Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 2

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 17, 2022.

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Day 2 lynching

Poll closed Nov 17, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    7.7%
  2. Cthulhu

    53.8%
  3. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. miked2006

    7.7%
  6. nornironhorn

    7.7%
  7. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. TomWatfordFC

    7.7%
  10. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. wfcmoog

    15.4%
  12. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. With A Smile

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Sorry I have been busy all day. Just catching up.
     
  2. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Interesting, I didn't realise that.

    Possibly suspicious that in the 3rd message today then only increased the attendance by one?

    Having done some googling for those figures, I can't see relevant attendance figures anywhere though.
     
  3. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Glenn Hoddle chip in 83?
     
  4. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Attendance was over 21k though
     
  5. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    There was me going through stadium capacities rather than attendances!
     
  6. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    4 hours to vote.
     
  7. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    On my "Morning" logic yesterday, a reminder about those who started their messages yesterday with Morning

    Me - named by the morning message
    Dom
    Ashdon- named by the morning message
    Horace
    SLB
    HH24
    WaS

    Horace & HH24 started their messages today with Morning.

    SLB & WaS messaged very early today, but didn't start with Morning.

    Did SLB & WaS get nervous after I pointed out the coincidence in their messages yesterday with that of the Alpha?

    Or have I gone mad?

    Probably the latter.

    I'm currently suspicious of Cthulhu, WaS & SLB.
     
  8. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Number of days since something?
    19059 was the 12th September 1970 if its gone up a day.

    Absolutely no idea other than that on what to even start with
     
  9. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    This afternoon is really skating away from me, apologies for the lack of input. WFH tomorrow, so hoping to be more active then (if I am still en route to Qatar and not holed up in a wadi somewhere!)

    For what it’s worth, I’m inclined to agree with the theories regarding certain messages and speech marks being from the same author.

    It doesn’t help me make up my mind about my intended lynch vote, but I agree with the logic at this stage.

    Will jump back on to read up properly on my way home.
     
  10. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Got to be honest, I havnt got a clue where to start at the moment. Seems most likely that moog and norn are good, but could they be reverse tinkers lol! Who knows when otter is running the game!

    I won’t be voting for either I don’t think.
     
  11. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I think we need some more people throwing about wild theories and accusations.

    The game is too dull if people just follow a crowd.
     
    TomWatfordFC likes this.
  12. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I think norn, moog and myself are good. Other than that it’s open season and I can be easily led by a rogue theory.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  13. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    A crowd. So it is attendance then?
     
  14. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Also looked at that too. Wikipedia has an archive of notable events from each day in recent history, but nothing stood out to me.
     
  15. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I'll need to vote shortly.

    Anyone I vote for will just be based on my above ramblings. I appreciate we have nothing concrete to go on unless we lynch moog.

    There are a lot of players who have gone through 2 days saying very, very little. This is wolf behaviour.

    If I don't survive the night (I expect I'll get killed as most are in agreement that I'm likely good), then take a look at WaS, SLB & Cthulhu...
     
  16. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I've a work quiz after 5. It probably won't start on time but I can't be sure so I'm going to go ahead and vote now.

    I'll likely still be on for a bit, but if someone suggests a pint before the quiz I'll be away...

    I'm voting Cthulhu. Based on very little beyond a small hunch he might be the traitor.

    Ideally I would have liked to hold off a bit as me going early allows people to just follow the crowd, but needs must.
     
  17. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I know this is a cliché, but I've been busy all day and going to work drinks soon.

    Three options:
    NI – and work out NI's status, Ashdon’s status and which style of message is correct
    Moog - and work out Moog’s status
    Random - work out the status of a 25% shot in the dark
     
  18. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Afternoon ! :)

    Let's be honest none of us have a clue or have a clue where to start. I'm not even sure there is enough to even come up with a theory of any sort. I think at the moment the only thing I have an feeling of certainty is that Ashdon is good
     
  19. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    There's plenty of logic from yesterday that would suggest the initial message was the seer, which would clear me. I also feel its unlikely an alpha named themselves on Day 1 (of course, Ashdon could still be evil, but not the alpha).
     
  20. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Why do you think this? If the message that named him yesterday was the seer - why did they seemingly wait for the first message to come through? And then view someone completely different straight away?

    If the message that named him was the alpha (most likely case), then he could still be the traitor or the beta (although the beta/traitor could have been Harrow).
     
  21. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    So...

    The two "Comrades" messages are clearly from the same person.

    The difficulty is in deciphering which of the two coded messages (2 and 3 today) is from the same person as yesterday. The fact that the style has been copied shows someone is trying to mislead us, you wouldn't try and do that if it was the wolf message.

    Therefore I'm leaning towards the Comrades messages being the Alpha.

    This means that Norniron is Good. And then we have two messages, one saying Moog is Evil, one saying he's Good.

    If the Seer was Message 3, surely they would've mentioned the fake Seer trying to copy the code and why it wasn't correct?

    Leaning towards Message 3 being the fake Seer.
     
  22. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I'm also confused as to why the number they put at the end of the message was one digit out. Maybe voting for moog wouldn't be the worst idea.

    If this was the case, and message 2 today was the seer - can the seer please ensure greater consistency in their messages tomorrow?
     
  23. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I did mention earlier, I don't know why a fake seer would go before a real seer...

    Plus, the real seer may not have been as strict in their formatting once they realised the wolf wasn't trying to copy them (message 1).

    moog is the traitor.

    EDIT: to clarify, I'm being a bit facetious with my posts. I've no idea who we should lynch. In reality we have next to nothing to go on so we just have to hope we get lucky tonight.
     
  24. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Yeah, I'd stick your morning "logic" in the bin.
     
  25. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    You would say that...
     
  26. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    This reeks of nonsense and someone trying overly hard to justify a panicked message.
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  27. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Because it's nonsense! Haha
     
  28. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    The consensus (and some logic i.e. why would a genuine message 3 seer not even address the fact someone was trying to imitate their code?) seems to suggest the Comrades messages are the alpha.

    Moog was named Evil then another message arrives trying to clear him. He didn't want us to lynch Harrow yesterday and voted early for Ashdon.

    Seems a good fit for the traitor.
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  29. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    One message said it was rainy?

    Why?
     
  30. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    This is, admittedly, much better logic than my ramblings from earlier.
     
  31. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I think it's pretty clear.

    Either I'm evil, Norn is evil, we're both evil or we are both good.
    What did I do to dissuade anyone from voting for Harrow, (who, let's be clear was lynched by default, not because we had reason to suspect him at that point).
     
  32. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    A further point to consider is that Moog voted early for Ashdon but after six people had confirmed/suggested they would vote for Harrow he posted that on reflection, he would've voted for Harrow. Trying to row back after he knew his wolf buddy was toast and had forgotten to play the game?
     
  33. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    This isn't correct - don't take me down with you!

    If you are evil, then I'm confirmed good - message 2 today would be the truthful message.
     
  34. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    That is included in the first option
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  35. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Sounds like you're simply twisting facts to reach a settled conclusion
     
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