Today’s results show how valuable the good work Gracia did to stabilise us when he first arrived should prove to be.
Predictions I know but I think we have a decent chance of beating Newcastle. Their good run is over and they’ve lost their last two without scoring. They look ‘on the beach’ already. Kenedy might have something to prove though. Spurs could be flat after being knocked out the cup, while United have a final to prepare for. Stranger things have happened!
Quite. I can't really understand the people that keep posting that we won't get another point. Ok, fair enough to think that about the two away games, but Newcastle at home?! By any reading of the season so far, we should be expecting at least a point in that game, only people determined to be miserable could see that as a certain defeat.
The bookies clearly see that we're doomed after today's results. Our odds to be relegated have been slashed from 150/1 to...errr... 500/1.
It won’t stop the jellies discussing us going down at length for a week especially when we lose 3-0 on Monday!
Fair enough but if we go down all the players you hate will be off like a shot. Except Zeegelaar who nobody will want.
If they draw or even if one of them beats the other, they would still both finish above us if all the other games go their way and we do not pick up anymore points As Southampton would have a better GD than us even if they lost to Swansea unless it was a thrashing, even then our current GD would be a lot worse than it is now because we would have the goals against from 3 more defeats.
At the end of the day I think we will survive, but I also think it will be a much closer thing than many of you on here think it will be. Huddersfield are now my favourites for the third team to finish below us, as they would need at least 4 points from their last 3 games as they have a much worse GD than us, and I think that is very unlikely with the teams they have left to play.
I'm concerned for Watford, as we ARE still at risk, but the risk is small. There would have to be a lot of things to go against us for Watford to get relegated now. I believed Southampton would pull out of it, and this seems to be panning out. I think they will stay up. So, if I rule out Southampton, who will go down? Brighton are only 1 point behind us, but they have a ridiculous run in. Man City (a), Man Utd (h ), Liverpool (a). I cannot see them getting any more points, but football can throw up the unexpected. A 1 point margin over 3 games is far too slender. Huddersfield are 3 points behind us, but like Brighton, they have a ridiculously hard final three games. Chelsea (a), Man City (a), Arsenal (h ). They are 11 goals worse off than us, so it would appear they would need 4 points to overtake us. I can make a case for them beating Arsenal, but a point from the other two seems a little fictional to me. Swansea. They are 5 points behind us, although their run in is not quite so difficult on paper. Southampton (h ), Bournemouth (a), Stoke (h ). Assuming that Southampton do beat them, which is what I'm predicting, then they would need to win they other two to overtake us. It's entirely possible though, but is another team that needs to be perfect in their last two matches. Southampton are 6 points behind us. Providing they beat Swansea, that would mean they would only need to win one more game to overtake us, as their GD would be better. Everton (a) and Man City (h ). Both sides have nothing to play for, so it makes them vulnerable to defeat. I think Southampton could well take 3 points from one of these games. West Ham are the only other side in the equation. They are 3 points behind. Man City (h ), Man Utd (h ), Leicester (a), Everton (h ). Three of their final 4 are at home, and I think there's enough for them to pick up a win. They could take a couple of potential big defeats though and that could be crucial as our GD is similar. So, looking at this now, trying to be objective, then I think West Ham and Southampton will finish above us, but we will finish higher than Huddersfield, Brighton and Swansea, thus not going down. However, I've not written off our chances of beating Newcastle at home. If we get our **** together for this match, it's one we certainly could either win or draw. If we win it, we will finish higher than Southampton and West Ham as well. The only nervy thing is, if we do lose our next two, then almost certainly we'll be going to Old Trafford with a mathematical chance of being relegated.
If Southampton and Swansea win next and we don't get anything I think. Even if we lost and they both drew they wouldn't be able to both catch us.
There's no point over-thinking this as there are too many variables. It's very unlikely we will go down but not impossible. Like everyone on this forum I will be worrying if relegation is still possible on the last day, but not before then. Life's too short !!
