I also think Bournemouth will slip up. Norwich have too much experience in the squad. Even if we get third there is noone in the playoffs I wouldn't be confident against (except maybe Norwich but I guess if we got 3rd you would assume they are top 2)
I think the physical teams like Ipswich and Wolves would trouble us I'd fancy us to beat Boro/Brentford/Derby
Worst case scenario would be Bournemouth in 1st, Boro in 2nd, Norwich in 3rd, us in 4th, Wolves in 5th and Derby in 6th. Wolves then Norwich would be horrendous luck in the play-offs.
Remember we do only have to make up 2 goals on Narich; that is because we have scored more than them, therefore we would finish above them if the goal difference was identical.
All it takes is one loss to derail you, which is why I was so gutted to see Birmingham bottle it yesterday. It has a knock-on effect, especially for a club like Bournemouth, where it'd be a scarcely believable promotion from where they were not too long ago, it happened to us under Zola.
Norwich have 2 away games (Bolton and Leeds) coming up without their main man (Bradley Johnson suspended) They also face a home game against Fulham on the last day - a team that they consider a bit of a bogey team. (http://www.11v11.com/teams/norwich-city/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/Fulham)
Everyone will slip up, this is the Championship, you only have to look at everyone's results in the past couple of months, e.g. Boro losing at home to Leeds, Norwich losing at home to Wigan. The two teams getting automatic will be those who slip up the least, plenty of twists are still to come, one more defeat for any of the four won't be fatal.
The old adage of 'due a defeat' springs to mind with Bournemouth and Norwich. We had our defeat against Ipswich, so while it is unlikely for us to win all of our games, i think it more than likely that Norwich especially will drop points (Bradley Johnson suspended won't help them). I think 86 will be enough
I cant take much more of this all I keep thinking about is will Watford go up this year?soon as I wake up to the minute I go to sleep.Will we get autos or will I have to go through the play offs again.Its driving me mad I don't think I could handle going to wembly after last time.There will be so many twists and turns yet I just hope that Watford get the luck they deserve after all the refs we have had this season.The amount of pens muff has been given is a ****ing joke plus all the players we have had sent off.Muff have played against 10 men in a lot of games and keep getting given pen after pen someones getting paid.
I have a feeling that Muff will have an unfair penalty and red lose them the playoff final and sky will keep on about it every time Brentford or whoever plays in the PL the following season.
As Burgundy says, we wont win our remaining 5 but nor will the others either. The pressure will increase with each game, not just for us. I can see us getting 10 points starting with a draw against Millwall on Saturday. I can also see us losing against Forest or Brighton unfortunately. In better news, the others will let the pressure get to them too so I still think we'll go up in 2nd behind Bournemouth who are simply having a freak season.
Norwich have won the last three. Can anybody tell me how many teams have won 8 games in a row since the Championship began? I would guess very, very few. They also have key player Johnson suspended for two games, scorer of both goals this weekend, so hopefully they will slip up, even before their game against Boro. Matching what Norwich and Boro do (and scoring 2 more goals than Norwich) will (almost certainly) see up promoted. I would say Norwich’s games left are harder than ours, plus I would say our strikers coming off the bench will be key, to really grill defenders who mentally are on holiday. Boro are only a point behind, but have to play the next two without Leadbitter, and should have taken a bit of a mental blow this weekend. Hopefully, like Norwich, they will have slipped up a little before their game on the 17th, where a draw could see us in pole position for promotion. I would be very surprised if 4 wins didn’t get us promoted.
Btw to answer Mike's question...longest winning runs this season by the contenders Bournemouth 6 Norwich 6 Us 3 Boro 5 Derby 3
Anyone with some excel table under hand could tell me how many points gained on the total possible Bournemouth, Norwich and us against the teams outside the first eight? On memory I'd say we should be at about 90% efficiency in "no-head-to-head" games. I wonder how are the opponents.
