Watford 1-2 Derby County - 22/11/2014

International breaks really are boring, aren't they. I spent most of it wanting Anya to destroy England and drinking wine. Anyway, it's my turn again. I write this still nursing a collosal hangover from last night, listening to some Northern Soul having sat through an interminable training session today about Agile software development. And Keech's value hasn't gone up.

I'll stick to the format from last time unless anyone objects. And if you want to come round and make me dinner I'll be especially grateful. As with last time, click on the links for some mild LOLworthy fun.

Them

• Name: Derby County, obvs
• Nicknames: The Rams; less lovingly, The Sheep
• Founded: 1884, 4 days after the publication of what would become The Oxford English Dictionary. Watford, of course, were already toddling around and planning a singing section
• Ground (capacity): Pride Park, currently branded the iPro Stadium (33,597, or 1.92 pre-Community Stand Vics)
• Chairman: All-American Rasslin' champ Andrew D. Appleby
• Manager: Steve McClaren
• Forum: dcfcfans.uk. Their preview
• Rivals: The East Midlands Three-way plus, historically, Dirty Leeds. Burton don't like them much, but who really cares about Burton

Previously

A late Connor Sammon winner last October made it 3-2 to Derby against a Watford team featuring such luminaries as Belkalem, Iriney, McEachran, Fabbrini and Acuña. It was the first of five defeats that would see Franco resign, and it kick-started Derby's season.

In late April, following that nearly-but-not-quite performance at Loftus Road, Derby won the return match 4-2 in a game that saw Marco Cassetti sent off, probably for being too handsome. I can't remember.

I'm fairly sure someone split Ted McMinn in half in the early 90s, which is one of the few memories I have of Derby from my youth.

Head to head record

• 40 matches
• 12 wins
• 12 draws
• 16 defeats

Played for both

Craig Ramage (I had this poster on my wall growing up), John Eustace, Craig Forsyth, George Thorne, Theo Robinson, Mart Poom, Jordan Stewart, Nathan Ellington, Grzegorz Rasiak, Nigel Callaghan, Tommy Smith, Ryan Noble, Lionel Ainsworth, Dean Yates, Sir Thomas of Mooney, Nicky Wright Wright Wright, Eric Steele, Peter Kennedy, Tamás Priskin, Chris Powell, Junior (kinda), probably dozens more

Currently

Derby's recent form (as a GIF):

08/11/14 (h) Wolves, W 5-0
04/11/14 (h) Huddersfield, W 3-2
01/11/14 (a) Brentford, L 1-2
28/10/14 (a) Fulham, W 5-2 (League Cup)
25/10/14 (h) Wigan, L 1-2

Our recent form (as a GIF):

08/11/14 (a) Ipswich, L 0-1
04/11/14 (a) Birmingham, L 1-2
01/11/14 (h) Millwall, W 3-1
25/10/14 (a) Middlesbrough, D 1-1
21/10/14 (h) Nottingham Forest, D 2-2

Attacking-wise, Watford and Derby are both labelled 'constant threat' in the Experimental 3-6-1 map of shots taken vs shots per goal. Derby do better than us in defence, with 17 shots faced per goal conceded earning them the 'formidable' tag. We're merely 'competent but busy'.

Derby's record over the past 12 months or so is pretty formidable. After a sloppy start to last season, they set at the division from autumn onwards like Craig Ramage at a July barbecue. Once they missed out on an automatic spot they were most people's tip for the play-offs, losing to a late Bobby Zamora goal against QPR at the home of NFL, Wembley. Apparently they spent the summer in a period of cryogenesis, picking right up where they left off, their last result being a 5-0 shellacking of Wolves. Still, only three points separate them and us, but it'd take a 6-goal swing for us to draw level with them on goal difference.

They have a pretty settled team at the moment, with only a handful of changes in the last few league games. Their defence is particularly predictable and Jack Butland recently signed a 7-day extension to his loan, allowing him to play against us while Lee Grant returns from his ankle knack. Derby's lofty position with over a third of the season gone suggests they are far more than a one-man team, but pedestrian indie-rocker Chris Martin leads their scoring charts by some distance with 12 goals (10 in the league). Ward, sometime-Watford target Hendrick and Russell each have 5.

I'm hopeful we'll see the return of a few players from injury. Will Almen Abdi be fit? Don't ask me. Or, if you do ask me, I'll say yes, but more out of hope than expectation. Ditto male model Gabriele Angella. At home I think we'll see a fairly adventurous line-up that with Paredes at right-back, and Forestieri and Vydra supporting Deeney.

Team and score predictions

Watford (4-3-2-1): Gomes; Paredes, Bassong, Angella, Pudil; T*zsér, Abdi, Munari; Forestieri, Vydra; Deeney
Derby (4-3-3): Butland; Christie, Keogh, Shotton, Forsyth; Hendrick, Mascarell, Hughes; Russell, Martin, Dawkins

Final score: 2-1. Forsyth's 35-yard belter is cancelled out by a Bassong header from a corner. Vydra's neat finish after Abdi's through-ball send the home fans into some sort of ecstacy, as Watford return to form after recent back-to-back defeats. Unfortunately, results elsewhere mean that only 2 points separate 1st and 23rd. Blackpool are relegated. You don't have to be crazy to play in this division but etc and so on.

 

You know damn well that's why he was sent off, there is no probably about it.

 

So if we win 3-0, we will be on: P18 W9 D5 L4 F:33 A:19 GD 14
Compared to Derby County's : P18 W9 D5 L4 F:33 A:19 GD 14

Who would be ahead?

