get a third message, we have to go for Norniron don't we as he will have been the only person named as Evil so far?

 

Yup. He's the only person who tells us anything.

 

Agreed. I'll be intrigued to see whether we a) get another message; and b) if we do, whether that message follows the style of day 2, message 2.

 

Yup, well laid out and agree Moog is essentially confirmed good.

One point is that we still don't know if message 2 and message 3 yesterday were from the same wolf covering their tracks.

 

Yesterday and the three messages feels key so let's set out the scenarios (assuming we don't get a third message today):

1. Seer views Norniron who is an Evil. Wolf then has to name another Evil otherwise Norn will definitely get lynched. Random third character then comes in, claims to be the Seer and names Moog as good.

2. Seer views Norniron who is an Evil. Random third player then comes in and names Moog as Evil in the wolf's style, wolf then continues with that style and calls Moog Good.

3. Wolf names Norniron as Evil. Seer then goes next and views Moog who is actually Evil. Random third player then tries to clear Moog.

4. Wolf names Norniron as Evil. Random third player then decides to name another Evil, Seer views Moog as Good.

The random third player is more likely than not to be Evil - they've copied the style of either the Wolf or the Seer and this can only be to sew confusion. If this is the case, then 1. and 2. would undermine Team Evil.

Scenarios 3 and 4 are the only ones that make sense to me, so I'm now backtracking on my earlier suggestion to lynch Norniron as think he's more likely to have been named by the Wolf.

Please tell me if/why the above logic is wrong. Obviously a third message throws all the above out the window.

 

Anonymous Message #3 (received 11:30)

“Good Morning Companions.

Your Seer speaking on the morning of Day 3.

Yesterday had me totally scattered to the point I had to defer from my initial planned message to avoid the rogue second message from gaining too much credit amongst you all. Fortunately for me, the code was not deciphered and remained intact, but clearly it was easy to mirror again today. This will change moving forward should I be around to view again. Today I will use it for the final time.

It is now that I can reveal the code’s origin:

((Number of days since Gareth Southgate’s birthday to the present day inclusive) - 10.)

This is your actual Seer, and today, I decided to view ‘tonycotonstache’ given the messaging in the village this morning. ‘tonycotonstache’ is Good.

Frustrating as though it is, given we have another player named, I feel like the web is closing on Evil. Stay positive.

On Day 1, I viewed nornironorn. He was Good.
On Day 2, I viewed wfcmoog. He was Good.
On Day 3, I have viewed tonycotonstache. He is Good.

It’s one of the most one sided games that I’ve ever seen. 19,060.”

 

FFS.

 

Here we go again... Otter you have properly blown my mind with the 3 message dynamic!

So whichever order these messages came through in, it's looking like the style of day 2, message 2 has been abandoned.

 

So if the above is true

EVIL message 1 day 1:

Morning on this lovely day villagers. Your seer here.

Today is a lottery. So I viewed Ashdon. He was good.

Hopefully I will pick the right person tomorrow.

EVIL message 1 day 2:

Morning on this rainy day villagers. Your seer here.

Today much is clearer. Earlier I viewed Nornironhorn. He is Evil. Yesterday I viewed Good Ashdon.

Hopefully the player I pick tomorrow will also be right.

Evil message 2 day 2:

Good Morning Comrades.

Your Seer speaking. What a great start to the week. I wasn’t able to help on day 1 taking a stab in the dark and viewing nornironorn who was GOOD.

It was hard today as no-one was defending Harrow or acting out of favour. But this morning it was suggested that I should view Moog and Moog themselves said that at this stage they would vote for themselves. So I took their advice and Moog is confirmed EVIL.

If ever there was a moment to grace an occasion like this, at a venue like this. 12,701.

Evil message 1 day 3:

Morning on this sunny day villagers. Your seer here.

Today not much is clearer. Earlier I viewed Moog. He is Good. So far, I have viewed Good Ashdon and Evil Nornironhorn.

Hopefully after my pick tomorrow there won’t be any evil left.

Evil message 2 day 3:

“Good Morning Citizens.

Your Seer speaking. I have decided to view ‘Steve Leo Beleck today.

Usually I hope to bring you some good news. I can confirm that Steve Leo Beleck is another Good player

PLEASE don’t be confused by the additional roles that are just there to complicate things more.

Today I viewed Steve Leo Beleck after some questions about his validation last night.

I viewed nornironorn on day1, confirming he was good. As he was the game’s first poster. I viewed Moog on Day2, confirming he was good, following demand.

His cut inside and hit that with his right, straight into the top corner. 19,060.”

Confirmation:
nornironorn – day 1 – GOOD
Moog – day 2 - EVIL

 

Day 1 is completely random. It really doesn't matter who goes first. Even if an evil is named by a very fortunate seer on day 1 and a second message comes and names someone evil, everyone would know that the second message was a desperate alpha covering their tracks.

The first poster on day 1 has gone second yesterday and today, but I wouldn't say that makes them any more suspicious.

But that's conjecture and we need to deal with facts. We need to know which message is which if we have any chance of winning this. Killing you reveals which message style is correct, and could confirm two good players so the village won't accidentally take them out. I'd say it's pretty much our only chance of winning.

 

So Message 2 Day 2, was a guess at the code and got it wrong. That can be confirmed as a message from Team Evil.

 

What? We have 3 messages today confirming I'm good. How can you be the only person who can confirm I'm good?

 

But today we have a message where a Wolf has cracked the code. So it's between SLB & Ashdon.

 

I fully agree with this. Probably makes me look evil, but as I say, having played the role of Alpha a couple of times in recent games, it would take a brave wolf to name an evil on day 1. Or at least it would IMO.

 

This is bonkers Otter