General Election - Who do we vote for

I think tomorrow and saturday due to the bigger constituencies

 

Dorothy Thornhill brought the Pozzos to Watford according to her "improvement of institutions" - FML.

 

FTR, I would sooner grab some barbed wire, open my mouth, pull through the wire 'til it comes out my arse and floss myself to death rather than vote Labour.

 

link?

 

Euro results will be announced on Sunday evening. The count won't even take place until Sunday as we have to wait for the rest of Europe to vote first.

 

FTR me too but I might well have to in my borderline constituency.

 

You mean in Sunderland where they've got 24% of the vote and ZERO councillors? What a great start!

 

Could have enjoyed a shout box on this one.

 

Zero to 24% in a labour stronghold ? That is a good start ? Lib dems 3%

 

No, it's from zero to zero. Zero is equivalent to nil. Zilch. Nada. Nothing. No seats. These elections are first past the post. You either win the seat or you go home with nothing. The European elections are different.

They didn't stand there in 2010.

 

None they didn't stand.

 

I'm sure they'll say they are. But they'll know deep down that it's meaningless looking ahead to a general election in less than a year.

 

How though? The reality of our electoral system means that if they get one single MP at the next general election it'll have taken a mammoth effort. And that's not me being anti-UKIP, I'm just stating fact. Council elections are easily won by comparison with Parliamentary ones. Farage knows this and he's probably the only one with enough public exposure to be able to win a seat.

 

This usually.

But with clueless Ed in charge, I would get far more desperate than this.

 

Bizarre post. If I ran as an independent in a Labour stronghold and polled 25% first time out should I be encouraged for the future or just give up and not run next time? Your distate for UKIP is clouding your logic.

 

The point is 25% in Sunderland might indicate a better chance in more favourable target constituencies.

 

Of course they are unlikely to get many MPs next year with our current system. But you have to start somewhere and allow a political part to evolve. Should the Greens disband because they have only a small hope of getting more than 1 MP?

 

If Linda Topping wins god help us all.

 

If Phil Cox wins I'm moving to Leicester.

 

If 25% of people offer them a vote (in a labour stronghold), that's a huge slice of votes to be won for the Tories.
If the Tories changed policy tomorrow to say we will offer an in out referendum immediately we come to power, it would kill of UKIP in an instant and give then a large proportion of the UKIP votes. Probably enough for a majority. People like Some of UKIPs policies but I still don;t think they are trusted, certainly not at a general election.

I say Tories as they are the closest to UKIPs POV on Europe. Lib Dems have had it, they might get the odd seat next year but they are polar opposites to UKIP. Labour only want to offer a referendum on more powers.

There's 25% of the vote up for grabs and If Cam Moron doesn't go for it we'll probably see a Labour led coalition next term.

 

Not easy to draw massive conclusions from this result. For a start the turn out is much lower than a General Election and so more volatile.

I would imagine the most happy would be the Conservatives. They have avoided the usual heavy defeat of the incumbent Government and have seen the blockage in their way to a majority, the Lib Dems, collapse. They must be the most confident that votes lost to UKIP can return at the GE with at least their promise of a referendum on Europe as a possibility.

Labour will publicly say it's ok, but will know it's not and whilst UKIP have grown again and have a better result to come in the Euros they have not gone stellar. Considering that the election has been fought utterly on their strongest suits of Europe and Immigration they have made only a minor dent and those with the proportion that usually float. They will spend the next year getting utterly trounced by the establishment and beyond for idiocy such as the Kent councillor who wrote that anyone found to be expecting a Down's Syndrome child should be forced to have an abortion. They may hit a high watermark on Sunday when the Euro's come in, but it's the Tories who will win in the end.

 

Tend to agree with that Moose. Miliband is the real drag on Labour's chances and so long as he stays as leader they have a very small chance at the GE.

 

I think there are 3 types of UKIP voter.

1) The outright racist/former BNP voter who needs a new home. Will continue to vote UKIP.
2) The Tory who is angry at Cameron being too liberal and center ground. Unlikely to vote UKIP in general.
3) The unhappy working man Labour voter who sees immigration as a threat to his earnings. May return to Labour if Miliband sorts himself out. May stay with UKIP. Will never vote Tory.

I imagaine the 25% in Sunderland are category 3, so I don't see these as Cameron's to win?

 

6% advantage in the boundaries though. Still might be enough even with Miliband? If he polled what Cameron did at the last election that would be a majority for Labour (I think). Lib Dem voters returning to Labour might just swing it.

I definitely agree that even at this late stage, getting rid of Balls, Harman and Miliband and having a fresh start would gain them votes hand over fist.

 

Ukip blames London election performance on difficulty appealing to the 'educated and cultured' http://ind.pn/TAX6TH

Made me laugh.

 

I think he will win beacause of ukip, general elections are all about margins in the close seats, 60 to 70 % will always be labour or Tory no matter who is in charge, ukip will cost the Tory votes and just a little swing will win labour those seats !

 

This used to be the case, but I think UKIP are costing Labour votes now as well. Not sure what they base this on but UKIP "think" that a converted Labour voter is less likely to revert to base, than a converted Tory voter is.

 

Sigh - and this type of thing doesn't help their credibility either.

"Dear Other Parties & Their Media Chums and ESPECIALLY to spiteful left wing organisations...IT DIDN'T WORK YO! Love from UKIP Press Office x".

 

UKIP will do worse in London (and other major cities) then elsewhere simply because compared to the country as a whole there is a larger proportion of immigrants. Generalising immigrants are going to be less likely to vote UKIP than other parties.

It's all local election results at the moment anyway. Europe is not a local election topic. no one would want a UKIP council as they only care about one issue and not whether your bins are collected weekly or fortnightly. It's the European elections that will show a truer figure. Got a feeling UKIP will hoover up the majority of the European seats and it will prompt the Tories to strengthen their referendum promises.