Covid-19 Virus

Yeah, and if his eyesight was so poor he wasn't able to drive then she'd end up having to drive the whole way.

Couldn't possibly have that, better go for a 60 mile round trip to make sure we avoid that slight inconvenience.

 

My latter point though about him though, is one that I don’t understand. He clearly said he felt well enough to return to work, and this is a man who apparently a workaholic is who works 16 hour days. But despite feeling well enough to return to work he wasn’t sure if he was well enough to drive, surely the two to go hand in hand?

It just so happens that he took the 30 mile trip to Barnard Castle on his wife’s birthday, and would you believe it he was fine to drive back to London the next day after all?

And coincidentally on that first Monday back in London, he edited the blog post he mentioned at the start of his fairytale yesterday where he apparently foresaw this happening, to add the word coronavirus. No doubt because after being spotted on his jolly to Barnard Castle the previous day he was already cooking up the story about how to defend it.

 

As the saying goes - follow the birthdays - when was his mother's birthday?

 

Totally agree. And I'm sure most of his day to day work could be conducted online remotely anyway.

Changing his blog to make out he foresaw the pandemic in April this year and then claiming (twice) that he wrote it last year goes to show the character and honesty of the man.

 

An MP has just resigned over it

 

When I've broken my glasses and need to get home but am stopped by the police:

"Just driving to test whether I can see properly, officer".

"That's absolutely fine, sir. On your way."

 

https://news.stv.tv/politics/tory-mp-douglas-ross-resigns-as-minister-over-cummings-row

 

It seems Brits were really bothered about social distancing and avoiding mass gatherings over the Bank Holiday weekend (Bournemouth Beach):

 

I don’t really get the issue with this. If you let brits go to the beach, on a sunny bank holiday they will, in their droves. If you don’t like it don’t go, because it’s guaranteed to be like this.

And given that pubs/restaurants/shopping centres/gigs/festivals/offices etc are all still closed, given that gathering outside is meant to be low risk then if we can’t all flock to places like this without the virus spreading like mad again, well then we’re ****ed anyway aren’t we?

 

I'd like to see the same image from above. Press photographers know what sells and are prone to taking images from crafty angles to make everyone seem bunched up.

 

They are in training to be journalists and paps

 

Given that much less than 1% of them on that beach have it and that you’d assume of that 1% they’re mostly asymptomatic, coupled with there being no conclusive evidence (I don’t think there is yet?) that asymptomatic people spread it through breathing, then you’d have to say it’s not the big issue it’s made out to be anyway.

 

Not Brits generally but stupid Brits who think they are invincible. I don't care whether the government said you can travel everywhere (which is stupid) or whether pubs, festivals etc are closed or whether the virus doesn't spread as easily outside. It's just stupid people following stupid government advice thinking they know better.

Second peak incoming...

 

The whole Cummings thing is like a very British version of the OJ Simpson trial.

We all know he did it and is a liar, but him and his team have a little story for each stage to cover it.

 

I worry what folk with your mentality will do if this second peak doesn't arrive or is a damp squib? You're staking a lot on it.

 

So if we can’t do this how do we move forward then?

no data so far has suggested the relaxation of the rules has pushed the R above one.

 

My 'mentality'?

It's about risk. If there isn't a second peak, that would be fantastic - obviously. If there is, people sitting on crowded beaches are more likely to be part of it. They are the sort of people who would say 'I'm alright, Jack. I've not had the virus' forgetting that it's still doing the rounds and that it takes days after infection before any symptoms show.

If they want to take that risk, that's up to them but I think they're being stupid to follow stupid government advice. I wouldn't risk it, it's not worth staking my health, that of my family, or another lockdown, on it.

 

Just don't do it - yet. There are many safer ways of enjoying a hot bank holiday outside instead of going to a crowded beach. The resort towns told them not to go, the residents told them not to go. But they did, in their droves, where they are more likely to push the R back above one. The average beach-goer will have been in close proximity to hundreds of others.

 

It is known that UV light kills any of the virus in the air, hence why flu is more prevalent in the winter. Allowing people out is a valid part of the easing of lockdown and the fine weather will help cut the number of cases provided people do keep their distance. The bigger headache is to stop the spread in enclosed spaces such as schools, offices, shops & public transport. With non-essential shops being allowed to reopen on 15th June, there will be grater customer choice and partly mitigating the need for some people to crowd in the same shops as probably is the case now.

That leaves schools, offices and transport. Transport can be dealt with by minimising the number of people using it by encouraging, where possible, more car use for the short term future, and where not possible staggering work times and a requirement to wear masks. Offices will probably allow people to continue to work from home as much as is practicable and can stagger work times and make layout changes otherwise.

Schools are the problem area, working in 'pods' and staggering start, end and breaks is the easy bit, getting young children to abide by the rules is another matter.

 

So when do we do it? If this pushes the R above 1 then we’re screwed, surely it’s better to know that now? Surely we have to start somewhere and allowing people to travel to places like beaches is the most sensible place to start. I’ts literally the first step which logically we have to take at some point to get to the next one. Northern Italy and London were not hammered because of people outside on beaches, all the scientists suggests this is not how the virus spreads.

