Werewolf XVI: Day 5

Really need to lynch a wolf either today or Monday then!

 

Do Mason's know the identity of a few good players then?

 

I think we are guaranteed a wolf tonight

 

The masons are now crucial as is the final very good player we have left aside from the guardian.

Finding 2 evils out of 17 players isn't going to be easy but there's plenty of time yet, even if a third wolf arrives on Monday. We have 15 more players than they do and even if that becomes less, the chances of lynching an evil player becomes greater.

The most difficult part will be if we have lost both Seers. We had had messages by this time on previous days I think which makes me think the Wolf is waiting to see if we have a Seer. We may receive 0, 1 or 2 messages today.

 

Hmmm

I don't even know where to start. Message please

 

The first message has arrived...

Anonymous message #1:

 

Yeah that's what I thought. Hopefully they're working together in some sort of subtle way.

 

The messages have to be the starting point. Particularly when you look at them altogether and follow any logical consequences. In time, wolf's messages can be as useful as the seer's.

Anyone advocating random lynching and making unfounded accusations is either deliberately evil or playing into their hands.

 

Hmmmm...

I think this must be the seer. Why would a wolf post FIRST if he didn't know if team good had a seer or not. Think about it, if I were the wolf I would wouldn't want to risk putting a message out right now in case another one didn't follow, it would just show to everybody that the message itself is in fact from the wolf.

 

I hope people understand what I'm trying to say.

 

Now that's a very interesting comment just 5 minutes before 352 posts an anonymous message declaring someone evil!

 

Harrow - i understand where you are coming from, but as you have alluded too, if the wolf now decided not to post a message it makes this first message look like its come from the wolf.

I can also see why the seer, if we have one, wouldn't post first

 

Was that a message to Harrow or moog? Just asking.

 

It's also the first I've heard about new Seer being appointed. Beta wolf goes to Alpha wolf etc and there's the full moon plan next week but a new Seer? It's all a little too convenient.

 

There was 4 masons to begin with, i'd be very surprised if all were still alive

 

I'm pretty certain that first message is the seer. Also, I'll be shocked if the wolf posts a message though. The only way people might think that 1st message is from the wolf is if he does not post, and I'm sure Moog knows that.

 

I think whatever happens, Moog has to go. If he turns out good, then of course we know we dont have a seer.

Lets see how things play out this afternoon.

 

Interesting. My initial reaction is that the message is from the seer. It makes sense for the wolf to wait and see if there would be any message from a seer today. Obviously we have to wait for the second message, but right now I'm heavily leaning towards voting for Moog

 

Exactly.

 

Harrow, you're right. But we all know that, not only moog

At the moment, Moog is our only suspect until we get another message, whether that's today or monday

 

If/when I'm gone, I expect people to look at you and Philipine next.

You've both been gunning for me this morning and your claims a couple of posts back, that you could obviously see that Miked was good yesterday, just doesn't hold true.

Yes you voted to lynch me, but your posts were all over the place. Just as they have been all game. Plus you're constantly pretending that you don't know which role is which, even though you've featured in every game so far. Plus you've got this "I keep voting badly lol!" thing going on, pretending that your bad voting habits are accidental, not deliberate.

 

Glad we're on the same page. Of course lets all wait as long as we can for a second message, but Moog mate, it looks like your time in the village is coming to a close!

 

Fair enough. At least you have based a conclusion on evidence.

Harrow, Philipine and Cassetti are constantly coming to a conclusion and then trying to find evidence to support it.

 

Obvious wolf post is obvious.

Player is suspected by one or two people
Wolf has already killed seer
Wolf posts obvious post about suspected player
Wolves live to see full moon where 2 becomes 3
Evil wins
Good vilagers scratch their arses wondering what went wrong

 

I didn't think Miked was evil, so why would I vote for him? I had suspicions about you, so I voted for you. I don't see the issue with that.

Some of my posts are in jest, maybe you have read them wrong. But, I genuinely wasn't sure exactly what the role mason entails, for example.

And as for my "keep voting badly" thing, you will see at the end of this game I am but a simple villager, with a lot of emphasis on the simple part!

 

And therein lies the problem with today. You've been acting logically Moog and I for one are prepared to stick my neck out and say I don't think you're evil. I may well be naive of course but there are 2 wolves and possibly 1 tinker. IF today's message is from this rather unexpected new Seer, then you may indeed have been viewed as evil even you're a tinker. So...

Let's says it is 50/50 that the message implicating Moog is from a new Seer (although I suspect the odds are less because I'm unconvinced such a thing exists) then it is 67/33 that he's evil. By my reckoning, that makes Moog more likely to be good than evil. Does that make sense to others?

 

PS that does presuppose that the Alpha Wolf knows who the other wolf is and I don't think that's been confirmed. It remains possible the Alpha Wolf has mistakenly outed the other wolf or of course Moog and the Alpha are one and the same.

 

The wolfs know each other as well, right?

 

I really do not see any other option as things currently stand.

 

No, you're right. It has to be me at this point.

I'm not happy about it, but I hope that when I'm gone people learn from it and recognise who was evil, based on the way they've gone after me.