B'muff's hardest potential fixture is this Saturday. South coast bragging rights. Don't discount that factor. I don't expect B'muff to win that especially seeing as Brighton are enjoying a bit of a resurgence under Hughton. They could easily lose it. Narch have three tricky games on the trot. Imho they will get 5 or 6 points there. We will get a minimum of seven from our next three. That should see us just behind, level or ahead of B'Muff with two to go and a bit ahead of Narch. Who would you rather have at the helm right now? The canny Slav who's been through the mill and won his national championship already? The Alan Tracy look-alike with his clipped vowels, yet to win anything of consequence and lead choreographer at Aqualung F.C.? A jumped up wee leprechaun from Buckfast drinking land? Or a bloke from the strange country of 'Basque' which very few people understand and a weird haircut? No-brainer eh?
Good to see we're back in a place where liking each other's posts is (even conditionally) possible. Same here. I've always been a bridge-mender. I suspect you are too.
This website has a number of options... This is clubs verses the top 8: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2014-2015/versus-top-third And the bottom 8: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2014-2015/versus-bottom-third Against top half: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2014-2015/versus-top-half And bottom half: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2014-2015/versus-bottom-half
Nice, thanks exactly what I needed. I played with excel, subtracted matches and points against top 8 to see what against lower two third. In those Bournemouth gained 56/81 points, efficiency 69% Norwich gained 52/84 points, efficiency 62% Watford gained 63/81 points, efficiency 78% Middlesbrough gained 55/87 points, efficiency 63%. IF (a very big "if", I know) these efficiency stats should continue this way: 15*69%= 10,35 15*62%= 9.3 15*78%= 11.7 15*63%= 9.45 Thus my "extremely accurate" prediction for final table is: Watford 87.7 points Bournemouth 87.35 points Norwich 85.3 points Middlesbrough 84.45 points. :]]
using the last ten games as form then divided by 2: muff = +18/2 = 9 Narch = +23/2 11.5 WFC = + 20/2 = 10 Boro = 15/2 = 7.5 Derby = 12/2 = 6 WWFC = 23/2=11.5 Brentford = 18/2 = 9 Ip****e = 11/2=5.5 so: Narch 87.5 Muff 86 WFC 86 Boro 83.5 WWFC 82.5 Brentford 79 Derby 77 Ip****e 73.5
I admire people's optimism but crazy as though it sounds, I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility of both Norwich and Bournemouth winning all their remaining games. Bournemouth are bang back on form and apart from that freak result against Wigan, Norwich have scarcely dropped a point under their new manager. It could end up being like that SPL title tussle back in 2003 where Rangers won the league by one goal, and over the closing weeks it was less a question of which games either Celtic or Rangers would slip up in, but how many goals they'd win by. Also, looking at Norwich's last five games, lest people forget we've already played exactly the same fixtures they have left, and got a 100% record in all of them - who's to say Norwich won't do the same? They're in even better form than us and have been unbeaten away longer with more wins. Despite some people's claim that Muff have the easiest run-in, I'm actually looking at them as the team to catch more than Norwich. Brighton, Reading and Charlton are all unpredictable opponents and between have had their fair share of good results against the top teams (Brighton drawing at Norwich, us and Wolves and beating Derby, Reading winning at Boro and Wolves, and doing the double over Norwich, Charlton beating Norwich away, us and Derby at home, drawing at Wolves). The question is: if this scenario, however unlikely, becomes a real possibility over, say, the next two or three games, how would you approach this in Joka's position? Would you try to drill the point home, in case the players haven't already grasped it, that winning all five might not be enough, and encourage them to really go for it (but only when we're at least 2-0 up with 20 minutes to go, or 3-0 after an hour, to avoid getting needlessly caught on the counter)? Or just aim for 5 out of 5 by whatever means, confident in the knowledge that by the law of averages at least one of our top two rivals is bound to slip up at least once. I'm not sure - this is football and if there's anything I've learnt from following it (especially a club like Watford) for over 15 years it's never assume anything. I think this team ought to be playing to win and to win big from the outset, and with no disrespect to Millwall, who still have a real chance of survival after looking dead and buried not so long ago, next Saturday is when it begins.
