April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 2

Perspective I suppose.

 

Also it seems clear that 2nd message from yesterday and 1st message from today are the same, therefore 1st message yesterday and 2nd message today are from same person.

It seems to me that the second message today was the seer responding to us asking for more clarity. The Wolf went first and therefore unable to copy the Seers style this time and therefore unable to replicate the clearer style.

That would mean that Nisman is tinker.

 

How are you able to conclude that the 2nd message today is the Seer? It could just be the wolf writing with more clarity.

 

Like I say, because the message is responding to our requests for more clarity. If it was the seer going first the wolf would have copied the new clearer style.

 

The person who went first today, assuming they were the person who went 2nd yesterday and wrote the poem both times, also wrote with more clarity today than yesterday in more explicitly naming you and then naming Horace today without any riddles.

It still doesn't make sense to me. It also seems a rather odd narrative for you to be pushing, as it would mean by your reasoning that the person who named you "good" is actually the wolf, meaning you'll be more under suspicion again as possibly being evil.

 

He didnt specifically name me, he implied me with a riddle. Thats not clarity at all.

Like Gags said, its slightly suspicious that you accidentally voted for yourself yesterday. Sort of thing the Traitor might do.

 

If LR was the traitor, he'd have known Nisman wasnt evil and gleefully piled on, surely.

 

Never have been a traitor, what is the extent of his knowledge in the game?

Does he know who is what?

 

They are clearly the same person, logically they have to be. One person explicitly claims to have written Day 1, Message 1 and Day 2, Message 2.

The other person wrote a poem both days and claims to have viewed BRLR yesterday.

We don't know anything for certain other than there are two clear pairs of messages.

 

For me the Day 2 Message 2 is the Seer responding to requests for more clarity. This could be an elaborate ruse by the Wolf but far less likely because it is in his interests to create confusion, whereas the Seer wants clarity.

Who this means to lynch today I dont know ?

 

I think the alpha is an experienced player.

1. they’ve avoided a few common alpha mistakes made on the first couple days of play, and have given nothing away.

2. I can see the beta trying to take out an experienced, active player on day 1.

My sense is that message 2 today is from the seer.

This puts us at a disadvantage, as the seer is likely to be an inexperienced player.

 

Makes a lot of sense. Only drew attention to themselves when there was no need.

 

The traitor knows who the wolves are.

 

I'm leaning that way too. That would obviously then mean that the Wolf named you as Good on the first day with their clue in the poem. Nothing to really read into that though, as that would have been just a punt as they would've had no idea who anyone was.

 

With nothing to go on, it's either a random guess or choose an inactive player as they would be killed off anyway. Are there any inactives? If so, let's @ them to give them a fair chance to play.

 

I'd say we go with none of the 3 already named - me, gags or brlr. Don't rule us all out but more of a chance at least 2 of us are good.

Reduces the odds quite a lot of getting one of the 3 evil.

 

For the second werewolf game in a row Squibba has been contributing little - posted late yesterday and added nothing, and still hasn't posted again today.

 

And he was good last game so can't read anything into that.

 

I'm not, I'm just pointing out that it wouldn't matter so much if he was out the game.

 

@Squibba - please let us know if you're evil?

No pressure, but will make our lives a lot easier if you are.

 

Lol, very selfless to suggest not lynching yourself!

 

In fairness to @Squibba it is still only mid afternoon. If he hasn't popped up with an hour or so to go, then he'd move into the firing line but people do sometimes have busy days/jobs so I wouldn't start the voting for him too early.

 

I also think the second message today is from the seer, but I don't think your logic holds up.

If the wolf changes style, it reveals which message was made by the wolf on day 1. As it currently stands, the wolf hasn't given anything away

 

True, but for me the second post today was more likely the seer because he was responding to our requests for clarity.

Yes this could be a bluff by Wolfie but without much else to go on its seems reasonably logical.

 

My bad guys.

I’ll be honest, quite embarrassed no work just overslept.

Catching up now!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

A thought: What does the wolf gain by posting first today? Why not wait for the seer to post and then follow up?

 

I think the wolf struggled to copy the Seer's style of messaging

 

I'm all on board for the wolf to post second every day. Would make it a lot easier to tell which message is from the wolf.

 

I'm surprised how many are guessing the second message is the Seer, given how slim the odds are that they managed to pick the Tinker in the first round.

Whichever it is though, it doesn't particularly help who to vote for today.

 

Has the wolf thrown everyone into confusion? Pretty much, so mission accomplished by posting first.

But if you want to go by posting trends, Norniron and Horace (and Squibba) didn't become active til after the 2nd message. Not throwing accusations, just stating facts.

 

I'm still leaning towards Squibba, sure they've posted now, but they were the last to post yesterday because they "forgot" and they were the last to post today because they "overslept".

True or not, it hardly indicates much engagement with the game and so it would be no loss to be rid of them given the lack of much else to go on.