Covid-19 Virus

R[sub]0[/sub] and R[sub]e[/sub] require very good contact tracing data - which we simply don't have:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1804098/

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-...tion-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

The last one is probably the 'best' also note Figure 4 for an answer to "...if you've had it once you can't catch it gain..." ps I *thought* there were three strains of flu in 1918-1919?

 

Is it me or does that leave a gaping big grey area in the middle? Either that or it’s not very clear. It outlines essential industries that should be open, but then says the only exceptions are hospitality and non essential retail... so where does that leave normal offices, call centres etc?

Edit: on re-reading it I assume it’s taken as assumed that those types of businesses don’t need to close, but their employees should work from home.

 

Yup. It's the basically same stance they've had all along. Nothing is really due to change on the 'what businesses can open?' front until 1 June at the earliest.

 

I see all the main tourism boards have had a hissy in response to the government's announcement that people from Wednesday can travel as far as they want to reach open spaces or beaches, as long as they socially distances when they get there. It's downright bizarre that Cumbrian Tourism thinks the government should have consulted or notified it about the changes in advance, as if there nothing else to occupy civil servants' time. The statement last night and today's guidance was your notification. Now get on with it.

The flip side of their ill-advised comments is there will no doubt be confrontations between locals and visitors. even though the latter will be doing absolutely nothing wrong.

 

The thing about unlimited distance is very stupid. Surely state something reasonable like drive within 15 miles from home as I would imagine that pretty much everyone in England lives within 15 miles of somewhere where they can exercise or sunbathe.

As an example someone living in Carlisle could go to Landsend but not Gretna.

 

So can we all drive to our second homes by the coast yet and spend a few days walking along the coast ? We obviously can't travel to our 3rd and 4th homes in Wales and Scotland yet.
Hopefully soon we will be able to fly to Europe as long as we self-isolate for 14 days when we return ?

 

Why do you think it's 'very stupid'? It's based on advice from SAGE that the risk of catching the virus outside if you socially distance is very small.

 

It makes sense to me, they want to alleviate people’s boredom and get buy in for the lockdown to continue by allowing them to go off to the beach etc. The risk of spread outside is pretty minimal, it’s largely why flu dies out in the summer. If people stick to the rules there should be no issues. Where it potentially falls down is if large groups of people (large groups of mates/different families) decide to gather in large numbers in parks and on beaches and ruin it for everyone.

 

That’s the other thing, it’s all weather dependent. We’ve had fantastic weather recently, but we’re not guaranteed or likely to get weeks of endless sunshine with everyone packed onto the beaches day in day out. A few rainy weekends will help to keep things under control anyway.

 

So imagine someone who has but is asymptomatic, drives 200 miles to a national park somewhere, quickly nips into a Tesco Metro near their destination for something and inadvertently passes it on to one or two other people. Yes that could easily happen closer to home but then if people are not supposed to travel more than x miles then the chances of that person's illness getting spread far and wide is minimised.

Therefore it would have been more sensible (maybe stupid was too strong) to limit distance from home.

 

Bit rough though as unless you can work at home your week in Ibeefa has cost you three weeks annual leave.

So where in the UK are folks taking their holidays this year?

 

Good news for Chief Medical Officers and the like.

 

Or just come through France and not have to! Vive le France! #france #benidorm

 

Fortunate enough to be able to work from home in this current situation, but working for a plenty decent size company based in the UK, we’re being prepped for working at home for the next 4 months at minimum.

 

I CAN work at home .
Wife can't
Are we allowed to take UK holidays yet ? Hotels may open 1 July and travel is still limited ie you can't drive to rented accomodation can you ??

 

Fair response and scenario. However, the probability has to be very very low that would happen. Or at least low enough that the benefits outweigh it.

 

DfE issued detailed guidance to nurseries and schools about potentially reopening in June at 8pm tonight. National Education Union has already advised its members not to engage in any of the planning suggested by the government. Basically, not to cooperate.

 

Surely you have been led astray by a bad newspaper? Balanced poster Moose told us this very morning that unions most of the time work constructively with Government and anyone who thinks otherwise is brainwashed by the tabloids?

I suppose this might be one of those very rare exceptions to the rule, so I look forward to Aslef and RMT working constructively with the Government to solve the trains conundrums.

 

I never claimed Government always works responsibly with the unions though.

The plans do present an opportunity to move forward, but you can’t just dismiss all concerns about the details as bad unions or bad devolved Governments. So it’s a plan, but thus far it’s not great leadership.

And the schools may be one of the most difficult problems to crack. If you read the detail of the 55 page document you can see why. The recommendations don’t add up when applied to teaching. The Government can sit down and work constructively or it can rely on berks like you to simply trot out anti union guff on its behalf.

 

Sorry but no.

He ignored the science, the WHO declared COVID19 a global health hazard on 3oth January, he told the country it would be fine and he would carry on as normal.

A lockdown was ordered when he succumbed to the virus and he's now gaslighting the country.

