The Great Escape

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    I've broken down the fixtures in terms of wins, draws and outside bets.

    In order to stay up we need to aim for 40 points. Regardless of what's needed, this is what we have to aim for.

    Of course it's a hugely difficult task from our current standing position, but there is every reason to be optimistic now, seeing as we've appointed a coach with a winning mentality.

    I've listed the fixtures where I would expect we can win. These are:
    Norwich City (h ), Newcastle United (h ), Southampton (h ), Aston Villa (h ), Everton (h ).

    Here are the games where I think we have a chance of getting something out of the match.
    Bournemouth (a ), Sheffield United (a ), Crystal Palace (a ), Wolves (h ), Burnley (a ), Brighton (a ), Aston Villa (a ), Leicester City (h ), West Ham United (a )

    Here are the games where I think getting a positive result is highly unlikely, but one could produce a surprise result.
    Liverpool (h & a), Manchester City (h ), Manchester United (h & a), Chelsea (a ), Tottenham Hotspur (h ), Arsenal (a )

    So it's not out of the question we can still get out of this. Before, with Flores, there was zero chance. Now, with a fully motivated, galvanised Watford there is a chance.

    10 more wins and 1 draw/ 9 wins 4 draws/8 wins 7 draws.

    What I fully expect, from now until the end of the season, are things will be a lot better. We're not going to be quite so hopeless, and the football should be more enjoyable to watch. Whether we can turn it around remains to be seen, but I think we're going to have a fighting spirit and I'm looking forward to seeing this.

    If we turn this season into The Great Escape, then it could be one of the most memorable season's in recent years.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2019
  2. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    I must admit I did go into the game with palace with some renewed optimism.

    Going to say something a little controversial here. I’d say QSF deserves a little bit of credit. We wouldn’t have stayed up with him because we wouldn’t have done enough to win games, but he did help instil a bit of confidence in our defence. They’ve looked better last 2 games as a 4 than they did pre Quique.

    Also, slightly disappointed we haven’t given Mullins this season, seems a good coach, said the right things and instantly got the team attacking again.

    But hopefully Pearson can get the best out of everyone and as you say we have a chance, even though a small one. Could be exciting!
     
  3. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    It is controversial and I'm afraid I don't agree and I'm one of the more positive people round here.

    He did tighten up us temporarily at the expense of goals, but then we capitulated against what has proved to be a poor Burnley side and we couldn't hold onto a lead vs a worse Southampton team whose fans were getting on their backs in the first half.

    It was an unwelcome throwback to the last couple months of his previous reign, when not only weren't we scoring in open play, but also we could no longer defend with any consistency and had Gomes to thank for the only clean sheet we had after the Arsenal quarter-final when he saved those penalties from West Brom.
     
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  4. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Yep, don’t disagree with that overall. I just think we’d not kept a clean sheet for something like 17 games? He got 3 or 4 in fairly quick succession and maybe this added some confidence. His wrong doings far outweigh this, just think maybe our defenders did pick up a bit of confidence in this spell.
     
  5. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    We'll stay up with ease, been saying it since things got bad.
     
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  6. sdc_watford

    sdc_watford First Year Pro

    So end of last season then, when, in fact, we did stay up.
     
  7. Hornet4ever

    Hornet4ever WFC Forums Last Man Standing Winner 2018/2019

    I'll change my avatar if you change yours. Both out of date.
     
  8. WatfordÉire

    WatfordÉire Squad Player

    I actually have noticed you saying this the last while, wasn't sure if if was wind up or genuine though!

    What are the reasons behind your unwavering belief?

    I'm somewhere in the middle, don't think we're dead and buried like some but acknowledge it'll be something special to see us stay up. Still of the belief that the majority of the squad seems too good to go down, but our form and results show otherwise.
     
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  9. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Reservist

    Unless Pearson drills the whats left of the strikers, we are gone. It doesnt matter how well we press or stay in a formation and defend well, yo have to take your chances. Gray Success and Deeney all have to step up now and show they can still do it.

