£10 into £2000 in 365 days

PSG losing too.

 

Awful day, my apologies.

 

I’m afraid I won’t be able to post on Saturday night as i’ll most likely be out, so once again i’ll be putting both Saturdays and Sundays bets up tonight. The Austrian game was a complete disaster, despite the stats and everything pointing to a win for our team. PSG could only draw, even when playing against 10 men for the last 20 minutes of the match. But on the plus side, Blanc plays his full backs very very high up the pitch, leaving PSG very open to the counter. I can see us winning a few bets backing against PSG this season.

Day 10

Balance: £10.46

Danish SAS Ligaen Esbjerg v Aarhus
10-08-2013 16:00
Win-Draw-Win
Esbjerg @ evens

Stake: 60p

Both teams are quite evenly matched form wise and it would initially be hard to pick a winner here, until you look a bit deeper that is. Esbjerg have an irresistible home form, winning 8 out of their last 10 home games, conceding just 6 times in those 10 games (2 of those were in the 6-2 smashing they gave Odense). I don’t expect Esbjerg to cruise to a win here, but certainly see them winning 1-0 or 2-1. Evens is a great price considering their home record, hopefully they can do a job for us here!

Finnish Veikkausliiga JJK Jyvaskyla v FF Jaro
10-08-2013 14:00
Both Teams To Score
No @ 11/10

Stake: 50p

When I looked at the table for this game, I thought about taking the Jaro win, then I looked at the recent form and changed my mind to go for under 2.5 goals. Upon checking the odds I found they were 4/6, too low for us to take. I did find one bet I liked the look of. Both teams to score no, 3 out of 4 of Jaros last away games have ended 0-0, including this exact fixture (JJK at home as well) just a week and a half ago. JJK have only scored 4 goals in their last 5 home games (and 2 of them were in the same game against the team just above them in the league). Expecting this game to either end 0-0 again or a 1-0 win to Jaro.

Day 11:

Was initially going to go for 2 bets today, but couldn’t decide which to leave out, so opting for 3 bets instead!

Swedish Allsvenskanliga Syrianska v IFK Gothenborg
11-08-2013 14:00
Win-Draw-Win
IFK Gothenborg @ 4/5

Stake: 75p

The odds for this are somewhat confusing. I’ll admit that Gothenborg haven’t got the greatest away form at the moment (won 1 out the last 5 away league games), but Syrianska are terrible, whether it be home or away, losing two-thirds of their 18 games played so far. Considering Gothenborg are 4th, just 3 points away from 2nd this definitely represents value.

Finnish Veikkausliiga FC Honka v Turku PS
11-08-2013 16:30
Win-Draw-Win
FC Honka @ 5/6

Stake: 50p

Honka have a cracking home record, losing just once all season (Finland are 22 games into their season) and that was to their title rivals HJK. As per usual in Finland, this isn’t gonna be a game of goals, but i’m sure Honka will absolutely dominate the game and try to extend their lead on the top of the table. TPS aren’t that great a team and a destined for a mid-table finish, and haven’t won in any of their last 5 away games.

Swedish Allsvenskanliga Helsingborg v Norrkoping
11-08-2013 14:00
Handicap Betting
Helsingborg (-1.0) @ 6/4

Stake: 40p

I know Helsingborg aren’t the most popular team round here after the horrible day they helped with when they lost to Djurgardens, but as someone who watches them regularly, I think they can inflict a hammering on Norrkoping. We backed Helsingborg away, they still win a lot away, but that’s nothing compared to their home form. They’ve played 15 home league games in the last year, won 10, drawn 3, lost 2, as well as scoring 42 goals, whilst only conceding 11. I’m positive they can make the handicap here, and these odds are immense.

 

Thanks as always reids.

I think seeing his explanations of things will help keep confidence. Surely 2 bad days a week won't keep happening.

 

Not sure, but i'm sure they realise the way I do things is better than 95% of all the tipping pages people use on Facebook. Someone in my group did the maths earlier, and if we carry on at the same success rate as the have done so far (although this was before todays bets!), we'll be on £1404 after a year.

 

why would you give up after just over a week? mental, unless you have a really short attention span and demand instant results. damn it, what am i saying reids your fired! get in holloway quick.

 

it must just be because they get bored of putting daily bets on.

 

I like that. Gives me something to do and games to keep an eye on throughout the day that otherwise id not be interested in.

 

we won on both bets today. very nice. lets hope tomorrow goes well too.

 

I thought we lost, it was just that my account wasn't updating.

EDIT: Also i keep getting random £1 free bets on paddypower but I don't know why?

 

To keep you gambling, many of my friends that have started this receive them as well. Although I haven't had one for months!

 

I'm not complaining.

 

Helsingborg have a few injuries I think, couple of people that usually start for them aren't in the team or bench, including their top scorer David Accam. Shame, hopefully it's still on for us to win though, will need a couple of goals in the 2nd half though!