And if that is your view, I’m not sure you can blame government advice. These beaches would be busy on a bank holiday in any situation, there are plenty of quite beaches and quiet parts of beaches. It’s human nature, specific seemingly British human nature to go to a beach and plonk yourself right on the busiest part, when you could take a short walk and have a nice quiet bit all to yourself. That isn’t the governments fault that’s just people being stupid. It’s something over never done, pandemic or otherwise.

 

I was waiting for the journos to ask this yesterday. Apparently she had got better, he wasn't quite right, and she has a driving licence.

So is Dom one of those sexist oafs who won't allow the little woman to drive when he's in the car?

 

Yeah, if what you just posted is a fair reflection of your view of risk then I'd describe it as hinting at you having a very conservative mentality. A lot of those I've read expressing similar views also completely dismiss the government's advice out of hand. Don't you think the epidemiologists have thought about the risk of a second peak? It looks more likely than not it'll see a seasonal resurgence when winter starts, but whether they'll be a second peak in the way Spanish Flu happened remains to be seen.

If after taking on board the government's advice you decide on taking a more conservative path that's your choice. I respect that even if I think it's detached from the reality this virus is going to be with us for long time to come.

For the avoidance of doubt, I've not been to any beaches or country parks or other tourist traps in months.

 

Nope, we all have to stay in until R hits whatever made up number the lockdown lovers think is safe.

I can't remember where (not on here) but I saw someone the other day saying they absolutely wouldn't be sending their child back to school until the daily death count was consistently under 50. Asked why they'd chosen that completely arbitrary figure there was no answer. It's a ludicrous and illogical mindset some folk have backed themselves into.

 

As Peston asked

 

Now a new phrase will enter the language to balance one which became popular a few months ago.

Caught out in disgraceful behaviour = "seen at Barnards Castle".
The alibi: "No, I was at the Pizza Express in Woking."

 

At the briefing yesterday they said in the prior week 0.25% of the population had it. And that isn't now a figure based on tests done on the people presenting at hospitals like before (and as result the number is actually much higher) that’s based on random testing of the population, so is in fact a broadly accurate figure.

So we really are in to the realms of diminishing returns here. The virus is at very low levels, how much longer do you wait before you attempt to get back to normal and how much damage does that waiting do in return for minimal reduction in cases?

 

"Michael Gove says he has driven to test his eyesight as he defends Dominic Cummings".

I usually go to the opticians, but maybe I've done it wrong all these years.

 

So you accept the herd immunity model with 200,000+ deaths? Fair play if you do, but that is the choice. Or do you suppress it for a few more weeks to a point it can be 'permanently' suppressed with track and trace like South Korea/NZ.

 

You’ve fallen in to the trap of it being binary, it’s not. At the moment we’re talking about people going to beaches, that’s it. I’m saying there is no issue with that because it’s low risk. Then it will be incremental steps back toward some sort of normality. It’s possible that these incremental steps can still be taken and we still remain below 1, so the virus remains at very low levels and/or gradually declines. With the R below 1 ‘herd immunity’ as you put it would probably take about two years based on how many people would be infected at any one time.

But in the subject of track and trace, do you honestly think out government are capable of doing a competent job of it like in Singapore or South Korea?

 

Agree. The question is whether the incremental steps will be dramatic enough to satisfy any end the lockdown clamour/save economy and keep the R number below 1.

 

My mentality is usually quite liberal, but for this I'm taking more precautions, particularly because I'm in my 50s and I have an 80yr old mother. I don't trust this government to act in the interests of the majority of its people given the dithering at the start of the pandemic. I think the government's advice is based on the 'science' they choose to tell us about (we all know there are 'lies, damn lies and statistics'). The Cummings debacle just reinforces my belief this government thinks we're all stupid and will swallow any old tosh they tell us.

The reality that the virus is going to be around for a long time is exactly why I'm being more cautious! In my view, the crowded beach-goers are the ones who think it's all over. I hope they don't regret their choice.

 

And that’s why I think we actually need people crammed onto the beaches, because we need to know that at least this is safe or otherwise. All science suggests it’s low risk, so if it’s not then well, we need to rethink our strategy. I personally think it will be fine, everything I’ve read suggests gathering outside is the lowest risk of transmission. The main risk comes in enclosed settings with ongoing contact. Viral load appears to be a big factor with this virus, which will not be a big factor in open air. But papers like to show people huddled on beaches and people like to get enraged over it all the same.

 

Hahaha! The opticians? Really? No, no, no. Gove and Cumstains have got it right. You go off motoring to test your sight. Well known fact.


I have come across LOADS of people on the roads round here, for whom a mobile driving sight test is the only possible reason to explain their manoeuvres.

 

Government advice hasn’t really changed though, they’re still advising people to practice social distancing and stay 2m apart, they’re just allowing people to travel where they want and stay out for longer, the government aren’t advising people to cram onto the beaches, quite the opposite. If people are stupid enough to do that I don’t think that’s poor government advice, that’s just people being thick.