    If we go down, i cannot see any of them starting games. I would expecf some of the U23s given a shot. We could well be the Chelsea of the Champo.
     
    Ybotcoombes likes this.
  10. Happy yellow

    Happy yellow Academy Graduate

    I think we have no chance simply because we are not scoring goals

    We have scored 7 goals from open play this season with 2 penalties. We have 9 goals this season while everyone else ( except Palace who have 14 goals) have scored at least 17 goals this season!

    Signing no strikers apart from one who is almost always injured was not exactly a masterstroke by the Watford hierarchy and I fear that leaving it to January may be too late.

    You list winnable games but I would say that we have had a few of those recently Burnley at home, Southampton away and Palace at home. Result was one point.
     
    SkylaRose likes this.
  11. Hornet4ever

    Hornet4ever WFC Forums Last Man Standing Winner 2018/2019

    I just don't see it happening.There are not 3 teams worse than us. It is that plain & simple. League is all topsy turvy nowadays anyone can beat anyone & that goes against us further. All boils down to the fact we can't score any effin goals anymore. Forget Pearson or anyone. We are done, sooner you can face it, the better.

    TBH with all the VAR coming in now, brought it home to me recently how football has changed IMO not for the better & somehow the whole game doesn't seem to matter as much any more as I thought it would.
     
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  12. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I strongly suspect we will look back on the Flores spell as the reason we went down. I think we'll put up a decent fight now and come close to getting out of it but our owners' panicked and moronic decision to re-hire a failed coach and waste a load of games with him killed us.
     
  13. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    That's the biggest mystery this whole season for me (with the second biggest being why certain fans were actively rooting for him to return).

    I can't comprehend how we decided to give him another run when he did so poorly last time around. At least a dozen posters correctly predicted exactly what would happen so it was hardly difficult to spot. Mind you, while I expected to see him leave relatively quickly I did not think he'd be out before the end of the year. At least the club admitted the mistake quickly and moved on, even if it did cost us valuable weeks.

    If Pearson can string together a few wins the picture will change quickly. As UEA once pointed out, you have to be consistently awful to get relegated from the Premier League and a reasonable run can clear you out of the relegation zone relatively quickly. Whether or not Pearson is capable of engineering this remains to be seen, but he does have a reputation as a bit of a taskmaster.

    The good news is that if he does fail, at least we have a head coach in charge who has proven he can get results in the Championship. He's one of a very short list of managers who have proven they can not only get teams promoted, but also keep them there.
     
    StAlbansRd...Hornet likes this.
  14. Lloyd

    Lloyd Reservist

    If we're within 6 points of safety at the turn of the year there might be cause for optimism
     
    Spoad likes this.
  15. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    Who achieved two unwanted club records in the process.
     
  16. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    I don’t think people were rooting for QSF to return. As far as I was concerned the appointment came right out of the blue.
     
    CleyHorn likes this.
  17. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    Not much to be disagreed with in HB1's thinking.

    But I reckon that most of the teams above us will also be looking at the fixtures ahead, with a similar trepidation. But we can improve more than most of them.

    What we need to remember is that our squad is not much different from what we had last season that finished mid-table and in the Cup Final. We are a mid table squad, and we are only falling short in our (players) heads, in a lack of confidence and positivity - our technical ability has remained mid-table, as players cannot lose their skills, only their mindset.

    I am worried about scoring goals, as I have said for 2/3 years that our defence have the ability and need organising, whereas our "goalscorers actually lack goalscoring instinct, mobility and ability. I have always thought that neglecting to sign a goalscorer was a bigger mistake than not signing a good CB. But, a new coach can bring a new positive mindset and confidence, and that will mean improved mobility, shooting more, and creating more chances from fumbles, mistakes, and who knows what a couple of good goals could do for the confidence up front.