His actions led to the UK having the 2nd highest global death toll and now he's advocating a slight easing in restrictions when the infection rate is far from controlled.

I have zero sympathy for him as he has the death of thousands on his hands.

 

Once Unions start asking for "guarantees" on safety when guarantees are impossible it is clear they are not interested in any cooperation.

The PCS (Public and Commercial Services Union) sent me an email yesterday, as I am still associated with it due to my working with them at HMRC. These are the first few lines of an email being sent to all members.

"With the government considering changes to the coronavirus lockdown we have reached a pivotal moment and we need your views in our new survey.

We have been raising two issues on your behalf:

• your health and safety
• your pay and conditions."

Then, in the survey, amongst other stuff they are asking opinions on what route to take. In question 3, the first two options are

(i) An immediate across the board above inflation pay increase.
(ii) An immediate across the board above inflation pay increase.

I kid you not, there are no other options regarding pay. No option of, "Hold fire until this tragedy is over". They, like ambulance chasers, are taking the opportunity to take the country to the cleaners.

(If I could find my Tinypic replacement to work, I'd show a screenshot.)

Disgraceful.

 

You are a man who posted this morning about great union co-operation in the morning and interest in being constructive , only to see a union a few hours later state “our strong advice is that you currently should not engage with any planning on a wider opening of schools”.

“Don’t engage”. How very constructive. I appreciate you’ve made yourself look a fool, but I’d suggest you quietly let this one slide rather than thrashing about and insulting people.

 

Call me old fashioned but I’d rather there weren’t several hundred deaths and several thousand new infections PER DAY before lockdown was eased.

 

Care homes threatened with withholding of council uplift payments if they didn't take in Covid patients.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...they-didnt-take-in-covid-19-patients-11986578

 

Who said this and in what context?

Really don’t need a lecture from you about being insulting. The whole forum would breath a sigh of relief if you gained some manners.

 

If so that’s shocking behaviour by those Councils. We will need a public enquiry to understand exactly who allowed this to happen.

Councils in turn face large fines for delaying discharges from hospitals. If the Govt guidance allowed the hospitals to discharge positive or untested patients, then a pressure would have been created on the Councils that it appears to have been passed on. It’s beyond shocking really. Only older people and care workers could be treated like this.

 

It’s a bit of a shame that you can’t accurately describe a survey you link to, but fortunately the survey is available if outraged forum members simply click the link.

The stuff about pay clearly contains ongoing issues, such as a Govt attempt to cut pensions. It is quite reasonable that the PCS act on behalf of their members in this matter.

ZZ also fails to mention that there is a multiple choice element. So all the members could indicate which elements they support and how strongly or not. For example members can indicate full support for issues around H+S but not around the pay issues or vice versa.

And ZZ misquotes the poll. Members are not asked the same question twice as he has edited out that the second question asks for views on the elements of the above. Members can indicate the level of support for the actions at this time.

This clearly provides context for union members to consider the current situation and the appropriateness of the campaign now.

This is a new low ZZ. They may be hiring at the Sun so get in quickly.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/teaching-union-warns-members-not-22011545

NEU joint general secretaries in a letter sent by email to their members yesterday.

 

A Geordie teacher has posted a helpful summary of the advice:

 

I copied and pasted the intro, that is exactly as I said. They are using this tragedy as a way of ramping up their claim for an above inflation pay rise.

Initially the link didn't work, but then I managed to get back in to create the link so that everyone could see for themselves. Two questions are indeed asked twice. Look again, Question 3(b) (i) and (ii). There are no other questions on pay. Only that one (asked twice).

So, instead of suggesting that I am lying when I actually attach the link, you need to look at yourself, Moose, along with your slavish ridiculous attempts at defending everything the unions do..

 

Seems fine to me. The Union is saying it’s not for individual teachers to reopen schools before agreement has been reached nationally.

They are raising important issues. Time for the Government to talk seriously about them rather than rely on haters on social media to poison the public against teachers.

B_Wood Horn’s post shows clearly the level of contradictions in the Govt’s advice. Should teachers simply ignore those problems when the Govt is insisting everyone else does not?

 

I am not a union devotee but I don't read the letter as saying the NEU is unwilling to engage with the government but are advising individual members not to engage with the current plan until the concerns raised are addressed.

The NEU is even saying they want engagement with the government:

"So far the Government has not engaged with us to discuss any further advice on social distancing, testing in schools, PPE or about those who are vulnerable, including BME staff."

I think the advice to members to not engage with anything going on with their own schools until the union gets clarity on how their concerns on the above are addressed is fair enough imo.

If teachers are not happy with the NEU's advice they are free to ignore it or leave the union.

 

Seems fine to Moose. Who would have thought?

Of course they are important issues and need to be discussed by both Unions and Government. However when the union instructs members “not to engage” and call the other side reckless in an official statement then that is where the problem lies. How do issues get resolved satisfactorily with an attitude like that?