The Championship 2020-21

Yes it would be better to keep Deulofeu Welbeck and the likes but the team posted above with the reserves on would do fine imo I think your giving this league to much credit

I think if we keep the numbers and players that want to be here that would get us over the line. Long slog where we will need depth

Thinking back to years we done well in championship 2 or 3 stand out players is what done well for us. Under hoofers young king joka Abdi Troy Gomes ok the squads of past dug deep especially our last season in this league


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I hope we keep Welbeck, he seemed at long last back to some sort of fitness during the 9 game run in, and if he maintains that form he will be very big for us this season. I hope he at least stays until the January window also I hope that Duelofeu does as well, I think they possibly both owe us that little bit of loyalty, especially Welbeck, as for Duelofeu I doubt anyone will be willing to pay us top dollar on him until he is over his current injury anyway.

Therefore them staying until January at least, would possibly be the best solution all round, both for them and for WFC. As the players will be able to put themselves in the shop window and hopefully the club would get more money for them as a result.

 

I agree with you on most, except the end part.

With us supposedly stating we want £30mil for Doucoure, to raise £50mil from the rest wont be hard.

Deulofeu £20mil
Pereyra £10mil
Deeney £5mil
Welbeck £5mil
Femenia £5mil
Janmaat £5mil

There’s your £80mil right there and none of them overpriced. Ok maybe Janmaat overpriced because of his injury record, but I can see teams paying more than £5mil for Deeney, Welbeck and Femenia.

 

I agree. Ken Sema will also likely leave for in the region of £10m and there are rumours that Pussetto could return to Udinese for £7m or so. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see one of Dawson or Kabasele leave for £5m+.

 

You keep mentioning him for £20m but who will buy a bloke still on the way back from a very bad injury especially when most teams are needing to be a bit more careful

 

We'll see. The prices might be fair but might not be achievable in this market. For example if Everton buy Allan and Don't increase their bid for Doucoure we'll end up having to take what we can get from elsewhere. Buyers know we need to raise some cash and we can't be left with a demotivated player in the championship sulking round the place devaluing so he'll go to the highest bidder. If Pereyra goes to Udinese that's not really new cash generated, they could just lend us that money. GD, well lets see if there are still buyers out there at £20m by the time he proves his fitness, assuming he does....

Bournemouths players were in greater demand and they will have already raised that figure from just the sales of Ake and Brooks so may have some spare cash for replacements.

 

If we're doing approximate player values when sold:

Femenia - £2.5m
Janmaat - £4m
Doucoure - £25m
Pereyra - £10m
Deulofeu - Loan with option to buy of £22m
Welbeck - £8m
Deeney - £5m
Pussetto - £7m (If rumours have legs in it. I doubt they do honestly)

Collectively that's £83.5m, but we don't need to reach a figure anything like that much currently.

Don't see Dele-Bashiru being deemed good enough yet to replace Chalobah so he will stay.

 

With the transfer window open internationally until 5th October and domestically until 16th October, someone will panic buy him.

If he’s back in training before then, which seems likely based on the progress he has made, then he will be gone. We won’t sell him on the cheap.

As far as wingers go he’s probably worth £30-40mil realistically, but in today’s market and with us needing sell those who don’t want to be here, we will easily get £20mil for him. There will be enough desperate clubs at the end of the window who will pay up.

 

I would say that in today's market the panic buying may not happen as clubs need to be a lot more careful.

 

As the window gets closer to closing there’s always teams that start to panic. Someone will match what we’re asking for him.

 

But by then half of Europe could be in lockdown as the pandemic flares up as kids go back to school and we start the autumn. Clubs may be battening down the hatches, to save themselves. Hope not, but i doubt many clubs will splashing the cash about In September.

I suppose really though it is irrelevant what we get for players. It is what our competitors in the Championship do to strengthen their squads. Brentford just bought a centre half from Northampton. i have no idea if his any good, and Brentford do seem to recruit well, but hopefully demonstrates that the teams we will be vying for a top 6 finish with are not going to have much of a budget to make them more competitive

 

Or more likely we start to panic as we know we must get rid, time is running out and end up accepting a much lower offer.

 

Given the level of external debt Pozzo has racked up I'd say it's very relevant that we get as good a price as possible for the players we do need to sell. Doucs/Delefeou for the pair could be anything £30m to £50m - makes a big difference to our financial outlook.

 

The clubs debt situation is not currently a problem. Certainly not for the owners who are earning an extremely good rate of interest on the loans they have made to the club. while of course player trading value is important. the club needs to get the best value it can for players sold. The financial imperative now is to maintain and increase revenue that services that debt through promotion. This is quite a good summary of the business https://financialfootballnews.com/watford-fcs-2019-finances-richarlison-riches/

 

I agree it’s not a problem for the owners because most of the debt is external. We have external debt secured against playing assets, the ground and future revenue?

