I’ve taken my view directly from an expert. I’ve not made that number up. That was from last year’s accounts and it is a fact. You may want to bury your head and try to down play it, but stating facts is not being alarmist. No one yet knows what the current state of play is for this season, and it would make sense to see a reduction in weekly losses once next year's accounts are published, but I don't for one minute believe the operating losses will be reduced to zero. We will continue to make substantial losses and we will have to sell players in order to keep the lights on. You may not like that highly likely outcome, but you'd better have your eyes open to it.
Forgive me, but didn’t we only turn a profit of circa £25m last season because we sold nearly £60m of players? That doesn’t exactly make the highlighted bit completely outrageous. The main takeaway from the accounts was that we need to sell players at profit every season to survive.
Norwich were there for the absolute taking and we ballsed it up big time. TDB The TDB at right back experiment simply has to end. Looking at the first goal - Porteous is marking Barnes in the first picture as Hernandez is out wide. Hernandez takes Lewis down the line and inside (firstly - poor from Lewis). Porteous gets stuck ball watching and Barnes drifts to the back-post. TDB should either communicate to Porteous that he's lost his man, or he should cover and get goal-side of Barnes. Instead he does neither and gifts Barnes a free header. Poor from 75% of our back 4. Goal number 3 - absolutely miles out of position Goal number 4 - whilst not his fault at all - what do you notice in this picture? His positioning is shocking, he can't defend and whilst he has a nice feint + drop of the shoulder to beat a press - he doesn't even offer us that much offensively. Andrews simply has to start. Martins Martins on the right wing - he's one of our top scorers this season from cutting in from the left - so what we do? Play him on the right which instantly negates one of his best strengths. This could be balanced out if he were to put on more goals for team-mates via crosses on the right than he'd create for himself on the left, but even that's not the case. He's played 17 crosses from the right, with 4 successful crosses (removing the cross that was technically a success as it was picked up by a Watford team-mate, albeit very very deep) - that's a 23.5% success rate. On the left he's played 34 crosses, with 8 successes (removing the over-hit ones that were also technically successful) - which is again a 23.5% success rate. So you're removing his biggest strength, whilst the creative aspect is exactly the same. (red = successful) Solutions A big part of VIs philosophy is crossing - only 3 teams in the league have played more crosses than us (WBA, Stoke + Ipswich) and open play crosses have resulted in 20% of our total goal tally. TDB has attempted 4 crosses from the right (0% success rate) - with 3 of those coming in the same game (Stoke). Andrews hasn't been particularly successful from his crosses, but with 37 crosses taken, it seems a much better fit for VIs system. Likewise on the left, Sema is our best crosser of the ball - so needs to be playing. Martins is a decent enough goal-threat, so ideally needs to be playing. So for me, I'd drop Lewis and move Sema to the LB position, with Martins in front of him. This gives us a good outlet out-wide when Martins cuts in - as you have Sema eagerly awaiting the ball on the flanks to quickly stick a ball into the area (which is something Lewis often hesistates in doing, slowing down our attacks). Yesterday was a waste, I felt we could've come away with the 3 points, but the lineup + decisions VI made cost us the game.
Can we send Lewis back now? He is the most negative player on the team. You know when he gets the ball it's going to go backwards, usually to Hoedt, who will eventually get fed up and launch it (not in itself a bad thing, but if he has no real option these longer balls will start going astray as happened last night). It may be that no one is showing for Lewis, but he appears not to even look.
You kept saying this all the way through our decent run. A stopped clock is right twice a day, at some point we were always going to have a bad run because we are a mid table side. We have good runs and bad runs. You predicting we will have one does not make you Nostradamus
It’s not a made up number no , but it relates to a historic position. You’ve suggested it related to this season . I’m not burying my head as you suggest, I’m using a logical ( non sensational ) approach in looking at what I understand our current costs and revenues are, based on the most recent accounts. I could of course be missing that the overheads havd increased by £15m this year , but all I can take is the current evidence . You can just claim as far as you’re concerned the club is making a massive loss each year , but that’s not his real life works . You make a fairly bold claim, you should expect it to be challenged by actual data . I’m making this point for other people on the forum who might actually believe that the number you are quoting is a known amount relating to this season, rather than just sheer speculation based on no longer relevant data .
The square pegs in round holes part is the only significant part which I think seems the same. Perhaps also that our pressing has fizzled out a bit, but it still wasn't that long ago we were still very much playing at a high intensity and it's only been in the last couple of weeks that some fatigue has caught up with us (albeit even then we were back to being pretty energetic vs Leicester). I don't think he's completely destroyed any of our players' confidence levels either. Sure our players could be a bit bolder in passing the ball through defence and midfield, but it's not as if any of them have been complete shells of themselves as they indicate Hugill was for them.
