Covid-19 Virus

or alternatively 6 x 7

 

Yes, probably.

 

I just did. I wrote that our compliance, other than from cake and eat it Tories like yourself was good enough to accept pretty drastic measures.

But we didn’t probably need to go down the whole high surveillance route.

Early lockdown, summer eradication, early autumn half term lockdown, proper test, track and trace (using the Korean kit not cronies) no eat out to help out, no Xmas and no Cummings would have made a massive difference.

 

I can see us invading Belgium, as this issue escalates.

 

We'll never know for certain if restrictions have impacted death rates - what we can say is that the long term health impact caused by the postponement of scans and other checks and the health problems resulting from the poverty so many people will find themslves living with as a consequence of shutting down the economy will be greater than the number of Covid deaths

 

The vaccine is a precious resource and simply getting the UK there first isn’t the only perspective to take in a Worldwide emergency. There must be some compromise and working together.

 

I'm always willing to learn so, if you've got time, please explain where I'm going wrong

 

Lucky the AZ one is a not-for-profit vaccine then, we're the 2nd biggest donor to Covax and once we're sorted we'll probably be giving away our leftovers to poorer countries.

Plus, arguably, if you wanted to direct the vaccine to those in the greatest need and with the worst outbreak then it's difficult to look much beyond the UK being near the head of that queue either.

 

I don't know what the contract said but according to AZ's CEO the delay in getting the stuff to the EU is because the EU were slow off the mark

 

Well, he would say that wouldn't he...

Though it may be true.

 

I haven't got the time.

 

Sure and the UK has been at the head of the queue. That’s probably an argument for everyone to simply give all the vaccine to the US.

 

I'm sure the US' for-profit pharma companies have been obliged to make sure the home front is suitably stocked before they start exporting.

 

It’s a dangerous road to go down, this playing independent nation states. It all looks great until you need some cooperation in return. Then we’ll be whingeing about how no one thinks of us.

 

When the Moderna results were published, the UK hadn't ordered any at that point, then decided to order (6 million I think) doses, we were late to the Moderna party and quite rightly back of the queue on that vaccine. IIRC we won't get any of that until March or April, the UK government acknowledged they made a late order and haven't made protestations about it.

From what I understand the EU order of AZ should be treated in the same way. I also guess there are some countries in the EU wishing they did the vaccination programme themselves rather than have the EU oversee it.

 

Their maps are pretty much redundant these days thanks to sat nav anyway.

 

But the only body I can see that is publicly threatening the transport of vaccines across its borders is the EU?

I'm conscious this might sit far better in the politics thread. But while I like the EU, voted remain etc, I think on this one they've seriously dropped the ball. While Keighley is absolutely right that what the contract says will ultimately determine the dispute, it's difficult to get away from the argument the EU was slow to act on securing the AZ vaccine because of its wish to engage in collective bargaining.

 

How would that have made a difference if production can’t keep up? The EU may have done all it needed to, albeit not as promptly as the UK.

We are where we are though and pulling up the drawbridge is risky. If it gets us less overall supply because the EU takes drastic action what will we have gained? Diplomacy required.

 

I think this is a highly simplistic way of looking at it which ignores the hundreds of millions of euros the EU put into the development of the AZ vaccine.

 

Have you read the la Repubblica interview with the AZ CEO? It's all explained in there.

He says production at each site takes time to stabalise, as they set up new supply lines, machinery, facilities etc with new partners. Plus vaccine production quantities can be variable as it's a biological process rather than just churning out widgets from a CAD machine. What the EU is encountering now is what he says the UK supply chain went through 3 months ago and has now overcome. Which of course, is almost exactly the same gap as between the UK signing on and the EU doing its own deal.

 

Granted, however I understand that two factories in the bloc are in the process of being set up, maybe that is part of the reason for the delay.

Like @UEA_Hornet said, I voted to remain, so I don't have a major axe to grind with them, but they have made a mess of this for a few reasons:

• Firstly they fail to mention that the Pfizer vaccine currently manufactured in Belgium is also behind in their promises.
• Their approach to UK/AZ is borderline threatening.
• Their vaccine programme is way behind schedule, so even without the shortfall they would end up stockpiling it anyway.
• They haven't even approved the AZ vaccine yet.
• The UK are the second highest provider to the WHO's Covax project, most of our surplus should be redirected to developing countries not to ill-prepared large countries/blocs.
• It doesn't help when a German minister tweets that it only has 8% efficacy in over 65s. (not the EU's fault but no public slapping down was made)
• The EU even accused AZ of profiteering, which is rubbish as they are the only major vaccine manufacturer to sell at cost, unlike Pfizer amongst others.

Finally to answer your final point, yes they did send hundreds of millions towards the development but that is akin to donating to a charity and then kicking the door down and demanding the best return from it.

 

Ok, fair dos, I have now and it is a very interesting article, very diplomatic too. Hopefully the AZ supply will be as good as his confidence in it and the row can be put to bed. It’s clear that the UK has made good decisions early on.

 

£5 says @zztop will frame that.

 

I am a massive fan of the UK, everyone knows that, as well as being a top bloke and a great shag.

 

Problem is, AZ seem to have committed to their delivery schedule AFTER the impact of the 3 months' negotiating delays; so that cannot now be used as a reason for not achieving the contractually-agreed timescale. The EU is also a bit pi553d off that AZ used inventory that had been produced in their NL & BE factories and was meant to form part of their shipments into EU countries to dig themselves out of a hole caused by production shortfalls in the UK. So they are demanding the same volume be shipped back from UK production to balance it out. That doesn't seem massively unreasonable.

As there are clearly production shortfalls, then the only equitable solution is for all customers to accept they will only receive a percentage of the contractually-agreed volumes proportionate to the scale of the supply shortfall. So if AZ can only produce 60% of their target volumes, everyone should accept they will only receive 60% of their anticipated delivery.

 

So let's say we get all the vaccines in the UK and Europe lags months behind. How will that help our economy? Yes we'll all be protected and going to the pub but the rest of Europe still will be in lockdown meaning trading/travel etc is still just as bad as if we were all still hiding away over here.
We need to be vaccinating ALL the European countries together despite the political differences, then all our economies recover in line.

Who knows, it might even get us some kudos from our European friends.

 

AZ's argument is there was no firm schedule. It was a 'best efforts' deal. Their best effort at the moment is a quarter of what they were aiming for.

I agree with the bit about inventory moving from NL/BE to the UK though if it's true.

 

Thought it seems AZ has denied this too. It says it sent doses from the UK to those factories for ‘fill and finish’ (ie. putting into vials) in the period before the Wrexham bottling factory was set up. And that it has no impact on the issues the EU supply chain is now having.

 

I found you a disappointing shag but agree with the rest.

 

You did find me a disappointing shag and I’m still waiting for you to collect it. I was expecting a cormorant and a contract is a contract.

 

Not to mention this vaccine is still not approved for release in the EU. Do they expect to manufacture them and leave them in a refrigerated warehouse on the off chance at some point they will be able to use them whilst people crying out for as much vaccine as possible and are allowed to use it die.

In no way under any circumstances does the EU look anything other than a bunch of rude words in this exercise.

 

It was an advanced purchase contract. They expect AZ to be ready to deliver once approval is given (which is expected to be tomorrow, according to the Grauniad).

 

If that's the case, then that puts a different complexion on things.
As part of my job, I had to agree a lot of "Supply & Service Agreements" with large organisations. Whenever I saw any reference to "best efforts" or similar I tried to get it changed to something more quantifiable, as I knew it had the potential to create a lot of difference of opinion as to what actually constituted "best efforts".