Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 2

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 17, 2022.

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Day 2 lynching

Poll closed Nov 17, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    7.7%
  2. Cthulhu

    53.8%
  3. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. miked2006

    7.7%
  6. nornironhorn

    7.7%
  7. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. TomWatfordFC

    7.7%
  10. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. wfcmoog

    15.4%
  12. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. With A Smile

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    All 3 messages came from active players, yes.

    Down to you all to work it out from here, one of those messages is not from the seer or the wolf, that's all I will say.
     
  2. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    When you're in a teams meeting and trying to keep up on the side....

    My first thought was message 1 - the wolf just took the name from what i thought was the seers message yesterday and named them evil
    The 2nd message is similar to the 1st message yesterday, which i thought was the seer. (why would the wolf post 1st & a clue)
    3rd Message - What the 4ell ! - Mind blown
     
  3. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Wow... Lots to catch up on! Will digest the thread over lunch.
     
  4. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I agree - if any team has been given extra “help” after yesterday, it will be Team Evil.
     
  5. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    How does it normally work? I thought the moon transformation happened after the evening's kills? Genuinely don't know!
     
  6. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Anyhow, little point trying to work anything out, it's pot luck now and I've shelved my earlier thinking when there were just two messages.

    There'll be no attempt to use logic or probability today as there are too many unknowns. To be honest, I'll probably just go with the majority and certainly won't be leading anything.
     
  7. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I don’t know - it’s usually in the write up somewhere but I think that maybe I read too much into the wolf looking at the moon as others think it would be more obvious than that. I had assumed that we started with two wolves and a traitor but it may be that we started with three wolves and there was no full moon. Or that Harrow was the traitor and not a wolf. As usual with this game, I started off today feeling confident about my logic and now I’m just going round in circles. Plus, I’m not getting anything done that I’m supposed to be doing today!
     
  8. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I had to write it out as it just seemed to illogical

    Day 1 – message 1 - nornironorn is Good
    Day 1 – Message 2 – Ashdon is Good
    Day 2 – Message 1 - nornironorn is Evil, Ashdon is Good
    Day 2 – Message 2 - nornironorn is Good, wfcmoog is Evil
    Day 2 – Message 3 – wfcmoog is Good, nornironorn is Good

    If we have had 2 messages from one team, do we get another from the other to balance it up ?

    Basically all we know is that none of us like Otter!
     
  9. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Wow, what a twist. Just as it felt like we were getting somewhere.

    We either have two seers or two evils that can post messages?
     
  10. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Instead of doing anything productive today, I’ve just had a look at all the anonymous messages alongside one another. I know there is a danger in getting too caught up in the style, etc of the posts but, if I was a betting man, I would say that Message 2 today is the one written by someone who didn’t write one yesterday and that Message 3 has been written by the person who wrote that they viewed nornironhorn on day 1.
     
  11. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    What are your thoughts? You’ve been quiet this game.
     
  12. Blimey. I was struggling to keep up this week so 2 messages was enough but 3 is breaking my brain.

    Anyone know of any historic roles that can message besides the seer and wolf?

    Which message style looks different to both of yesterday's so we can rule that to be the new role and maybe try to understand their message more?
     
  13. Can someone post all 5 messages together?
     
  14. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    I agree with this word for word.
     
  15. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Working theory:

    Otter has allowed the traitor a one off chance to imitate the Seer. Can't see there being three messages every day as would be impossible and if it was a second Seer surely they would've made mention of that?

    The traitor has had to play the card today as one of the wolves was viewed by the genuine Seer so they're trying to get them off the hook.

    But really, who knows?
     
  16. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Caught up and well and truly baffled! In general agreement that the first message is likely the wolf. As for the other two - who knows!?!
     
  17. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    So behind today. About to take a work toilet break to catch up on this!
     
  18. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    So, by this logic, do you think the first message is the genuine one?
     
  19. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I wouldn't call it logic! Might try and look later but don't think there's much for us to go on.
     
  20. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Trying to look at attendances records for the two days of posts. Failing
     
  21. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    This is what Otter put in the rules

    So we may get another message by 2 !
     
  22. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I don't have a clue what to think.
     
  23. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    In the office today so less active, apologies.

    I think the first two messages are from someone on Team Evil.

    I'm sure the third message is our seer from yesterday. I think both of the other messages are from evil.

    The latter message is the same as yesterday's seer message so I think whoever wrote the non-Alpha message in the first two has made a mistake by naming moog. I assume Otter gave team evil a 'wildcard' message or something like that - but they used it too soon and the seer has already cleared the person named.

