Covid-19 Virus

Well they're mortality figures, so it's natural for them to focus on death

Of the 8,457 new reported cases of people hospitalised with Covid-19 last week [See Page 15] it looks like <400 were aged under 49.

(https://assets.publishing.service.g...y_National_COVID19_Surveillance_w21_FINAL.pdf)

What this strongly suggests is for under 45s getting sick with Covid-19 is a non-event. Or rather, is no different to anything else we previously had to contend with. People in that bracket will still need to practice social distancing to some degree and hand washing etc is a must. But they are also the bulk of the working age population and it seems madness to prevent them all from working when there's increasing evidence this virus is of no big concern to them.

The focus needs to be on how they need to change some behaviours protect the vulnerable, not on inflating and misrepresenting the threat to them just to keep them in line in some bizarre 'we're all in it together' fairytale. Coincidentally, it'll be the under 45s paying for it for decades to come too...

 

I agree with 'we're all in it together' being a fairytale, but if all those under 45 take the view that “this virus is of no big concern to them” then we really are in trouble.

 

Well I’m under 45, but have parents in their seventies. From a personal risk point of view the virus doesn’t concern me so much that I wouldn’t do anything I did before hand if I had the option to. At the same time if everything went back to normal but the virus was still circulating I’d have to weigh that up against putting my parents at risk and potentially avoid seeing them, at least in the normal way. I think it’s possible to not be worried by the virus personally, but conscious of your actions still.

 

Oh well, that's Corfu off the list for summer...
British tourists could become pariahs in Europe, as Greece left the UK off a list of low Covid-19 countries from which holidaymakers can come to visit.

Britain is currently excluded from Greece’s current “white list” of 19 countries where its scientists judge the coronavirus infection rates to have fallen enough for tourists to be allowed into the Aegean holiday favourite.

Among those on the list are China, Japan, Australia, Norway, Poland and Serbia but Britain, Italy, Spain and the United States are excluded.

Asked if Britain would be included on the “white list,” Greek tourism minister Haris Theoharis said: “The UK has a big difference in terms of the current medical status of the country with Greece, so I don’t think it’s likely it will be there.”

 

For anyone still planning on going to Europe it will be Greece's loss and Spain's gain.

 

The immediate future of summer tourism rests more on what our government does I think. If they insist on imposing the 14 day quarantine it's going to make foreign travel basically impossible for most families even if their destination is prepared to take them.

 

I see Scotland has announced from tomorrow a maximum of 8 people from two households can meet outside either in a public place or private garden. I presume England's going to have the same in place?

 

We're still on 1 person from a household can meet 1 person from another household in a public place only.

 

Apparently up to 1000 people no matter whether they have driven 250 miles and don't know each other can congregate on beaches.

 

I believe we are going to announce 9.....

 

According to Reuters: The government has said it plans to restore international flights to Greece’s islands from July 1 but will refuse entry to citizens from countries with high infection rates until July 15.

So after July 15 is probably OK. I'm supposed to be flying to Thessaloniki in mid-August for a week in northern Greece, then another flight to Bucharest for a week in Romania then home. Not sure the whole trip will happen, but some might.

 

Interested to get an idea of the extent of track and trace after its historic roll out today.

It’s going to be key in facilitating the return of something towards the old normal, but is pretty resource intensive.

 

A predictable and chastening failure.

 

C’mon who’s coming down the park for a kick around?! First five names.

 

Interesting article on Sky News about the rehab of Covid patients. There has been, understandably a great deal of focus on the death rate, but those who have survived hospitalisation may have considerable longer term needs, even life-liming ones after spending possibly weeks on mechanical ventilation, which is highly intrusive and requires sedation/paralysis of usual lung function.

Patients will receive treatments for tracheostomy wounds and therapy to recover heart, lung and muscle function, as well as help with mental health issues such as PTSD and anxiety. Others may need help with their speech and social care support for basic, everyday needs. Sir Simon Stevens, NHS chief executive, said: "While our country is now emerging from the initial peak of coronavirus, we're now seeing a substantial new need for rehab and aftercare for COVID patients who've come through this terrible illness."
Doctors are recognising that COVID-19 is more than just a respiratory condition. It can be a devastating multi-system disease. Survivors might suffer heart failure and strokes. And after long spells on ventilators in an intensive care unit, there is a longer term mental health impact to be considered with possible PTSD, cognitive damage and the resulting anxiety it causes.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...survivors-after-infections-pass-peak-11996571

 

Yes, it's easy to forget the real stories behind the stats.

"Surviving" does not mean "recovered". They are the equivalent of wounded and may face life changing medical issues for the rest of their lives.

