I think what nags away at many of us is the ‘what if’ feeling we had during our first relegation season under Pozzo. What if covid hadn’t come, what if maybe we’d recruited a bit better in January, what if we’d held out for a draw at Villa Park (that late winner for them caused a 3 point swing which ultimately did for us), what if goal line technology had worked that day in the Villa v Sheff U match etc That season we were so close to staying up and I think it’s normal even now to look back wistfully and ask if even just a bit more sensible management of the club could have saved us And if it had, where would we be now? I accept the argument that ultimately yes one year we would go still go down, but the trick is surely to delay that as long as possible.
source? Capology has us 13th. Do you really think we had a smaller wage bill than newly promoted Sheff Utd and Norwich?
What do you mean by artificially funded though? Everton’s owner spent too much and then hit the FFP buffers, as far as I’m aware that hasn’t applied to Brighton so they are spending within their allowed means?
Leicester, win the PL in 2016 and an FA Cup 2021 and then relegated 2023. Love to have their Reckless owners.
Certainly within their "allowed means" they just have a richer owner, who can invest/gift more £££s than the Pozzos.
Good conversation going on without unnecessary name calling! One thing I’d add, we all know how much money affects long term results, doubt there’s much debate over that one. Start of every Premier League season you’d argue that there are anywhere between 8-10 teams at genuine risk of relegation. We were always one of those teams based on finances. The amount you can spend on wages doesn’t increase much season on season, so without big backing you have a ceiling. Ours was being one of those 8-10 teams each season. So that’s a 1 in 3 chance of going down. At a guess I’d say 3 years is probably the average amount of time a team stays in the league outside the ‘big’ clubs. We were there for 5 wasn’t we? The owners have royally messed up this last 4 years, but with the resources available to them they arguably outperformed the ‘average’ club.
No doubt that Pussetto's biggest achievement at Watford was spawning this thread. My take is that smaller, poorer clubs have less margin for error every season if they want to stay up. Money means squad depth, more chances in the transfer market, and more room to meaningfully adjust team and manager each January. The longer you stay up the more chance there's poorer teams below you. But if richer teams come up or other owners invest more then staying up gets tougher.
I've said it here before, but my take is that we were lucky in those early years that we had some really crap teams to contend with, Sunderland were towards the end of their spiral out of the Premier League, Hull started their last Prem pre-season with about 8 players, and teams like Newcastle and (most crucially to this tale) Villa didn't get their **** together until the end of our time in the Prem. By the time we got relegated, there were no really crap teams (apart from Norwich who had just come up both times)
I would argue that the EPL is becoming weak again. Realistically the Scum and Sheffield Utd are going to be the weakest teams. Muff aren't great, either are Burnley. Then you have Palarse and Brentford (we are so close to catching them) who have both lost their talisman. Hodgson is a dinosaur, that is bound to end in tears. Brentford are bound to get found out eventually. Instead of Newcastle and Villa being the chaotic clubs you now have Everton. Marco Silva will get found out eventually and if Mitrovic goes, Fulham will struggle. Forest seem to desperately chuck money on loads of players in hope of survival. Hardly seems like a sound long-term strategy either. Wolves will struggle to score goals and it seems that they are on the decline in terms of investment. There are 10 teams that could legitimately get relegated this season imo. Only the mega wealthy 'top 7', Brighton and Aston Villa (due to being very well managed) and probably West Ham probably aren't in danger of relegation this season.
Yes, I think you're right, Sheffield United and the scum are overwhelming favourites for the drop (Sheffield United have done some outstanding business but have also lost key players, the scum look like they're not even trying to stay up), then you've got Forest who stayed up by the skin of their teeth last season but are a bit hamstrung in not being able to buy 2 whole teams again, with Wolves it looks like their owners have lost interest and Everton are Everton. I think Brentford (who of course have their talisman back in January), Palace and Fulham will probably have enough credit, especially with the teams already mentioned in a bit of flux, but we thought we were safe in 2019...
I read somewhere that for the clubs outside of the top 6 or 7 (and possibly Everton somehow) that they are only one bad transfer window away from years of punishment for it. For us the summer of 2019 was abysmal, if I recall we picked up only Dawson and Sarr. Dawson on the face of it was an OK signing but Sarr didn't fit JG's style and was a millstone for years. Add on to that Doucoure wanted to leave and the reported bonus fiasco, August 2019 was a recipe for disaster.