    I know I'm good, and I'm fairly confident moog is good.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  24. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Message 1 is the alpha, message 2 is a wildcard from team evil, and message 3 is the seer.

    The seer purposely put the person they viewed in inverted commas yesterday - message 3 did that but not message 2.

    Who does this mean we should vote for? I'm not sure.

    I would have thought moog was the traitor based on trying to save Harrow but he wouldn't have made it as obvious as he did by voting first. Plus, I now believe the seer has cleared him.

    Cthulhu was keen for us not to vote Harrow yesterday:
    "if inactives are voted off anyway no point lynching them either"

    They changed their mind after though and voted Harrow. Currently, Cthulhu leads my suspicion as the traitor.
     
  25. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Right, this is sound to a point, except, I'd argue that the last message is most likely to be the Seer and as such, we/you would lynch two good players, whilst evil pick off 2 good players a night in kills, thus leaving evil to pretty much have won by day 5.

    Sorry but I feel like you're a little to eager to push the village down a road which could lead to our destruction.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2022
  26. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I concur.
     
  27. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    To me our options are:

    Lynch me - Do this if you believe message 2 yesterday was the seer. Message 1 today (which named me evil) is from the same person as Message 2 yesterday. I outlined my reasons why Message 2 is unlikely to be the seer in the thread yesterday - no-one seemed to disagree.

    Lynch Moog - Do this if you believe message 2 today is from the seer, and message 1 yesterday was from the seer. I.e do this if you believe they are written by the same person.

    Lynch someone else for being suspicious. - Do this if you believe message 1 yesterday was the seer, and message 3 today was the seer.

    For comparison, here is message 1 yesterday - which I believe to be from the seer:

    Message 2 today:

    Message 3 today has quotes around it, same as message 1 yesterday.
    Message 2 today capitalises GOOD whereas message 1 yesterday and message 3 today don't.
    Message 1 yesterday and message 3 today have short, single line sentences, message 2 today doesn't.

    The only uncertainty I have is, I have no idea why a wildcard evil player would use their message before the other two have been sent...
     
  28. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I'm probably going to go with my hunch and vote cthulhu.

    EDIT: I think he could be a traitor, probably unlikely to be a wolf
     
  29. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Anonymous Message #1 (received 10:37)

    Morning on this rainy day villagers. Your seer here.

    Today much is clearer. Earlier I viewed Nornironhorn. He is Evil. Yesterday I viewed Good Ashdon.

    Hopefully the player I pick tomorrow will also be right

    Anonymous Message #2 (received 11:24)

    Good Morning Comrades.

    Your Seer speaking. What a great start to the week. I wasn’t able to help on day 1 taking a stab in the dark and viewing nornironorn who was GOOD.

    It was hard today as no-one was defending Harrow or acting out of favour. But this morning it was suggested that I should view Moog and Moog themselves said that at this stage they would vote for themselves. So I took their advice and Moog is confirmed EVIL.

    Confirmation:

    nornironorn – day 1 – GOOD

    Moog – day 2 - EVIL

    If ever there was a moment to grace an occasion like this, at a venue like this. 12,701.

    Anonymous Message #3 (received 12:00 noon)

    “Good Afternoon Compatriots.

    Your Seer speaking. I have decided to view ‘wfcmoog’ today.

    Ordinarily I would have to report that this isn’t much use to us, as I can confirm that wfcmoog is in fact, Good.

    HOWEVER, It seems we have some additional roles to complicate things further!

    Let me just say, I was certainly not expecting that second message so patience in posting has paid dividends.

    Today I viewed moog as this seemed like a popular demand amongst the village.

    I viewed nornironorn yesterday, confirming he was good. My rationale there was that he was the game’s first poster.

    It’s a hat-trick today! It’s a day he’ll never forget. 19,059.”
     
  30. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Any reason why Message 3 is the only one in speech marks @Otter or am I over analysing as usual?
     
  31. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Message 1 yesterday was in speech marks too.
     
  32. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I still have no idea, but have to vote by 10 to 6.

    Someone managed to work out yesterday, how many posts each player had made - can they do this again ?
     
  33. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    And ...

    Does anyone have an idea what these codes mean ?


    That is a chip of the very tasty variety. 19,058
    If ever there was a moment to grace an occasion like this, at a venue like this. 12,701.
    It’s a hat-trick today! It’s a day he’ll never forget. 19,059.
     
  34. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Yup just noticed, in that case, for now I would assume M1 yesterday and M3 today are the same person.
     
    TomWatfordFC likes this.
  35. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    When revealing the code in the past I've been told it's a Team Evil thing to do, so I'm hesitant but pretty sure it's common knowledge the numbers are match attendance figures.
     
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