 

Yes, an important consideration. I’m sure I read the need for this sort of intrusive intervention had reduced as doctors learned more about Covid and balanced the benefits against the costs. Hence the CPAP treatment thing Boris got, where probably if he’d ended up at St Thomas’ two or three weeks earlier he’d have been fully ventilated. The medicinal consensus seemed to shift relatively quickly on that one.

Nonetheless, it would be interesting to see who is most affected by this. I imagine like deaths and hospitalisations it’s very heavily skewed towards pensioners.

 

Had a day off yesterday so went to local reservoir and canals. Loads of people there. While sitting social distancing was observed but not much sign of it when walking around. Families walking 4 abreast which meant it was impossible to walk past with any distance at all. Mixed bag in consideration for the rules.

 

Yes, thank you for your diligent reminder, but the numbers are so large there are plenty of people with a long life ahead to feel the long-term effects.

The treatment regimes certainly did change, but there remain high numbers requiring ventilation sometimes for weeks on end. Michael Rosen the poet, for example, went on ventilation early in April, only recently off it. A survivor, so not on the excess deaths tally, but an experience of profound significance.

 

Do you have any numbers you can direct me to please?

 

I can understand people's behaviour. In this warm dry weather the chances of catching it outside while on the move must be quite small.

Maybe a different risk come the autumn and winter if it's still around and we all do the 2 mph walk from the Rookery alongside the SEJ stand, packed together in a fug of damp mist and smoke. The good news is we may well have a vaccine by then

 

Can anyone one with better google skills that mine point me towards the weather for London in May/June 1918 when the second, really deadly, flu strain 'hit'...

 

No. Do you really need numbers? We have some idea of the ratios of people at different age groups who die. Surely those badly affected would be similar?

In any case it comes down to what you call 'plenty'. Hundreds to me is plenty. Do you doubt hundreds of U65 long term recoveries?

It would be helpful if you added your corollaries rather than leave it to others to guess.

 

Ask someone who was there, Topsy maybe.

 

It's similar where I live. All the parks and open spaces are full of groups and families that seem to be socially distancing pretty well.

I think that some of the lack of social distancing when walking around is people simply forgetting to do it. As things begin to return to "normal", I think that is understandable.

From what I understand, transmission when passing people outside is pretty unlikely. It's probably far more important that people continue to sit apart and also observe strict social distancing when in shops etc.

The stats over the next few weeks are going to be crucial in determining what happens next.

 

The problem with big crowds at beaches and parks is not really outside. It's when everyone needs the toilet or some other such bottleneck. But there is a good chance that the UK holiday season can be lively, albeit not so good as usual for cafes, entertainments and amusement arcades.

 

Well, frankly, ‘plenty’ might not be much of a problem. I’d be interested to know what proportion of those hospitalised have ended up needing this rehabilitation so far. If it was almost all or most then we have a problem. I suspect it’s largely a cohort of people who already require a lot of NHS intervention anyway.

 

Obviously lots we still don’t know about the virus, it’s a real puzzle still, but I’m inclined to think they know more about it than is perhaps let on. Isn’t the app based on 15 minutes of close contact? I can appreciate why the time might be set that high, but equally it does suggest walking within 2m of somebody very fleetingly is probably a very low to non existent risk.

 

Not much of a problem to who?

You’ve never seemed to progress beyond this notion of the ones who would have got something anyway would have got something anyway and the others who got something are merely statistical outliers.

Hey presto, there was never a problem.

 

Very long, and sobering, read from the frontline by the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2...rs-dispatches-from-intensive-care#maincontent

 

I don't know if it is my general state of mind at the moment, but that had me in floods.

 

Not much of a problem for us all. You know, the country as a whole. Good policy and learning will come out of looking at how this affects everyone, not just Brian aged 69 from wherever Sky found him.

If we’ve suddenly got tens of thousands of people needing intensive rehabilitation it’s a big problem given our adult social care setup is already in dire need of modernisation. If it’s a few hundred people, especially those who might otherwise have been receiving significant NHS treatment or support for other ailments, it’s logically not such an issue. I suspect it’ll be somewhere in between. In any case, it needs to be funded properly and provide world class care - nothing I’m saying should be taken as support for doing otherwise.

You in turn have never seemed to progress beyond the notion of us all being in it together, that the risk must be the same and we must all behave and respond identically. And anyone who tries to put the risk - of catching Covid, of death, of hospitalisation, of needing ongoing rehabilitation, whatever really - into context is a problem.

 

Very sad indeed.

It is a pity this former journalist and political activist (against the Tory government) decided to use some poor souls death for political point scoring. We could have heard the story of Winston, Dr Clarke, and it would have been even more moving and hard hitting if it had just been more factual than political.