April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 2

I am personally convinced that the poems are from the Seer and that the message naming Nisman yesterday was from the wolf. I think we would have gone for Nisman on day 1, based on him being named as evil in 1 of 2 messages.

The alternative is the 1 in 17 shot that the Seer viewed the tinker, and your point about Diamond taking the Fool out of the game, also suggests that wasn't the case.

I stand by my comments that the seer has been poor so far. Not naming anyone explicitly yesterday, writing rubbish poems, mentioning Nisman today (having not viewed him) and not viewing Nisman yesterday, to provide a useful viewing on Day 1. Either confirming Nisman as evil or giving a counterpoint to the evil message would have been useful. A riddle about BRLR was not.

 

Yes, basically the 2nd tinker has been removed.

 

Not sure I agree. Sounds to me like someone trying to write in the same style but not quite pulling it off.

 

Out of interest, if a Mason gets bumped off are they described as anything other than Good in the write up?

 

Quite possibly

 

Anonymous Message: Received 11.09

Friends,

I would like to respond to your requests to make this message less cryptic.

Yesterday my message was the first message.
I viewed Nisman and was told he was Evil. He must therefore be the Tinker.

At a later date I may explain the cryptic clue as a way of confirming my identity and linking my messages back so you can see the line of truth.

For now the clue in linking my message back to yesterday is in the STAMP of TIME.

And now I will continue with my primary role as Seer, which the wolf failed to do yesterday, and give you clear indication of who I have viewed.

I have viewed HornetGags and he is good.

 

Would Alpha Wolf try and throw us off the scent of the Beta Wolf this early on by calling them out as good?

 

Both this second message today and the first message yesterday were sent at 11.09.

This isn't stonewall proof that they're by the same person though.

 

Doubt they'd mention them.

It would only cast the spotlight their way.

 

I’m afraid I don’t buy the whole nisman is a tinker line.

Hear me out. If nisman was a tinker then theoretically him dying is not that big of a loss to us. It’s one less player for the seer to view as evil. Why would diamond then remove the role of fool after one day? Surely that tilts the odds too much in our favour.

I’m therefore of the opinion that the first message today and the second yesterday were the seer. The second message today is the wolf.

thoughts?

 

no also the alpha doesn’t know the betas role at the moment....only the beta wolf knows the alpha wolf right?

that’s how i read the start of day message.

 

Ah ha! So we are left with two clear pairs of messages. The question now is which pair to believe...

 

Diamond made it quite clear that he removed the Fool because Grrwood died through inactivity. Not sure how that links up to your theory that Nisman isnt the Tinker.

 

I really need to read the rules properly.

 

Message 1 yesterday

Message 2 yesterday:

Message 1 Today:

Message 2 Today:

 

The author of Message 2 today claims to have written Message 1 yesterday, and the author of Message 1 claims to have written Message 2.

Now... let's apply some logic here.

If Message 2 yesterday and Message 1 today were the Seer, the Wolf would've caused maximum confusion by writing a crap poem as Message 2 in the same style and naming a random villager as Evil. There would be little benefit in doubling down on the "Nisman was a tinker" line as that was relatively low probability and people were already doubting it.

I am therefore leaning towards the first message yesterday and second today being the genuine Seer.

 

I am still convinced that the poems are the seer and the others are the wolf. It's statistically more likely that the wolf would mislead with a claimed "evil" naming early on and also unlikely that they would have viewed the tinker.

Having said that, none of it helps us decide who to lynch today, other than, if I'm right, it should be anyone apart from Ross and Horace.

Hornetgags being named as good by a supposed wolf tells us little at this stage IMO.

 

3 people named good and at least 1 of those must have been named by the wolf.

Random choice(s) by the wolf? Or perhaps alpha has a fair inkling who beta is.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

 

But why would the wolf double down on the Nisman thing today? They could easily have said they viewed BRLR yesterday and then we'd really be struggling to work out who was who.

 

The alpha doesn't know the identity of the Beta.

 

Because if they go straight for another evil naming, they might win today, but their messages will be easily disregarded in the future and therefore one of their main weapons neutralised.

They are still trying to remain credible. Maybe they also felt that they had persuaded us all already that the terrible poetry was from a wolf and thought that by maintaining their credibility, they could throw us another false evil tomorrow or the next day.

 

That would only make sense if you presumed that they would never change their messaging style. They would've had a free hit today with the Seer going first.

 

Even if so, why name the Beta as good - typically this just puts someone in the spotlight, especially early doors in a game. Surely a wolf would just name a person at random, having already seen us Lynch a good character.

Unlikely that a wolf would just ID people as good every day though. That would be wasteful.

 

But the message senders both claimed consistency with the corresponding message from yesterday. If the wolf has copied a style and deceived us, then so has the seer.

 

2nd message is definitely from the Seer.

Which means, tonight I die either from lynching or by wolf as we have no Guardian.

 

Errrrmmmm... No, they clearly haven't copied each other's styles!

*If* the first message today and second yesterday was the genuine Seer, then the wolf had a big advantage. They could copy that style, claim to have viewed BRLR and we'd have no idea who was who. But they chose not to, preferring to make it abundantly clear that there are two sets of messages.

 

Yeah, but the wolf didn't do that. Why post first if that was the case? Why not wait today and post second and mirror the style.

Whatever the reasons, and whichever way around you think the messages are, the wolf didn't do so. Only they know why, but it doesn't mean anything significant in my view.

 

Perhaps Diamond decided it was a bit overkill to have no guardian, two tinkers and at least one wolf knowing the identity of the other? T'would have been a bloodbath.

 

Because I am good.

Either way it's an accurate description.

 

That doesn't make the message saying you're good to be from the seer though.

I'm sure you know that.

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I'd like to hope they were. If the other messages are the seer then they're really not helping changing style so dramatically.

 

The change of style is irrelevant (plus everyone asked them to do that yesterday!) as we know for certain what the two pairs of messages are.

 

So you think you'll deduce it's a message from the wolf, then what?

You decide if I'm good or evil?

How did that work out for Nisman?

The timestamp is the only consistency in the messages.

Some people might justify it as the Tinker but I'm not convinced, there's no evidence to suggest it.

EDIT: Oops I didn't read the message properly - ok I retract...it could have been the tinker.

Now I'm even more confused.

 

If the second message today is the seer, its certainly not helping with these 'clues'.
Equally, if the time stamp thing was meant to be difficult, it was rather obvious. Why would the seer be attempting to be mysterious when putting a suggested good player in the firing line?