Exactly. However I think all these permutations will just fly out the window tomorrow night after we beat the Spuds...
How on earth can you rule out Southampton? They’ve won one game - just one, and are still in the bottom three. It’s statements like this that cause other posters to question you all the time. Also, apparently Man City have nothing to play for when they play them, but are likely to beat both Huddersfield and Brighton. Ehh?
Just did the calculator again - I think Southampton will go - a draw v Swansea A, a draw v Everton A and a loss to Man C would be my prediction, going down on 34 points. Man C will want to become centurions and will need to win all their games to achieve it. They didn't hold back against Swansea when already champions.
A lot of posters are saying if this team wins and that team wins, remember all games start off as draws, some of them will end up as draws, no way will we be caught by all bar West Brom and Stoke! That's why we are 500-1 to go down! Plus whilst our results haven't been good lately we haven't been playing that badly that we won't pick some points up!
This is like a reprise of last season. We all know that we are not yet mathematically safe but we will NOT go down. To say you are concerned when the chances are about 10,000 to 1 is a bit crazy. The combination of events to relegate us just is not going to happen. Like last year though I can see us ending up anywhere between about 11th and 17th.
It's my opinion. You don't seem to have an understanding of trends in football, which is fine. Look at West Brom, they'd won only 3 all season, yet go to places like Old Trafford and St James's Park and win. So previous form means absolutely nothing when it comes to the final run-in. When the penny drops and players realise they have no more chances to put it right, they often improve performances. This is what I believe will be happen to Southampton. A win breeds confidence and builds momentum. You can dismiss this as much as you like, but it does happen, and happens often. What I'm saying, if you care to read it, instead of making general assumptions, is that one side can put a run together, but several sides doing it, at the same time, is unlikely. This is what I've based my hypothesise on and why I believe Watford will stay up......unless of course you're taking issue with my belief we will stay up? I thought people on here would have the intelligence to work that out, but looking at the swam of posts I've read ridiculing it, clearly not.
It's my opinion. If it creates debate, all the better. This is what a forum is for. I thought the post I wrote was well balanced, taking Southampton as an example of a team that would pull away from danger. I highlighted one team could do this, but not all, and the conclusion is that Watford would be safe. Exactly what is wrong with saying this? I just don't get it. Only the cynically minded, like yourself, would spin it another way.
I think it was your words that made people question you hb1. You said you were concerned because we were still at risk - if only a small one. But that does not really measure the risk. The risk is tiny - not small - and to be concerned you must feel it is possible. You correctly say that in the last few games previous form can be turned over. However your concern is based on EVERY other team going against form and winning or drawing exactly the remote combination that sends us down - while denying that Watford too could defy form. It is mathematically possible. But to be concerned you should worry first about being struck by lightning, killed in an air crash or getting run over as these are all far more probable and means you wont be there to see your near impossible mathematical chance come about.
But I've not said this, I've said the complete opposite You made an assumption, based on some urban myth of HB1. What does concern me is going to the final game, not being mathematically safe. For me, that would be very poor for Watford to get into that position. This is my concern, rather than actual relegation which I think is unlikely.
But winning one match doesn’t make for a trend, does it? You may be correct that they are on an upward curve but to exclude them altogether from the clubs you are analysing because you think they will be OK seems to rest far, far too much on one narrow victory (over a team who you claim have nothing to play for (and who have an identical record to us)).
I will try one more time to explain this. It's a prediction, I've shown even if Southampton do get out of trouble, we are still unlikely to go down, as the probability all the others will do the same is unlikely. I've not said one win is a trend, that's just something you've said. I've said football is full of trends, where teams who face almost certain relegation find form from nowhere. Previous results mean nothing, as they tend to go into a sequence of results which is out-of-character to the rest of the season. I've already mentioned West Brom as an example of this. Their last 3 games they've picked up 7 points from Man Utd (a), Liverpool (h ) and Newcastle (a). Before this they had won only 3 all season. Who would have predicted Stoke getting a point at Anfield? I don't understand why people can't grasp that concept.
