Watford Fc 1-1 Newcastle United - 25/09/2021

Discussion in 'Match Day' started by reids, Sep 19, 2021.

  1. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Saturday sees us take on Steve Bruce's Newcastle and it's safe to say that they haven't had the best of starts to the season with just 2 points gained out of a possible 15, despite playing some very winnable games.


    Their 5 goals in 5 games isn't a terrible record in attack, but the 13 goals conceded isn't great! It's not just goals conceded either with Newcastle not faring too well in xG conceded either.


    Bruce has opted for a defensive strategy in their games so far this season, often with a 5 at the back with Jacob Murphy (or Manquillo) and Matt Richie as wing-backs - both who often venture forward quite frequently which will hopefully leave a lot of space for our wingers to attack, pace will be key so I'd have Sarr (obviously) and Dennis starting in these positions. This is backed up by looking at where they concede their open play shots, I've circled 2 areas that looked interesting in this regard, they conceded a good amount of chances from these wide areas and watching the videos of their goals conceded so far a fair few of the goals conceded started in these areas as well (but won't show up in the shot map) - but they mostly defend the penalty area well with not many chances conceded around the 6-yard area


    There's also a chance for us to have plenty of the ball as from the graph below we can see that Newcastle don't really press or defend too much, allowing 13 passes per defensive action (tackle, interception, foul), although we're also up there in terms of that, although we pressed much more against Norwich (with 8.85 PPDA compared to our 12.71 PPDA for the rest of the season) - with a good chance of getting a result I'd expect us to continue pressing slightly more.


    In attack they haven't done too badly in terms of xG, in fact even slightly outscoring us in that regard.


    Being below average in terms of xG isn't a surprise when you take a look at their open-play shot-map with few chances created around the 6-yard area


    Looking at this rather messy pass map (yellow is a pass failure, red is a successful pass) below it's clear that they focus on attacking down the wings rather than from the middle of the park which they seem to bypass altogether, if Kiko is out injured it wouldn't surprise me to see Cathcart back at RB to ensure we're covered defensively. I also feel this is a game that could suit one of Louza or Tufan skillsets so wouldn't be too surprised if one of them starts.


    The Geordies always provide entertainment (see below), although not necessarily on the pitch so hopefully Saturday can also provide us some entertainment, preferably with us coming out of the game with an important 3 points!

    reg_varney, W4BS, EB Hornet and 28 others like this.
  2. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    Now this is the kind of preview I like to see - fascinating, thanks reids.
    Happy bunny, bedmond_hornet and reids like this.
  3. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    I thought that red and yellow thing was a Gray and Success trying to sign a new Watford contract :D

    Great preview @reids and thanks for taking the slot for it. Newcastle are a funny one. They have one of the most passionate and patient supporters in England, fill out almost all their allocation in every game be it home or away, and have to contend with
    the slop that Steve Bruce serves up under the watchful gaze of Mike Ashley. Most Newcastle fans' I have met seem a decent sort and win or lose on the day always want a bit of a banter. How we set up for this one would most likely be identical to Norwich I would assume. As Mr. Glass Kiko is bound to be out (again), we will lose his linkup play with Sarr. I just hope we can do what is expected of us and pick up another three points.

    Only Newcastle player that looks overly threatening is Saint Maximum. Quality player on his day but blows more cold than hot. If we set up right, come out attacking and press well we should have enough. Like Norwich our record against this lot is pretty good - beating them three times consistently before losing that run in a awful loss at their place in the season we went down. I would start King, Louza and even Tufan. Cleverley is worth a shout to. As for the GK. Foster did little wrong at the weekend and pending Bachmann's fitness I would be happy for him to keep the gloves.

    Watford 2 Newcastle 0
  4. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Must win game. Can't stress that enough.
  5. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    Realistically, we have to hope chiefly that Callum Wilson remains out, and doesn't make it back from injury for this fixture.

    I too would like to see Foster retain his place, and us continue with not fannying about with the 'let's force WTE to have the ball under pressure every single time and see what minute he makes a catastrophic mistake as a result' minigame the coaching staff have loved up until this weekend. Add the extra pressing to that, which frankly seems like a prerequisite for modern top-level football, and we might have a chance to exploit the toxicity around Brucey and his boys.
  6. I Blame Bassett

    I Blame Bassett Squad Player

    Fans who hit horses with a fat owner.
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  7. MIlton Dammers

    MIlton Dammers Reservist

    Win this & we go above Spurs in the table. For 24 hours at least.

    Just thought I'd mention it.
    Knight GT and SkylaRose like this.
  8. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    If anyone else watches "The Kick Off" with the True Geordie podcast you will know just what being a Newcastle fan must feel like right now. One of my fave Youtube channels and a cracking bloke with some good banter. I expect him
    to be having a lot to say about the game before and after. If anyone has never heard of him, I highly encourage you to check him out.
  9. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    Skyla, wut?! I'm quite surprised; True Geordie is a clout-chasing bawbag full of hot air who can't stop sucking off Logan Paul!
  10. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Watford 4-0 Newcastle

    MOTM: Super Tom!
    Chumlax likes this.
  11. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    That beautiful example of abstract art should be a permanent addition to the Tate Modern collection.
  12. foxywfc

    foxywfc Reservist

    Great preview reids. Make sure you forward it to Xisco by Wednesday morning give him something to digest after Stoke.
    Can see Xisco sticking with his winning team again unless forced to make changes.
    Must win end of

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Dr. Roland and reids like this.
  13. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Reservist

    Thanks mate.