Look back at the squad of 2019-20 and it was criminal what the owner did that year. Chased Sarr all summer, and spent our budget on one player. Our forward options were: Deeney, Welbeck, Gray, Sarr, Success, Pedro, Pussetto, Deulofeu, Pereyra, Penaranda Our midfield options were: Capoue, Doucoure, Hughes, Chalobah, Cleverley, Quina, TDB Now look at what we had at centre back: Dawson, Mariappa, Cathcart, Kabasele The incompetent fools running our club decided we needed Sarr, on top of everything else we had up front. Apart from Dawson, they left the defence alone. We all knew what needed doing but the board thought they knew better. The beginning of our demise. How can we trust someone so stupid to run our club? I think we'll look back at the current window as another disaster, unless they bring in some much needed quality, but I'm losing faith they know what quality looks like or if they have a handle on what's really needed.
Welbeck was also brought in that summer, Pedro didn't come until January, Penaranda was still not eligible for a work permit I think. I agree the fans were crying out for updating the defence and a new striker due to the rapidly aging Deeney. I also think that Gracia should have gone that summer, our league performances weren't great in the last few months of 18/19 and the less said about the cup final the better.
I'm sure that's right re "one bad transfer window". Dawson was on the face of it, a solid/reliable defender. Looked a good signing for the money. Welbeck - ex England/MU/Arsenal - only available for the likes of us due to recent injury issues. Looked an exciting signing but was he really fit...could we get him fit...a gamble which didn't come off. Sarr - an exciting player. Deulofeu & Sarr either side of a fit again Welbeck ??? Yes please..... BUT for c£28m ??? I'm sure the humiliation in the final, bonus dispute, and early defeats were a huge part in killing morale/commitment. Then QSF.... May 2019 to Oct 2019 was a dreadful period and undid all the good work of the previous 7 years and we've shown nothing to suggest we can ever get back to those lofty heights.
Maybe but not easy to sack a manager who has just taken the team to its second ever cup final and highest league finish for 40 odd years.
Gino agrees he should have been sacked before the season stated but instead gave him a four year deal.
I agree. Gracia was not the problem, recruitment was. To retain a largely Championship defence was always going to spell disaster. We were averaging around 65 goals conceded a season, which was disastrous and needed rectifying in the market. The board ignored all the warning signs and blew the budget on a vanity signing. Had we signed a couple of strong CB’s, and they were around as Burnley and Brighton found plenty, we’d have stayed up comfortably that year.
I think it was something like 4 years plus a 3 year option. I think it was something crazy like 7 years they potentially gave him.
We had finished 11th with the 13th best defensive record. It's not as though the defence was rubbish but of course it needed to be refreshed/replaced over time and Gino doesn't like to spend on defenders !! Dawson did look a good signing. I do think cup humiliation and bonus dispute had a big part to play in the lacklustre start.
Really? That's quite a sad post from you. Whatever your reason is, you have far too much time on your hands. Why not post some of my quotes saying we should buy defenders that season, seeing as you're trolling through 4 years of old posts in the attempt to trip someone up. It's very odd what motivates some people on here.
Sorry, I just found it quite funny that you were saying how easy it is to stay up in the PL and how obvious the mistakes were, when you endorsed the signing that is arguably one of the main reasons we're in the situation we're currently in.
Fans are fickle and opinions change depending on the circumstances. Danny Welbeck might have been an excellent signing if we could keep him fit for example.
But, if you insist... This was your transfer window breakdown. Doesn't seem you were too downbeat about the lack of defensive recruitment despite 'everyone knowing what needed doing'...
Four years ago was the height of Gino's power as an owner. I was sceptical about making the signing at the time, which you've not posted, but like most signings we make I will try to initially be onboard (against my better judgement) and make some positive comments about it. Roll on 4 years and Gino's mask as a competent owner is fully unveiled. I would not be true to myself if I tried to spin it that Gino has a master plan and everything in the garden is rosy. It's not, and it's clear (to me at least) that the guy is a chancer and not very good at identifying what a club needs. So for whatever reason, you've scrolled through 4 years of old posts in order to take a cheap shot. I really don't understand why anyone would do this. But if this type of thing makes you happy, then I'm pleased for you.
As I say fans can change minds quickly . We’ve probably all thought new players would be good and they turn not to be . And vice versa.
Exactly, but some think it's an opportunity to make cheap shots. I don't understand it, but I suppose it makes him happy to it, so it's fine with me. If I'm responsible to bringing joy to someone's life, then it's a good thing in my book.
You've given me more laughs over the years than several successful comedians so yes please do keep it up!