 

Not sure, they're usually very reliable (won 11 out of their 18 games played so far, meeting -1 handicap in 8 of those wins). Only since we've started backing them that they've gone downhill. Need to try and find why Accam didn't play today and if he's injured, how long he'll be out for. Wouldn't surprise me if he moved to a bigger European league in the next few weeks though, he makes this league look very easy.

 

I have faith that we will make a profit today, any team calling themselves "Honka" deserve to win.

 

Honka take the lead after 9 mins.

Long way to go but it's a good start.

 

Also, upon trying to find out some details about Accam, I found an interesting stat, Helsingborgs 0-0 draw today was their first for 40 games!

Apparently he was "off" http://www.hif.se/Article.aspx?id=eb518ecd-977e-480c-8224-21e4a8faac5e

 

Bit late in joining the party but also following this with interest - good write ups!

 

Day 12:

Balance: £12.23

An absolutely epic weekend saw us win 4 out our 5 bets, not too shabby! The banks increasing daily which is always good, still slow progress at the moment in terms of actual profit but it will come in time, it’s all about playing the slow game, keeping discipline and making steady profit. Tomorrow looks a pretty slow day, but i’ve found 2 bets that I like the look of:

Belarus Premier League FC Minsk v Naftan Novopolotsk
12-08-2013 16:00
Win-Draw-Win
FC Minsk @ 8/11 (not priced up on Bet365 yet for the people using them, most likely priced up tomorrow morning though!)

Stake: 75p

Initially had this down as a non bet, but seeing the limited amount of fixtures and probing a little deeper, I actually think this is a rather good bet, although I would have liked a bit better odds as I don’t think these odds should be as low as 8/11, probably a little closer to evens (around 5/6). Minsk have played 9 home games this season, winning 4, drawing 2 and losing 3. The 3 losses were against the best teams in the league, one of the draws was an understandable draw (not a huge difference in quality between the 2 teams), whilst the other draw was a game Minsk should have won. Naftan have won just 3 games out of their last 20 away games in the league and have only won 2 out of their 19 games so far this season. As a recent benchmark, BATE (in my opinion the best team in the league) have played both teams away within the last month. BATE beat Naftan 5-1 (we had BATE -1 on that game I believe!), whilst BATE beat also Minsk 1-0. I think Minsk will be far too strong for Naftan, and see a 1-0 or 2-0 win to Minsk here.


French Div 2 Matches Brest v Istres
12-08-2013 19:30
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/5

Dutch Jupiler League Matches Jong PSV v Excelsior
12-08-2013 19:00
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/7

Danish SAS Ligaen Sonderjyske v Vestsjaelland
12-08-2013 18:00
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/9

Russian League Matches Arsenal Tula v FK UFA
12-08-2013 16:00
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/7

Stake: 60p
This bet is placed as an accumulator and pays 6/4, great value I believe.

 

4/7 now, obviously not much liquidity on this game, pretty sure only people only ever bet on BATE from this league!

 

Day 12:

Balance: £12.23

An absolutely epic weekend saw us win 4 out our 5 bets, not too shabby! The banks increasing daily which is always good, still slow progress at the moment in terms of actual profit but it will come in time, it’s all about playing the slow game, keeping discipline and making steady profit. Tomorrow looks a pretty slow day, but i’ve found 2 bets that I like the look of:

a 22.3% retrun in 12 days is not to feckin shabby at all Reids, it's feckin brilliant - keep up the good work... if one was playing from £10,000 bank one would be up £2,230...

where can one find that return at a bank etc...

the bookies are going down with the Palsarse, down with palsarse.. their going down with the palsarse..

 

****ing awful day, my bad, couldn't see Naftan scoring at all, let alone twice. Minsk hit the woodwork twice as well according to the stats on William Hill. Bunch of Heskeys. Over 1.5 accy is down as well. Delightful.

 

Balance: 10.88

Awful day today, I couldn’t even see Naftan scoring once, let alone twice, Minsk obviously had their chances as they hit the woodwork twice. Over 1.5 goal acccumulator was let down by the first game, no doubt the rest will go on to be goal-fests now. Ah well, onwards and upwards.. As well as tomorrows i’m also posting Wednesdays bets up now, to ensure we get the best prices before they get hammered in by people placing them tomorrow. You’ll notice there’s quite a few bets, this is due to a couple of reasons, firstly, because there’s so many selections I like, and secondly there’s no bets I fancy on Thursday, so Wednesday will hopefully make up for missing a day, however usual service is resumed on Thursday evening.

