Do We Survive?

We could make similar negative cases for Newcastle, Norwich etc in their recent past, even though a lot has changed for them in the last few games. Therefore why do you refuse to consider that we could turn our chances around just like they have, and furthermore their good fortune could also reverse and go back into a slump despite their recent mini purple patches.

You guys do not seem to consider that our team has strengthened recently, by bringing in 4 new players who are still settling in but have played well on the whole so far. Plus arguably some of our better players are returning from injury too, and as they say those players are almost like having new signings as well.

All you lot seem to consider is what is up against us rather than what is now possibly in our favour with the fact that we can now field a much stronger team than the one that has been playing through our atrocious run.

Why can you not even contemplate that with our new manager, our new players and the players that we have had to do without through out our terrible run, that we could be on the brink of a run that could turn our season around and give us a fighting chance.

 

We just lost 2-0 at home to Brighton and were utterly atrocious. The only players we have to come back into the team that didn’t play in that game are much of a muchness, and nowhere near good enough to turn that sort of situation around. Players like Etebo and Nkoulou are not match winners, they’re not even remotely close to match winners. At best they might make a 2-0 loss to Brighton look slightly closer than it did last week.

 

Yes it's possible that we could turn into world-beaters and 3 clubs we need to finish above could turn into the pile of crap that we have been for months. Just highly unlikely.

 

We don't need to be world beaters, all we need is to do is start scoring again and keep a few clean sheets. As for three teams above us turning into a pile of crap we actually only need two, and I think that could be highly likely.

 

We need to hit top four form to survive, so not exactly far from world beaters. Certainly closer to world beaters than what we are currently that’s for sure.

 

But you don't actually think that could be highly likely, do you, because it's not; it's literally not highly likely. You strongly hope that it might be likely, but that's all it actually is. And that hope is fine, because we all have it, but we're not basing our actual assessment of the situation purely on hope - rather, the evidence of our performances, our players, our tactics, and all those of our rivals in conjunction.

Nobody's saying it's impossible - they're saying it's incredibly unlikely as it stands, based on all evidence to date - including the impact and performances of all these magic super-soldiers you're constantly saying we have yet to pluck out from the ether and who will all singlehandedly win us every game as soon as they make it back on to the pitch, whether they have already done so or not.

 

I didn’t say three teams above us. I said 3 teams. There’s no guarantee we keep above the side below us. So we need to show great form and be the best of the bottom 4. Unlikely but not completely impossible.

 

Still feeling confident @The Voice of Reason ? Burnley and Norwich winning away. Newcastle a point away. Brentford drawing away ?

 

Ahem….well….

 

AHEM WELL.....

YE OF LITTLE FAITH

THE ORNS ARE STAYING UP​

 

Well we made up the points lost last Saturday with an away win today! If we can somehow get a home win on Wednesday evening, then the trip to OT can be written off as a "free hit"

 

Agreed! You’ve made a believer out of me. Personally, I think we’re already safe and we just need to see out the season. Sure, our opponents had 20 shots today but that’s meaningless, I think it was one of best ever performances. And we didn’t need Deeney to beat Villa LOL! Thanks to Gino for making it possible obviously.

 

We were safe when we beat Norwich and Newcastle m8

 

As it stands (things can obviously change with every game) I think our best chance is catching Brentford as we have the two games in hand over them. We only have to win one of them and beat them to catch up with them, and by then our GD would probably be better as a result, it could end up like last season all over again. Leeds could be another, but they have a game in hand so they themselves have three games more to play than Brentford. Hard to see Everton staying this **** with all their players fit.

The big worry is Burnley below us who have 2 games in hand in us, Dyche seems to be orchestrating their patented second half of the season revival. We have a slim, slim chance if we just have to overhaul one team, but next to none if it needs to be two.

 

Nice to see even a slightly positive post from you, because at last you appear to be beginning to believe....

THE ORN'S ARE STAYING​

 

All this debate about people saying we need top 4 form to survive made me look at the data.

