Mark Lawrenson

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by NW Orn, Sep 18, 2015.

  1. Nnnn

    Nnnn First Team

    we don't get paid for making **** predictions though
     
  2. Stevohorn

    Stevohorn Watching Grass Grow

    Ah yes the response i was expecting. Well thank god for that as we'd have been sacked ages ago!


    Shouldnt our knowledge of the club supersede that though? (as we are always saying he knows nothing about Watford)
     
  3. Nnnn

    Nnnn First Team

    Our predictions are obviously skewed by our fan's bias & optimism. He should not have that excuse
     
  4. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I agree with Nnnn, furthermore if Lawro was doing his predictions pro bono or for a commercial channel then that's all very well, but the BBC is paid for by the public, they're not supposed to be biased with anything.
     
  5. Stevohorn

    Stevohorn Watching Grass Grow

    Agreed.. we are all skewed by bias.

    Furthermore his 58% success rate is pretty good i'd have thought. He might be overly negative towards us but i think we believe he's worse than he is because of that.
     
  6. If you predicted that the majority of teams likely to finish in the bottom half of the table would loose all their games, without knowing who they were playing, and equally, that all top half teams would win all their games, you would probably end up with an average of around 58 percent correct, I imagine.
     
  7. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    58% success rate sounds pretty good to me. Not sure why so many get hung up on it anyway, seems like an irrational thing to get wound up about.
     
  8. brumhorn

    brumhorn First Year Pro

    How many of our wins has he correctly predicted? He might be getting 58% but maybe he's getting that from him predicting us to lose (or at least not win) every week

    I've shocked myself that I care about this enough to post about it. But it's a Friday and we haven't played for ages.
     
  9. Stevohorn

    Stevohorn Watching Grass Grow

    Yes it's true to say that him generally backing us to lose has helped when we have been obliging in that department.
    He's only correctly backed us to win in 1 game out of the 8 victories this season.. and he backed us to win twice when we in fact lost. He does have an ok record for predicting when we will draw (4 out of 6 correct) but really comes into his own for defeats, correctly predicting we would lose 10 of the 11 games we have.


    So in fairness, yes, his negative outlook on how we will fare has artificially bumped up the percentage of what he gets correct.
    Similarly our (overly) positive outlook does the opposite because we tend to lose more than we win at this level.
     
  10. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Lawro gone for us to win 2-1 again!

    Merson has 1- 1 again..
     
  11. Levon

    Levon Squad Player

    And Lawro's guest has gone for us to lose. I don't know who to believe.
     
  12. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Got us down to lose - good thing?
     
  13. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    Who hasn't got us down to lose?
     
  14. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I put us down to lose in the predictions league, I put us down to draw in my Super 6, and I'll have a small wager on us to win.

    Somethings gotta come in surely.
     
  15. If you defined 'us' it would be a bit easier to answer your question. If you mean you, Moog and HB1 then none of 'us'.

    Personally I reckon 40 40 20 win draw lose.
     
  16. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    Us = Watford FC m8.
     
  17. Then may I suggest you adopt a brighter outlook. When I read your posts, the cream in my scones starts to curdle and the snow drops in the garden wilt.

    If not for me, think of the garden, and the scones.
     
  18. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    I always hope for the best. Experience, however, has taught me to expect the worst.
     
  19. Nnnn

    Nnnn First Team

    Me too. Expect the worst, hope for the best. That way you can only ever be pleasantly surprised.
     
  20. MarlonsCellMate

    MarlonsCellMate Reservist

    Or get so drunk you're numb to the disappointment of defeat or the thrill of victory. So drunk you don't even make it to the ground and are spotted face down in oliver grove.
     
  21. At least we agree on one thing. Come on you 'Orns.
     
  22. I'm more, expect the best, hope for the best, accept that the worst is likely to happen.
     
  23. Nnnn

    Nnnn First Team

    My philosophy is good. Yours is better.
     

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