 

'Recent form as a GIF' is my favourite thing ever.

 

FIFA Predicts...

Watford 2 - 1 Derby County

45' - Martin - Martin converts a square ball from the six yard box
47' - Deeney - A free kick is sent into the box, Abdi directs a header towards Deeney who nods it in
71' - Forestieri - After a one-two with Vydra, Forestieri beats two men and shoots to the bottom left corner

Watford substitutions:
57' - Tozser off/Andrews on
82' - Munari off/Murray on
90' - Forestieri off/Ighalo on

Man of the match: Matej Vydra

Odds: 2-1 @17/2

---------------------------------

P18 W13 D2 L3 Pts41 GD14

We would be 1st in the table

Top scorers:
Vydra (6)
Deeney (4)
Ighalo (3)

Most assists:
Abdi (5)
Ighalo (3)
Tozser (3)

 

We'll win this one as McGugan has left Watford.

 

We will have to have a play-off.

 

Any chance this could be stickied please?

 

Bournemouth

 

Good preview and a very plausible prediction. I reckon this is a good bet for +2.5 goals market. Can't see Forsyth scoring from 35 yards though. Cyrus Christie plays the more advanced FB role at the moment and Forsyth has consequently not shown the same attacking threat as last season. Can't see Cyrus scoring from 35 yards either though - shooting has been the weakest part of this game. Russell is in good form at the moment and would be my bet for first Derby scorer (if we score).

One minor correction - Appleby is Chairman, Sam Rush is CEO/MD. Not that it will affect the result.

....and who really cares about Burton? Radio Derby, if you ask Derby fans from North and East of Derby, because oddly Radio Derby's catchment area includes East Staffordshire so they get coverage ahead of Chesterfield for example and it winds some fans up a treat. In truth, a fair few traditional Derby fans in the Burton area probably go to both teams games sometimes. Plus better beer is brewed in Derby now than in Burton, which is probably a bit galling to fans of 'the Brewers'.

 

I care about Burton.

Maybe because of the Burtonisation of water and it's importance in brewing decent beer.

 

3-0 to Derby. Tough day for the Hornets

 

That's Buxton.

 

Id be very relieved with a draw

 

If we win the midfield battle we'll win the game IMO.

 

I'd prefer a win, but I do think it will be difficult and thus a draw would be the second best result.

A loss would not be a good result.

 

Can't see us getting many, if any, points for a defeat here, would much prefer a win.

 

Heart says game called off due to fighting in the crowd, head says win, draw or lose.

 

"I'm not at all fazed by Watford, I think their backline is quite frankly shambles. In fact, take away their very impressive frontline and you're left with an average championship side, maybe even below average."

Balls, the Derby boyz have sussed us out. Might not bother going now.

 

Take away our front line, starting midfield, Angella, Bassong and Gomes and you've got an average Championship side.

 

Funny, If you take away 6 or 7 players from Derbys starting 11, you would have a very average championship team.

 

Can never understand why teams hate us so much, I'm not complaining. If someone doesn't like you, your doing something right

Oh well... Little old Watford eyyyy

 

If you take away our entire team then we haven't got a team at all ...

 

Very valid point

 

Score draw. Vydra and Martin both to bag.

International break came at a great time. This could have been an awful result for us if it came two weeks ago (still could be tbh). I'm optimistic though, I guess.

 

Worrying if true. Though it would be FFP compliant I imagine.

 

the striker battle and the defence battle are even more important, cos if we win both of them, we have a good chance for the 6 points (plus .5 for goal difference!!) IMHO!!

 

Quick top half stats.

Watford v top half teams = P8 W1 D4 L3 GS8 GC12 GD-4 Pts7 (17th on points per match)

Watford v top half teams home = P3 W1 D2 GS5 GC4 GD+1 Pts5 (8th on points per match)

Derby v top half teams = P8 W3 D3 L2 GS17 GC11 GD+6 Pts12 (5th on points per match)

Derby v top half teams away = P4 W1 D1 L2 GS7 GC8 GD-1 Pts4 (6th on points per match)

 

What is it with the 'we could win or lose or draw etc etc etc' comments. Does it never get tedious?

There has been a chasm between our home and away form for a while now. I don't think we should go into this feeling as though we will get beaten despite two recent AWAY losses. One was down to managerial mistakes and the other might well have been a very respectable draw. Derby themselves haven't exactly looked a tour de force on the road recently.

You're right though - I would be sitting in the Rookery at 5 to 3 feeling a lot better with Angella in the starting line up.

 

Surely it's highly likely we will win, lose or draw though?

 

Very tedious but keeps them happy I suppose.
Given up trying to predict results in this league long. Got a good feeling about this though especially with Abdi back. How long is Angella out for?

 

It's just that when I come along, quite genuinely wanting to think about the match ahead, I have to read this nonsense every single f'ing time! The worst part about it is that people actually seem to think it's funny!

It might have been the first 300 times ... but I kinda doubt it. Yes haha - it's a football match - it's better to win and not so good to lose. We're punning the way people analyse football matches - very funny. So funny in fact that we might as well do it next week and the week after that and so on.

I haven't got a figure for how long Angella is out for but a week or two ago Hornet Player seemed to imply that he was back onto light training. Got to be at least another 3-4 weeks hasn't it? Shame really cos we have a c**t of a Christmas period ahead.

 

Posts that consciously dump a right load of twaddle into the mix, not worthy of being read, should not be counted on users' tallies!

In fact they should result in 2 days in the sin bin!

 

Agreed WT and even Pudil is better than Forsyth