    I didn't understand any of them pictures but I do like the pretty colours.
  14. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Reservist

    A whip is more usual.
    Forzainglese likes this.
  15. LouOrns

    LouOrns First Year Pro

    Genuinely the worst football show I’ve ever watched
    GoingDown likes this.
  16. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    That photo of the Geordie and the police horse has really tickled me!
    Hogg-DEENEY!!! likes this.
  17. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    I too would like to win this one.
    Hogg-DEENEY!!! and UEA_Hornet like this.
  18. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    If we can't beat a side managed by Steve Bruce we may as well just pack up and play a different sport.

    We've got a very good recent record against Newcastle. Over the last 11 meetings, we've won 7 drew 3 lost just the once. In fact our home record against them is pretty impressive. Only losing once since 1991.

    This one is another occasion where we should win and I suspect we have to win in order to convince people we have a chance of survival.

    When we beat Norwich, it was a yardstick. It confirmed what I suspected, in that we have improved as a team since the Championship, but Norwich have not. There was a gulf in class between the sides on Saturday, whereas last season I thought we had the edge, but it was close.

    Now, that's confirmation we've improved, but is it enough? Against Wolves, a side who have lost 4 out of 5 and not scoring a single goal in the process, they beat us comfortably at VR. This is the gap we need to bridge if we are to stay up. Newcastle will be another pointer, as I see them in the bottom three (or very close to it). We just have to beat a side like this if we are going to stay up.

    I see the strugglers being Norwich, Burnley, Newcastle and us. It might be as tight as that. I had Brentford in that group, but they maybe the surprise package, a bit like Sheff Utd were in their first season. Brighton have virtually ensured their safety, with a third of their survival points total already secured. The only other side I can see who maybe down there are Palace, but I think they'll have enough to stay out of trouble. Wolves, Southampton and Leeds are also down there, but again, I see them having enough to avoid the relegation scrap.
  19. Forzainglese

    Forzainglese Reservist

    Brighton may well finish in the top half of the table. They are very difficult to beat but have always struggled to score enough goals. They seem to have rectified that to an extent and so I don't see them as relegation candidates.
  20. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Toon Army cliché bingo!
  21. reids

    reids Squad Player

    It's a classic!
  22. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Failed to mention huge bellied, shirtless supporters with man baps out in mid-January.
    Hogg-DEENEY!!! likes this.
  23. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Cobblers. I interact with a group of over 100 of 'em every day and in my all my many years I have yet to meet a more reactionary, living in the past, entitled yet deluded fanbase. In their natural habitat of 'The Toon' they're frequently a very nasty bunch too.
    a19tgg likes this.
  24. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    Great preview @reids, didn't understand most of it but looks great. The one noticeable difference between Wolves and Norwich performance was it was far more together. Wolves we looked like strangers which is not greatly surprising considering the changes to the squad but Norwich there seemed to be a far better understanding. As others have said, these are the kind of games we need to win if we are to stay up and if we do, 9 points from the opening six games will be a very decent start. Not sure what happened to Kiko on Saturday and where The Bloke from Chile was but would like to see both back in the side Saturday. Keep Foster in goal just for his ability to come and take crosses and command his area.
  25. MIlton Dammers

    MIlton Dammers Reservist

    He must be a Blazing Saddles fan

    (who isn't?)

    Knight GT and Forzainglese like this.
  26. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Player for player, Newcastle aren't that bad, but they're managed by probably the worst manager in the league so really they are a team we need to be aiming to finish above. Apart from Norwich and possibly Brentford (although they've made a good start!), it's tough to see any other teams we could be looking to finish ahead of, Saints look alright, Armstrong has adapted better to the division than I thought he would, Burnley despite not picking up results this season have been playing fine, and the Stripey Nigels seem to be finding their feet
  27. MIlton Dammers

    MIlton Dammers Reservist

    You might be right, but it's early days. I wouldn't mind betting that a few sides that have made a decent start will struggle later on. I think we'll improve as our new squad get to know each other better. We do need to cut down on the defensive errors though.
  28. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    You're right, and Brentford could be prime candidates for that, like a Huddersfield, Hull or Blackpool (don't get me wrong, I think they're better than all three of those teams, but the division is also a lot stronger now). Wouldn't shock me if Leeds have a second season syndrome (though it would be surprising), Wolves should be fine, despite not scoring in 4 out of 5 games, they've played better than their results suggest in general
  29. lutonh8a

    lutonh8a Reservist

    Double up on Saint Maximum and take it in turns fouling him if he is looking dangerous and I think we win this one.
  30. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

  31. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

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  32. MIlton Dammers

    MIlton Dammers Reservist

    Otter, K9 Hornet and wfc4ever like this.
  33. RS2

    RS2 Reservist

    Win this and we're safe.
  34. I’m sorry but what’s all that **** in the preview? Tactics ? Weaknesses? Strategy ?
    Where are the photos of landmarks, celebrity goss, and general p1sstakery? Have I logged onto the wrong forum in error ?

    Well victory in Saturday’s 9 pointer leads us to this 12 pointer. Win and we are as good as safe.
    Must win game.
    WFC 0 (Sarr missed pen) Toon 2 (Glass, Drysdale).
  35. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    We need to make sure we give Mike Williamson a hearty chorus of boos when he's on the ball at the weekend

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