 

I'm pretty sure the amount of loans to the Pozzo family itself is tiny in comparison to the rest of the debt. Gino isn't coining it in through interest payments.

 

The Suarez news this morning is a blow, the way things are going at the moment, I can’t see us going back up at the first attempt

The talent looks to be moving on and what we are left with won’t have the ability, physically or desire to compete at the top over 46 games. I have no confidence that the likes of Sarr or Estupinian will be here beyond the transfer window either.

I have an increasingly bad feeling that we’re going to have an extremely depressing season coming up

 

Its a great summary of the position at the time, assuming we continued as a prem club, and doesn't allow for income loss as a result of CV19 of course.
The fact we had £88m of debt and will lose half of the £114m of TV money (and more in future) is pretty terrifying. We were losing money (pre transfers) on our full prem income, yes there will be some redundancy clauses in contracts but add the £50m+ lost revenue to the debt, factor in the much lower future income with which to cover costs and repay that debt and we will have a real challenge if we don't go back up. This was always going to be the case. So do we gamble, make the losses even bigger but a better hope of promotion, or do we assume the worst, make sure we survive and sell assets at high prices while we can ?

 

We are currently 40/1 to go down on SkyBet at the moment. Bet365 or William Hill aren’t even offering these odds.

The fact SkyBet wouldn’t let me put more than £20 on those odds suggests they are being pretty cautious about those kind of bets right now. Which makes sense as we are not under way yet.

I tend to agree with you. At the moment I don’t see much news that is positive. I think we will struggle more than some would think. Whilst I don’t think (or hope) we will get relegated I don’t mind doing this £20 bet just as insurance and to soften any blow. It worked a treat for me last season.

 

It's starting to look like our bid for promotion will be a 3-5 year plan rather than straight away. Wonder if Duxberry will come out of hiding and give us an update on the club ambitions, I vaguely remember when the Pozzo's took over or near the beginning of their reign he spoke quite often about the 5 year plan to get us promoted.

 

Because of one tweet, that doesn't actually say anything? The club wouldn't tell Leventhal Suarez is in the plans for him to be sold the next week (unless we've got a Richarlison offer).

 

Good luck keeping any half decent players if there's not going to be a serious effort to go up this season. Hopefully we're all overreacting to agent talk and journalistic guesswork.

 

Suarez has scored a few goals in a poor league. Let's not **** the bed over it.

 

Agree-we also owed £52m in outstanding transfer fees (not a point covered in that analysis by Theo) not £27m plus the £28m owed to us in transfer fees (Richarlison) had already been borrowed against by a loan from Santander for £25m. That it was described in the accounts as other creditors and not bank debt was glossed over.

My point is that the gross transfer amounts suggested elsewhere in this thread for player sales will be less after we have had to meet these obligations. These obligations were £94m in 2018 reducing to £52m in 2019. They are not necessarily related to any of the players we might sell but the fact we -in common with a lot of clubs-pay for players in instalments so whilst no details are given in the accounts these probably relate to Gray, GD, Hughes etc

 

When are the next set of accounts due? Could be sorry reading with plenty of managerial compensation, much reduced prize money and only Lukebakio as a player sale. I guess Sarr amortisation will start to filter in as well.

 

When last in EFL we filed our June y/e accounts in December as the rules require them for FFP assessment by 1st December. Once in PL they were filed three to four months later. I think that now we are back in the EFL they have to be filed by 1st December despite them reflecting our year in the PL.

 

If we don't get at least 20 million for Deulofeu, then someone needs sacking. The guy is an excellent talent. If seen some even saying we could let him go for 15 million. Laughable. Even a crack team of David Davis, Chris Grayling and Boris Johnson couldn't **** up that badly.

 

We won't have any cash to pay the auditors so don't expect to ever see any more accounts filed.

 

Unfortunately, they've given the gig to Williamson...

 

We're gonna swap him and 10 million to get Walcott on lone m8.

 

Iwobi I reckon

 

#baller

 

My daughter has external debt secured against her home at more than 4 times her household income. I believe Watford expect the income for 2020/21 to be approximately £52 million. So as long as we have the income to service the debt, for a business our external debt is not yet a problem. Not sure what the rules are for debt to income in football. But if they are planning to get promoted it is not a problem that requires a fire sale now.

So I think the bigger problem is remaining competitive relative to the other 23 teams. I am sure the club could go debt free, by selling assets, but servicing the debt is not yet a bigger priority than achieving promotion.

 

They are getting more than they would investing it on the market

 

While that might be true, if it was such a no brainer than surely they'd have a lot more than £5m invested in this money-printing machine?