Probably wishful thinking, though the public criticism appears very unusual. Putin is said to have a very large Presidential Guard, an army in itself. Any coup would have to be very deeply seated within his own elite. Unlikely we are there yet. And even though the Russian Army is on the run, Russia has the armaments to simply flatten Kharkiv and Kherson if it chooses, like it did to Mariupol and before then, to Grozny. So this war may have a long way to go yet.
Reports UA 7km from border. Belgorod is well within range of Ukrainian artillery; it will at least give them the chance to neutralise the Russian units shelling Kharkiv.
Appears the Russian anger and jealousy about NATO sending Ukraine masses of weapons, vehicles and ammunition has been overcome by them leaving countless of all of the above for the Ukrainians in their wake during their ‘tactical withdrawal’.
Tone of Russian TV discussion programmes (basically 90% of Russain TV programming) beginning to change: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720 Well worth checking out Julia Davis's thread for other TV highlights.
This must all be with the tacit approval of the Kremlin though. Presumably an effort to drive up support for a general mobilisation / conscription of Russian men to become cannon fodder soldiers?
Yes, they work from the Dominic Cummings school of how to drive the behaviours they want. So this can easily be used to drive a ‘no more Mr Nice Guy’ approach, that they have been too liberal on the ‘Nazi Regime’. Nevetheless Nadezhdin may be best to avoid high buildings with windows.
An issue is materiel - what will they fight with. The only well-equipped force they have left is the Росгвардия - I can't see them operating outside of Russia's borders as they're Putin's Praetorian Guard.
You're right about the general lack of equipment for those on the frontline, but then that doesn't seem to have stopped them prosecuting their war so far. Their aim was a 3 day blitz and back in Moscow in time for vokda, not a protracted campaign. There was a picture of two poor saps lying prone on the floor after being captured by the Ukrainians on Twitter the other day and the accompanying joke was they looked like they'd been deployed from 1943. Tin hats, antiquated (and almost certainly completely ineffective) body armour and Soviet-era green clothing. Farcical to be deploying soldiers like that in 21st century combat, let alone against an opponent which is steadily integrating more sophisticated kit into its operations as every week goes by.
I would say that the lack of achieving this objective has had less to do with the the Ukrainians fighting abilities and more to do with the Russians appalling supply chains (logistics) and their clapped out vehicles (poor designs* and a complete lack of maintenance). Take their 'feared' amphibious APC: the BTR family of vehicles. The latest iteration of it the BTR90 was so 'awesome' that the Russian MOD refused to buy it. It's much vaunted replacement, the Boomerang, has only been seen in numbers on Moscow military parades. This has meant that the invasion has been heavily reliant on the 'venerable' BTR80 which are littering many Ukrainian roads (and rivers) the majority have been abandoned as they had broken down. To make up for this short-fall in mobility (the key Russian military tactic) the Russians have pressed into service the 'ancient' BTR70 which were originally given as a show of support to the Luhansk and Donetsk 'Republics' militias. These were replaced by the BTR60 'museum pieces'. A similar story can be told for their tanks and SP artillery. *A lot of ITK people are pointing out that the Russian military has, so far, only gone to toe-to-toe with insurgency forces (Chechen, Syria etc) and this is the first time they have fought a near-peer enemy (who've very quickly excelled them in terms of modern kit).
Couple this with the fact the Russian military is kept corrupt/incompetent by design (it's very hard to threaten the ruling party that way) and you have a recipe for disaster. Ukraine's military was "organized" in a similar fashion back when Crimea was annexed, but they've spent the years since then modernizing their military infrastructure and command with Western assistance.
Oooof..............Completely unverified news: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569683217766031360
Forming "The Kyiv Security Compact" with some 'hefty' names guaranteeing it... https://www.president.gov.ua/storag...fd0ec2d72259a561313370cee1be6e_1663050954.pdf
The used to be called штрафбат (Shtrafbat*): Wagner Group: Head of Russian mercenary group filmed recruiting in prison *Well worth keep an eye out for this in the various £1 shops. It's a cracking Russian TV series - a 'load' of these were sold to the chinese wholesaler who mainly deals with the UK bargain shops.
All the pro Ukraine\Azov\Nazi sympathisers had better hope that the West\Nato win this scrap Gonna take a whole lot of social media deleting if it goes the other way .
Why? Why does the existence (or former existence as they have been pretty much wiped out) of one dodgy battalion of fascists mean that it’s ok for Russian fascists (with similar nationalist views) to kill 10s of thousands of not fascist civilians? Until you can answer that, no deletions necessary. There is only one answer here and that’s Russia to go home. Otherwise they will be driven out and it will be very ugly indeed.
Because , as you well know, the victors , in any conflict, write the history. Win the war ? You are the good guys Lose the war , you are the bad guys. Who doesn't know this ?
Ukraine doesn’t have to justify its status as the ‘good guys’ any more than Iraq did. And civilians in both countries also don’t have to justify anything. We didn’t like the Iraqi leadership, they were fascists and mass murderers, but it’s a road to hell trying to sort out other countries’ problems. In this case, most of Ukraine’s problems, civil war, nationalism, political corruption are caused by or exacerbated by Russia for its own interests. They could never ‘sort’ the Ukrainian Civil War, only make it worse.
More ill-informed nonsense: Bloke doesn't realise that parts of South Bedfordshire (joy upon joy - my firefox autocorrect is suggesting that should be "Hertfordshire") are already a Martian Desert. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1571712271063072773
Putin’s delayed speech now due tomorrow morning at nine. Providing he hasn’t exited a window by then, he is likely to announce full mobilisation and a set of referenda in the breakaway republics. Oh is that a gun? Yes, I’d very much like to join the Russian Federation. Thank you. Mobilisation sounds rather grand, but as well as being likely to precipitate huge middle class opposition, it’s a logistical challenge. Thread. https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1572270599535214598?s=46&t=s3FaRdGSFWpe9YkwB-woHQ
He's giving his address as I type this but this was the groundwork: Russian Lawmakers Approve Long Jail Terms for Military Surrender, Refusal to Serve
I wonder if his speech was pulled because he wanted to go for full mobilisation but, for the reasons outlined in that thread, was told that it is impossible. The "partial" mobilisation, concentrating on Russians with military experience or "specialist" skills, gets around some of the issues the thread raises. It would be very significant if he has been "overruled" on the full mobilisation option. Perhaps his power is dwindling? We can only hope.
Seeing that they've been sending fresh meat to the grinder in 60 years old vehicles (literally museum pieces) and sending instructors to fight on the front line it's going to be very interesting to see what these 300K reservists are going to do. Also I wonder how many of these reservists reside in Shytkickistan?
With nuclear war now all but certain, I sure am received there is a NATO HQ about 3 miles from Watford.