    I would rather be in our position, with our squad, our coach, and with maybe a boy from Brazil helping us, than Norwich, Southampton or Villa, and I think a few clubs above them are still going to struggle and it'll be too late for them to change coach.

    I also think that there are maybe 6 to 8 games so far where we were so unlucky, or on the wrong end of VAR, where very fine margins cost us points, 3 points on several occasions.

    So, having made the change of coach now, I think we will stay up with a few points to spare.

    There, I've said it.
     
  18. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    The scoring goals issue potentially can be addressed by the existing players. Last year we had the likes of Gray, Deeney, Delefeou and Pereyra who chipped in with goals. We have all those players this year plus Sarr, and Pedro joining in January. Confidence is clearly low, but we will need several players to take responsibility for the goals.
     
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  19. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    I share your concerns over the strikers. Right now we're relying on Deeney and Gray. Deeney does not get into goal scoring positions often enough. 1 shot in every 3 or 4 games shows that. Gray is technically dreadful at the level of football he's playing at. Both are seasoned pro's but neither will improve their goal output. I've always felt that playing Deeney is like playing with one striker light. He has a lot to offer the side, but scoring goals is not one of them.

    So we're left with Deulofeu who had a good scoring season last year, but he's not a striker. He's a clever player who will chip in now and again. Same with Pereyra. He's not a goal scorer.

    We used to have a decent quota from midfield we could count on. But Doucoure has lost the ability to shoot. He cannot keep the ball down. He must be doing something fundamentally wrong as he lifts the ball over the bar every time he shoots with power.

    We do not score from freekicks or corners either, but good tactical coaching can increase our possibilities on that front.

    However, all is not lost. I believe Sarr will start to accelerate his progress and will become a real handful for opponents. I'm expecting him to score and provide goals in the second part of the season. We'll have the unknown potential of Pedro to tap into as well. Plus, we cannot forget Welbeck. If we get him fit, he's going to be like a new signing for us. I'm sure we'll also have one or two more ideas in the transfer market, albeit on loan.

    I cannot believe the constant bad luck with decisions will continue either. Had VAR been used correctly, we'd most likely have 4 away wins and would have won on Saturday. We're in a bad position but we're not a million miles off.

    If we get it right, we have the ability to get results against all teams outside of the top six, like we did last season. We were the best of the rest with getting results outside the top six last season, and that type of form has to be reproduced in order to pull away.

    Two quick wins will dramatically change the picture. If we get that, then I'll think we'll be on a roll, and the season could be very exciting, winning every other week and clawing our way out of trouble.
     
  20. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Oh, they certainly were. :)
     
  21. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    It would be a remarkably fun season if we stayed up.

    But how likely is it we go from 1 win in 15, to 8 or 9 wins in 23 (plus a few draws). Also we're one of the few who still has 2 games v Liverpool to come.

    We need to win most games we have a shout of winning and hope the luck (or VAR) is with us.

    There were many, including me, who defended the decision. In my part it seemed to look at where we were going wrong (defending) and had an quick effect on that (clean sheets). However after a few games it became clear that was all Flores had got and the dirge got worse and worse. However there wasnt any campaign to get hime back from any individual or group of watford fans. In fact with 30 minutes between Gracia leaving and Flores coming in, there wasnt time for any rooting or clamouring at all!
     
  22. R4E

    R4E Reservist

    Was it really that unclear from his first spell that he was a one-trick pony? We thrived in our first season up solely because Deeney and Ighalo created goals for each other. The other 9 players were on the pitch to defend. Once the other teams sussed those two out we had nothing and QSF continued playing the same way, with the same players in the same formation. It was glaringly obvious that he was the wrong choice and it's a real shame that we wasted at least 4 very winnable games playing his negative brand of football.
     
    Chumlax likes this.
  23. GoingDown

    GoingDown Pizza & Figs

    Yet there was a hell of a lot of defending him going on after those 4 winnable games. Especially the Sheff Utd disgrace.
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  24. All but 3 of the Great Escapers were caught, many were shot
     
  25. Squibba

    Squibba Predictor Choker 14/15

    When I look at relegation prospects, I tend to look at what else is around in the league rather than just focus on us.