If we assume all of the teams continue to collect points at the same rate they have so far this season then they finish like this:


If we mange to average 1.2 points per game for the rest of the season we reach 36.2.

This is only lower mid-table form not the top 4 form some people have been saying. We still need to improve greatly on our season so far, but no where near as much as some have been saying.

Still a very difficult task, but also still possible.

 

Roy is averaging a point a game, which puts us on 32

 

Yeah! We’re staying! Hopefully indoors at the moment as it’s a bit nippy and windy today!

the futures bright the futures Pozzo

 

Realistically no, but it would be nice to continue doing as we did yesterday and put up a fight.

If only we can start returning to last season’s home form. With Palace, Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Leeds and an indifferent Leicester to visit us, there are certainly good points on offer if only we can crack winning at the Vic.

Looking defensively more sound under RH, you can’t totally rule out us picking up an unlikely point at somewhere like Chelsea or United, neither of who are ripping up trees at home.

So yes, we’ve given ourselves an outside chance. But I fear only an outside one.

Two things count against us. Can we finally find some consistency? We’ve had good wins before this season, but not followed them up. Of our four previous wins, we then lost the next fixture on three occasions, and drew once. Our longest unbeaten run this season is a pitiful two matches.

The other thing is the fact that nobody is cut adrift this season. Last time we went down, there were at least two worst sides than us and we were fighting for 17th. Burnley are a tough nut to crack and seem to have finally found some goals. Norwich are capable of winning a match or two. Newcastle seem reborn. Any week we fail to get a result now brings greater danger of us falling further behind other strugglers.

At least yesterday has lifted our moods, and if we can finally win a home match again on Wednesday in Roy’s reunion with his old club then maybe, just maybe, we can start giving the likes of Brentford and Leeds and even maybe Everton (whose away form is shocking) something to worry about. From the situation we’ve been on, that is all we can hope for I feel.

 

There was a mood at the Brighton game where it seemed everyone at the match had thrown the towel in . I certainly had changed camps from "we'll be alright" to "we are doomed" .
Yesterday has given us hope again !

 

Yes, if you rework the predictions based on current form over the last 6 games you get this.


We get relegated, but with Everton and Brentford!

You can be certain it will be tough for us, but there are too many games to go to be sure of anything.

 

Do we survive? Still no.

One grain of sand doesn't make a sandstorm. Consistency at home now is what's needed. I feel fairly confident away from home we can shut up shop and nick the odd few points on the road, as per yesterday, BUT at home when the onus is on us to take the game to the likes of Brentford, Burnley, Palace etc I can see us being held. That's the only downside to our set-up currently.

 

We need five more wins from 14, then the draws will probably take care of themselves. Not impossible but still unlikely.

 

Careful 19tgg you are beginning to sound just a little bit positive and long may it last

I agree with most of what you say above with one big caveat! I think that we can actually achieve what you suggest we need to do in your post.

 

Depends who the wins are against as well, if they were somehow against Leeds, Brentford, Everton and Burnley it would make a big difference. If any of the losses are against them then it will be even harder.

 

What is it based on average points per game under the current manager?

 

Whichever way you slice it we need another win in the next couple of games, because these are Brentford’s next 3 games:

Newcastle (H)
Norwich (A)
Burnley (H)

It’s all very well targeting Brentford to be overtaken, but if that is to be the case and come true, then our nearest rivals will all be picking up points in the next few games.

 

If you gave me this as an option now I'd take it.
Would love to see Everton relegated and have a decent bet on Brentford to go down.

 

Three draws would not be to bad IMO

 

I don't understand the question?

It is based on the last 6 games played by each team as I wrote.

 

He's asking you who survives if you use the metric of the points-per-game average of each of the teams in questions' current head coaches.

 

What if 40 points is actually going to be 40 points this season?

 

I think that’s going to be highly unlikely. You’ve got to go as high as 13th before you find a side with an average of more than 1 point per game, with Palace on 26 points from 25 games (although that will be 26 from 26 after Weds )

 

Sorry stupid auto spell

I'm sure I typed if not is