The Great Escape

We obviously do have a different perspective on things.

My view is that, yes, we have some difficult games we are unlikely to win. But then so do all of our opponents.

our recent form has put us right in the mix again. Last night was a blow, but that is football - you can’t win every game.

2-3 points give us an outside chance from our next 2 games. 6 points would be a great return that would pull us a couple of points clear, maybe more.

 

I was joking of course, but even on here you can see they are predicting around 39 points.

That’s going to put huge pressure on us. We need to claw back those clubs above us and it looks like we’re going to have to win at least one more than them in the final run in.

It’s going to be very difficult to stay up from here on in. Not impossible, but extremely difficult.

 

It's like the weather really ...

 

Sarr is so important. If he is out for couple of months it will be really difficult.

 

Wtf!

 

Yes I am extremely worried even if 39 is enough. So much seems to depend on if sarr is out for long. Without him we were back to ponderous performance like earlier in the season.

 

In think they well become our 9th and 10th must win games!

 

Here is a short treatise concerning the distinction between the climate and the weather.

The climate is a long-term trend. And we're definitely warming up. This does not of course mean that the long-term trend won't be interspersed with the odd rogue storm. This distinction has been recognised by Pearson and he has indeed warned us all to expect it. We won't win or even draw every match. Nor should we expect to.

Anyone on here who cant recognise this distinction is simply being childish.

 

I agree with you, but last nights loss now adds more to Thursday's game. If we had won last night then Thurday's result would not have mattered, but having lost it is important that we get back to winning ways. Drawing a game we should of won against a traditional top team is frustrating, followed by a loss to a relegation threatened team is bad, then losing to a poor Div1 team would be really bad for moral.

 

Watford to fail??
Don't write them off yet!

 

Posted this in the wrong thread.

19,17,11 bottom 3 points total after game week 24 in 2018/19 season
23,23,17 bottom 3 points total after game week 24 in 2019/20 season

Not scientific but everything indicates that reaching 39/40 points this season will keep you in the PL. You would also probably get away with 38 points & a better goal difference, which is why clean sheets will be worth another point this season. Cannot afford any hammerings.

 

The tragedy is that we have a player who should be the ideal backup/replacement for Saar. He has the physicality and speed but sadly his attitude is dreadful. I'm looking at you Isaac.

 

If Issac was that player, we would not of needed Sarr.

 

not "erv"

 

You are basing this on needing 40 points which many feel may not be required. It is so tight down there and I'm sure there will be a lot of movement over the coming weeks

 

I'm not sure why "many" as you say, are so objective to at least 40 points being the requirement.

West Ham, Bournemouth and Norwich COULD fall short of this, but there are not many candidates you can really apply that logic too. Villa and Brighton both have 25 points with 14 to play. They need just 5 more wins in order to get this. West Ham have 16 games, to play and only need 5 wins and a couple of draws to get that.

It's seems to me it's possible under 40 points could be enough, but that is being optimist rather than realistic. We have to hope three clubs stall in the run in and we do not. There is a lot of pressure on us, but I accept we're in the same boat as Bournemouth and maybe West Ham if they lose their two games in hand. But having 19th place on 23 points from 24 games at this stage of the season is high. Usually a couple of teams are cut adrift by now and there is a bit of a gap appearing.

This season that is not the case. It seems perfectly reasonable to expect those trends to continue. There are no really poor teams in the Premier League this season. Everyone can string a few good results together. The top 6 are not formidable this year and that's contributed to clubs gaining points from unlikely matches.

 

Its still likely that itll be under 40 required to survive. I'd like to be clear with 2 games left, which means 44 before man city. Which is a tough ask. 39 points going into man city will likely be 1-6 points above 18th.

I dont think well get that but i also dont think all the rest will have better form in the last 14 games. Because - logic and probability. You can ignore probability and think 42 points isnt enough. I'd bite your hands off for finishing on 42 points now.

 

A poll on how many points the 18th placed team will have at the end of the season would be interesting.......

 

I think the relative length of team's injury lists will have a big impact on the last third of the season. A short injury list obviously means more of your most important players available for first team selection, also more competition for places and a stronger bench. I think that a the start of this week we had six players who might have a place in the matchday squad out injured:

Janmaat
Kiko
Hughes
Cleverley
Sarr
Welbeck

If we can get this number down to 2 or 3 our chances of survival have to improve.

 

Leicester doing us a favour


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Yep...GD nicely dented as well. Let's hope they get another shafting against Liverpool next week too.

 

Come on Utd...

 

Jeez....Burnley have gone 2-0 up at Old Trafford. If Burnley win, then you can cross them off the list as possible relegation candidates. Amazing what a couple of wins can do.

 

Man U are shocking right now.
Burnley really doing nothing special to be 2 up either.
Man U need a Nigel Pearson to fire a rocket up their arse.



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Take out Pogba and Rashford, United are very ordinary and beatable.

 

Certainly are, they’re really slow going forward. If we beat tranmere and united play like this again we’ll be in the next round of the cup.


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The key thing to remember about The Great Escape is the moment of excitement and hope when the heroes break free half way through the film, ........only to be recaptured or machine-gunned to death before the end of the season, sorry, film.

 

My prediction spreadsheet suggests the following likelihood of points.

Point to stay up : No of times out of 1,000 (% chance to stay up)
44: 1 (100%)
43: 16 (100%)
42: 43 (98%)
41: 76 (94%)
40: 167 (86%)
39: 199 (70%)
38: 200 (50%)
37: 148 (30%)
36: 90 (15%)
35: 44 (6%)
34: 12 (2%)
33: 3 (0%)
32: 0 (0%)
31: 1 (0%)

 

Spoiler alert for those yet to see The Great Escape.

 

Here are a couple of charts showing how the bottom six have accumulated points this season.

The first shows the points picked up each week (assuming West Ham v Liv is a loss).

The second shows the form of teams over a 6 week period. Interestingly Muff and West Ham have broadly tracked in line with each other, and since game week 12 neither has averaged more than 6 points over a 6 game period. They will almost certainly need to buck that trend if they want to stay up.

 

DNA sequencing at its very best.

 

Good point. This one is maybe a little clearer...

 

Great work.

PS - glad you now have us in the correct colour

 

Looking at the table the last couple of rounds of matches reversed some of the inroads we'd made.

On the upside, we're in a relegation fight with 5 clubs over 2 spaces (assuming Norwich are farked already). That's a much better place than we could have hoped to be by now going into December.

The bad news is 4pts for Newcastle and 6pts for Burnley pretty much propelled them clear of trouble barring a catastrophic slump. Brighton v West Ham the day we play Everton is going to be crucial, as is our away game at Brighton a week later. We could maybe cope with defeat to Everton if Brighton and West Ham draw. But beating Brighton the week after is critical.