    I think Norwich are nailed on to go, just not enough quality all over the pitch, so there are two spots up for grabs.

    Southampton are like us, they have enough quality but the main difference being a goal-scoring striker in Ings which is proving invaluable right now.

    Villa are a team of two extremes. Conceding goals for fun but also scoring a lot. If their goals scored dries up they're in trouble, if they start keeping clean sheets they will be more than comfortable. The work rate of McGinn and genius of Grealish keeping them above water. Heavily reliant on those two, if one gets injured for a long spell I think they'd be considerably worse.

    I actually think Bournemouth will be in serious trouble this year but Saint Eddie will find a way out of it I'm sure.

    Everton too big a club to go down I think, West Ham have enough in Anderson, Haller, Yarmolenko etc to pick up enough wins.

    Annoyingly Newcastle & Palace would be two teams I'd consider to have worse squads than us but somehow with two dinosaurs in charge they are flying. Both due a bad run of form and I pray someone takes Zaha away in January, without him Palace will drop down the table and that would help us massively.

    Wilder performing miracles at Sheff Utd and they're almost safe already.

    It's a very, very strange season which has just conspired against us. The likes of Brighton, Newcastle & Palace should all be down there with us if the game was played on paper but it's just not panning out that way. The four defeats to start with could have been excused, but the QSF reign may very well be what made it too difficult to stay up.
     
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  26. There no excuse for the 4 first defeats when the gurning **** had the experience of last season to base his plans on and all pre season to prepare. It’s worse than what Flores did.
     
    MarlonsCellMate, Spoad and wfcmoog like this.
  27. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    I've seen the future. It ends well for us, survival and a cup run, see you at Wembley.
     
  28. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I am sorry, but you're are mistaken about that. There were some on these very forums, including back and forth responses where people challenged them on the notion.

    I'm not interested in "naming and shaming" so if you don't believe me you'll have to check back through the threads yourself, but the comments are there.
     
  29. Charles Bronson. John Leyton and James Coburn.
     
  30. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    You have forgotten Burnley, they will hopefully be in a relegation battle too.
     
  31. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Reservist

    Grays movement+Troy's decisiveness would make a Premier League quality striker imo
     
  32. Squibba

    Squibba Predictor Choker 14/15

    A testament to the work Dyche is doing that. I guess if they were to get in the scrap, you'd fancy them to have the right set up to rally together and win when required.

    Burnley would be the perfect team to support in a relegation "six-pointer" I'd always back them!
     
  33. Squibba

    Squibba Predictor Choker 14/15

    I think what Pete might mean is, nobody wanted QSF back, I think it's fair to say we were ALL surprised.

    However, once he was appointment some people did try to put a positive on it, I remember because even I was convinced in the end that it might be a savvy appointment and I hated him so much the first time that I didn't renew my season ticket.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  34. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Point I'm making is there were indeed those that did, because I had conversations with them regarding it in the weeks before he was appointed. I distinctly remember because I was astounded anyone would want him back after the end of his first season, coupled with the absolute dependence we had on Iggy being in the form of his life. This club owes Ighalo a huge amount of respect in that regard.

    I'm not referring to people who were looking to make the best of QSF's appointment after the fact. That's a different thing entirely and, I think, wholly reasonable in the spirit of everyone pulling in the same direction. There's little point actively undermining things, after all. :)
     
  35. R4E

    R4E Reservist

    Interesting stat nicked off WML...

    If you assume we need 27 points from 22 games (36 pts being the usual survival mark all bar a couple of seasons), someone has broken down every run of 22 games since we came up. There have been 147 runs of 22 games (I guess these all overlap and run across seasons), and 49 of those have resulted in 27 points or more. So on that basis we have a 1 in 3 chance of achieving enough points to stay up.
     

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