The Championship 2020-21

Shame fans still won’t be allowed back in stadiums by then...

 

It is, but hearing the Prem's plans for letting fans back in for the end of the season (which I think were shelved in the end), it involves 2 rounds of fixtures so that it gives each team a chance to have a crowd. Our last two games are Brentford away and Swansea at home, since our home record is fantastic and I'd take our chances against Swansea with or without a crowd, continuing the empty stadiums might not do us any harm since I don't particularly fancy having to face a crowd against Brentford

 

It's not a coincidence that the playoffs don't start until the 17th though.

 

Mine too. Also Harry Trueman. Most underrated president of all time

We are therefore bound to win.

 

...and Gary Glitter. Maybe God will punish us ?

 

They basically need to mess up in 3 more matches than us, and it goes without saying that we have to beat them.

It’s very improbable, and as HB1 says, probably relies on us winning every match (or maybe drawing one that isn’t vs Norwich) until the end of the season. With our fixtures, that would be very tough.

I think we’re relying on an injury to Pukki or Buendia for it to happen, but I’ll still believe until it’s not mathematically possible.

 

12:30pm KO against Lut*n

https://mobile.twitter.com/WatfordFC/status/1381600489758941191

 

When you look at the tweet you remember what a dreadful **** hole their ground is. I reckon the second worst in the Championship is Wycombe however it's a tidy little ground for a club that is at its highest level in football and is quite suitable for L1 or L2, after that I don't think anyone else really has a bad stadium in the Championship currently.

 

Wife suggested we went away for the weekend but I explained that would be quite a high risk strategy.

 

Never mind the similarities (or lack of) to our last two fixtures to last season, there is a rather ominous one as far as Brentford are concerned.

Before they had their 8 game winning run they had an indifferent period of form, they had a sequence of W, D, D, L, D, D (7 points) Then the first win of their 8 game winning streak was a 5-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.

They’ve just had L, W, D, D, D, D (7 points) then beaten Preston 5-0.

So last season an identical patch of bad form was followed by a 5-0 win and an 8 game winning streak.

Form of any type is only temporary, they’re more than capable of repeating exactly what they did last season and no doubt last season after 7 points from 6 games everyone probably thought it was impossible/never going to happen.

 

If you look further back you'll see they had 13 points from 11 games, that was more than just a blip. So their worst run of form has been worse than our worst (11 points from 8 games) and their best run of form (the 21-match unbeaten run) has still not been as good as our best.

All that doesn't suggest they're suddenly going to put together a seven match winning streak to pip us to second place, people likely thought the above wasn't going to happen last season because they're a small club and they were largely an unknown quantity, now teams are more aware of how they operate. They're good but they're hardly unstoppable like Man City can be at times.

 

I think it’s not a done deal yet but this rationale seems a little too speculative. 7 points from five games is fairly frequent haul, results rarely mirror exact sequences from past years, and Brentford also lost the final two matches after that sequence, with promotion on the line. If there is an echo to look out for from last season, it’s likeliest to be Brentford showing a lot of quality throughout the season, underperforming their xG and not quite getting over the line for the top 2.

 

Swansea also had a run of 7 wins from 8 in the 2010/11 season, so can't rule them out either.

 

Yeah, I know that such a pattern is unlikely to repeat itself. It was more the indifferent form being identical, but their recent indifferent form being the reason they couldn’t win their remaining games. Clearly the same logic would’ve been applied last season and then they spanked someone 5-0 and won 8 in a row.

This from their forum is fairly reassuring though:

Bees Final Points Tally and Association Auto Promo Chance
86pts 5% (WWWDDL)
87pts 15% (WWWWDL)
88pts 17% (WWWWWL)
89pts 44% (WWWWWD)
91pts 78% (WWWWWW)

Repeat last seasons pattern and they probably go up, draw just one game of the 6 and they probably don’t.

 

As I said earlier if we beat Luton and Millwall that puts us on 88 points, it only takes one defeat for Swansea and two draws from Brentford and they can't reach us.

For now we just need to beat Luton and reassess as by then Brentford would have played, and Swansea twice.

 

And definitely not lose then, if it comes to that scenario.

 

At the very best we will be promoted after the Millwall match.

Although mathematically possible by next Tuesday, it's unlikely.

 

Talking about coincidental similarities between seasons, I was thinking about the vast discrepancy between Norwich's performance in the Premier League and their performances in the Championship either side of it.

At the moment Norwich are almost dead certs to win the league for the second time in three seasons and are on course for 101 points. They got 94 points the last time they went up, that's an average of 97.5 points over two Championship seasons. In the Prem they only got 21 points, a difference of 76.5 points.

Now Sunderland won the title in 2004/05 and 2006/07 with 94 and 88 points respectively, averaging 91 points, but only got 15 points (at the time a Prem record) in between those seasons, a difference of 76 points.

That similarity is quite remarkable, especially when you consider the gap between the Prem and Championship has (supposedly) got smaller in recent years. But there is hope for Norwich based on how Sunderland and other clubs who kept going up and back down before eventually establishing themselves in the top flight did - Sunderland stayed there ten years (albeit mostly struggling against relegation), West Brom eight, Crystal Palace eight and counting. And Norwich themselves proved capable of staying up comfortably in the top flight not all that long ago, so it needn't always be this way for them.

 

...Assuming we beat Luton and Millwall of course .

 

See above the ultra sophisticated super spreadsheet. Highlighting how important every point is ftom here on in. Brentford have to beat Bournemouth away and us at home to get maximum points, whilst not drawing any game. I think 7 points will see us home. I think we will get 9 or 10.

 

Now this I can understand. None of that xG and xGA nonsense.

 

I think if they beat both us and Brentford they may well deserve it, as it is I can’t see them beating Bournemouth and could easily drop points against either Millwall or Cardiff. I think their other games are nailed on wins.

 

If we get autos, great.

If not then it's a great opportunity -
we can enjoy knocking Bournemouth out in the playoffs...

Before losing to Barnsley at Wembley and doing it all again next season.

 

For some reason I see him as a tiny John Hamm.

 

I keep obsessively checking bookies odds - we are between 1/8 and 1/12 for top 2, 1/12 to 1/20 for promotion. For some reason those odds are quite out of whack with the much more pessimistic outlook in my head.

 

The bookies will set odds on liabilities and probabilities rather than an emotional wreck that is the average football fan.

 

Why not go beat the Scum and Norwich. It's not like they're invincible. They're a good side but so are we!

 

I agree, in fact if Norwich win on Saturday they're promoted so it could be they relax a little on Tuesday and we benefit.

 

Given how absurd this division is you could barely rule out a scenario where Brentford pip us on the final day, but Norwich have had an insane collapse and we pip them to second.

 

Ok I didn't realise that. That's even better. I just want to see us absolutely crush the living s h I t out of the Scum first and sit pretty Tuesday and see us cruise to a win at the carrots.

 

Even a point for us at this stage makes it much harder for Brentford..

 

I also think that when we play Swansea, they will probably want to rest players (or ensure no injuries/suspensions) for the play offs, so I'd expect points there but I'd rather not leave it until the last day.

 

Can get 7/1 on Brentford for top 2. I'm probably going to lump on that instead of a succession of smaller weekly bets against the results we need.

Watch Swansea surge now.