Championship - 2022/23

I thought Boro looked surprisingly vulnerable to straight long balls.

 

In contrast, FiveThirtyEight - the sport prediction website - has the following end-of-season promotion probabilities:

Burnley 95%
Sheffield Utd 81%
WBA 20%
Millwall 18%
Norwich 16%
Middlesboro 15%
Watford 13%
***** Town 12%
Swansea 11%
Sunderland 6%

For me, these low values, for everyone apart from the top two, reflect the potential difficulty of finishing in the playoffs, let alone winning them.
Of course, this assumes you trust the underlying prediction algorithms.

 

I guess that about ties in. If we are in the playoffs we would be on of the two favorites I'd imagine, let's say 35% promotion. So 33% x 35% gets fairly close. I still don't see how we are 5% less likely that Millwall to go up to be honest or level with Luton.

 

Looks about right other than Millwall. The fact that we are only 13% must include a roughly 50/50 on us finishing top 6 given 13% is approx 50% x 25%. Makes sense. Anyone thinking we have nothing to play for until the playoffs may find the second half of the season more exciting than they expected.

 

Yes, I thought Millwall looked over optimistic too.

I've been watching the site all season and we have been gradually drifting down the table. On 5 September we were third on 36%. At that time Norwich were top and Sheffield were 2nd. Burnley were 4th.

 

If you’ve got half a day there is a very long complicated section about how FirtyFiveEight work out those percentages:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/

From what I can decipher they use a lot of data similar to things like XG, as well as doing things like weighting goals scored while ahead, or goals scored when having more players as worth less. This is then used to predict they likely amount of goals scored and goals conceded in remaining fixtures. Then there is a bit that explains how it tries to allow for teams having a lucky streak that their stats don’t support being sustainable long term, as football is generally a low scoring game, so lucky streaks happen.

So I guess when it comes to Millwall it’s a combination of underlying stats in games played so far x quality of opponent in remaining fixtures combined with if they have more home fixtures against easier teams than us x having a game in hand that places their odds ahead of ours. (Plus a load of other stuff I can’t understand)

 

Thanks a19. I'll have a look at that - a proper look this time - not like the first time I tried and gave up.

 

Can we still catch Brentford?

 

We won't finish above Brentford for at least a decade.

 

We can but it will take at least another season

 

Our bad apple is now Everton's bad apple
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/f...Doucoure-training-clashing-Frank-Lampard.html

 

He’ll probably be reinstated now as Lampard has just been dismissed.

 

I think 538 are very reliant on their assessment of team quality and then simulate the remaining games 000s of times to determine probabilities of different outcomes. The problem they have with us is that our current team quality is very different from the quality when Pedro, Louza and Davis return. I think a couple of good games with those players would significantly alter their assessment of our quality and would significantly alter our percentage chance of promotion.

 

Surely now is the perfect time for him to join PSG

 

If we're 3rd in the league at this stage with the amount of key injuries we've had so far, when we get the likes of Louza/Pedro/Davies back fit, and Aruajo/Martins/Kone fully integrated, with possibly another CM and CB to be added this window, why are we thinking we'll fall so far off the pace we'd be wiling to accept a top 10 finish?

 

Do you mean "top 6" ? Why would you accept a top 10 finish ?

 

Ourselves and Boro are both significantly better than Blackburn and Reading.

 

We're 3rd right now. Why would you accept top 10 as of now?

 

Kolo Toure sacked by Wigan after 9 games.

 

All that's wrong with football etc.

 

WBA and Boro will finish top 6. The rest of us are playing for the other 2 spots.

 

I wasn’t overly impressed with Middlesbrough yesterday. It’s just that we were so bad, that it made them look good.

If we had Pedro, Louza and maybe Porteous (for his character) out there yesterday, we win that game.

Trouble is, time is now running out. Our promotion possibilities solely rely on getting two key players fit.

 

Because the team, including all the players you have mentioned are not good enough at this level.
I accept that the Championship is exceptionally weak, but we are a very poor side.
We won't get relegated, but surviving in the Championship this season will be a major plus.