Day 13:

Swiss Challenge League FC Wil 1900 v FC Wohlen
13-08-2013 18:45
Handicap Betting
FC Wil 1900 (-1.0) @ 15/8

Stake: £0.40

Wil have started the season strongly, winning 3 out of their opening 4 games, this league isn’t usually one i’m comfortable taking on handicaps in, they’re usually very close games (even though there’s plenty of goals). But sadly we were priced out of the win (Wil were 8/13), but I reckon the price for this is decent enough for the risk if you take a look at Wils recent results, 2 of their games they’ve won this season they’ve won 3-0, and both of the teams they beat are either side of Wohlen in the table, so i’m happy for a small stake on this.

Day 14

International Friendlies Iraq v Chile - Neutral
14-08-2013 17:30
Alternative Handicap
Chile (-1.0) @ 5/6

Stake: 75p

I love International games, because there’s so much quality in all the teams, you get some crazy prices sometimes, this is one of them. An absolute no-brainer this. A quick look at the FIFA rankings (although don’t read too much into these!) shows Chile at 21st in the world and Iraq at 104th. A look at the teams shows the real difference. Out of the 20 players in the Iraq squad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_national_football_team#Current_squad), only 3 play outside of the Iraqi league, one in the Swedish second division, one in the Qatari league and the other in Turkey. Compare that to the Chilean team (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chile_national_football_team#Current_squad) and it all begins to look a bit one sided. Alexis Sanchez will most likely be the main man up front for Chile, and would certainly expect him to get a goal here.

International Friendlies Switzerland v Brazil
14-08-2013 19:45
Handicap Betting
Brazil (-1.0) @ 15/8

Stake: 0.75p

I’ve been stressing about this bet ever since the prices were released, Brazil were priced as 8/11 for the win, which would usually be a lump job for me (was contemplating a £1 stake for the challenge), but seeing how quickly we change prices, I opted against that, and was going to split the planned £1 stake into 50p for the win, and 50p for the -1, but i’ve now changed my mind again, and gone for solely the -1 with a half-way stake. Switzerland are an odd team, they’ve got established regulars who are quickly aging, and some great young talents (Xhaka + Shaqiri) but not much in-between. Brazil are largely taking the same squad that won the Confederations cup, including Neymar, Hulk, Lucas, Bernard, Alves etc etc. If that team can beat Spain 3-0, then almost 2/1 for -1 handicap against Switzerland seems an absolute steal.

International Friendlies Colombia v Serbia - Neutral
14-08-2013 19:00
Win-Draw-Win
Colombia @ 19/20

Stake: 0.60p

Serbia have a strong defence, made up of players playing for some of the best teams in Europe, however they lack options upfront in my opinion, Colombia on the other hand have a relatively decent team throughout, with Falcao and Muriel up front, with Rodriguez just behind and Armero and Zuniga bombing it up the flanks, they should overwhelm the usually strong Serbian defence (who have conceded goals against Cyprus and Chile quite recently, so are certainly vunerable!). For the price this is a strong bet.

International Friendlies Ecuador v Spain
14-08-2013 21:00
Second Half Handicap - MAKE SURE IT’S SECOND HALF HANDICAP AND NOT FULL GAME
Ecuador (+1.0) @ 4/5

Stake: 50p

I’m proud of the research into this bet, and i’ll be doubly as pleased if it wins as well. Ecuadors ground is very very high (over 2000m above sea level), this effects the body dramatically, as the air is much thinner, therefore is less effective. Big breaths do nothing to help and many many teams have come here and failed to come away with anything, Ecuador have lost 1 game in their last 10 games at home, and that was a 4-2 loss to Germany (all of Germanys goals were scored in the first 25 minutes, and both of Ecuadors goals were in the 2nd half) and their last game here was a 1-1 draw against Argentina (complete with Messi + Aguero). Ecuadors players are used to this height, with lots of them playing locally. I certainly wouldn’t back against Spain to win overall, but I imagine they’ll get very very tired in the second half and start to struggle, and with that comes the chances for an Ecuadorian goal, we’ve seen many times that Spain are vunerable at the back, and in this altitude, Ecuador will come at them in the second half when Spain are tiring.

International Friendlies Hungary v Czech Republic
14-08-2013 19:30
Win-Draw-Win
Czech Republic @ 8/5

Stake: 40p

Not much of a writeup for this bet, but Czech Republic have the far superior squad, form, overall results and pretty much everything is in their favour, a mental price!

 

Thanks Reids as usual. Amazing to think even with all the bets today it's still at a profit if all of them lose.

 

Oh for sure 22% profit is good, but I was meaning in actual money, £2 isn't a great deal. But if we carry on at the same rate, then it will soon add up to £££.

 

Really looking forward to Wednesdays bets, not wanting to put a jinx on things, but internationals are one of my specialities, placed a bet on every game at the Confederations Cup and lost only one bet (bets were around the same odds as the ones I usually do, nailed results + handicaps every game except Japan vs Mexico) and won this beauty in February: http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/7325/aah4.jpg