I agree we will need to sell players absolutely , just like we did pre-Pozzo , but I’m just trying to temper down the claims that we will need to sell £30m players every year when it’s more likely to be £2-3m
You're the one doing the disservice. I'm stating fact, for which for some bizarre reason you are disputing. We were making a £500k per week loss last year. That is a fact. Are you suggesting we we are breaking even now, or maybe we're making huge profits? I think most people with a brain can follow events to see, if we're making huge losses last year, then have we really made operational adjustments to such a degree to swallow up a £26m per annum deficit? I'd say an emphatic no to that question. It's not a bold claim, it's a fairly logical conclusion, that we will have to sell players in order to meet operational costs. To say different is a bold claim from you in an attempt to paper over real issues.....and I'm not sure why you would do that.
What would you expect the average, or a decent, success rate for crosses from a Championship wingers to be? I'm not doubting that his crosses are terrible - I mentioned it already earlier in this thread- but just curious how it compares. We've missed him hugely as he really is the only one of our players capable of consistently putting in a decent cross.
I wonder who was going to trot out the old clock stopped analogy. No surprises to see it was you, Mr original. It's not my fault you cannot see how bad we are and that you were fooled, as many were, by the good "lucky' away wins we were getting. To me it clearly wasn't sustainable that Hamer was going to continue to bail us out with amazing saves, or that every shot we had was going to continually go in. But during that time I was constantly shouted down with things like Hamer is there to stop shots etc. Some people just look at results, but I look at form and trends, and I tend to get a lot more right than wrong. I know many begrudge this, and I take no pleasure from saying we're crap......but I will never hold back on giving an honest opinion, even if it's unpopular. People hate unpopular opinions from being right, especially when it's pretty much a loan voice saying it. But as the weeks roll on I suspect many more will claim they thought this all along, as was the case earlier in the season when we started off very poorly.
I'm right though. I admire the fact you stick to your guns but the look at me I was right stature of your posts is a little bit juvenile. God help us if we do finish below 16th as you'll be unbearable
I think it's more the point that we've reduced our outgoings quite significantly hence it's unlikely to be £500k a week. I'm sure we will still make weekly losses as pretty much all clubs do but it's probably more manageable now
Outgoings reduced, but income will have reduced this season and parachute payments will be £0 next season, we also won’t be selling nearly £60m of players this season, even with our last year of parachute payments, so it’s all relative, outgoings down, income significantly down.
That's the problem. You, and many others just want to be right and can't stand it when you're not. You will attack the person who you perceive to have the opposite view to yourself. I'm not the enemy, I'm a Watford fan like you, but I can see things logically and clearly. Many others believe you have to be supportive, no matter what, and you will do whatever it takes to maintain that view. That colours your judgement. Too many on here just want to score points, which I consider juvenile. If I'm right about us, then I think my postings are validated. If I'm wrong, then I will hold my hands up. What I do know though, is when we are on a bad run the attacks against me are greatly reduced.
It’s funny having someone blocked, you just see someone debating with themselves. You okay @Knight GT ?
Wasn't actually sure of the answer of this so looked it up. There's been 56 wingers in the league that have played at least 900 mins. Below is the top 10 (with some very small sample sizes there). 28th in the league (so technically the 50th percentile) was a 26% success rate. But again there's gonna be some small sample sizes and also overhit crosses that get picked up by a team-mate that throws that off (Martins is down as 29% success rate). Also interestingly Sema ranks 42nd out the 56 for crossing accuracy, so it seems as if his accuracy isn't as good as I thought, it's just the sheer volume of crosses (ranks 12/56 for total number of successful crosses) he puts in inevitably leads to goals/chances that makes it seem like he's a good crosser. That being said, I'd still prefer that crossing volume!
Just seen the highlights and the goals we conceded were comical. The penalty looked a bit soft and I thought it was a foul leading up the their fourth goal. As usual our favourite referee did us no favours.
Well.....it was Atwell after all, so I'm surprised he awarded it. He could have righted a lot of wrongs last night. But yes, it was clearly over the line, so fair enough.
Everybody likes to be right but it's the I said it would happen part that is irritating. I said at the start of the season we would be mid table, I then changed that a few weeks ago that I felt we could do better but the current run suggests that was wrong. I don't constantly remind everybody of my predictions. You said we would be in a relegation fight which we are not. It would take a monumental **** up for that to change. Just admit that you got that wrong and move on. It's not about scoring points but apparently it is for you as you are so desperate to be right. I know you will deny it but I suspect part of you hopes that we end up 17th or worse as that's part of what you predicted in the summer. I don't class you or anybody else on here as the enemy, we are all Watford fans who apparently want our team to do well.
The same way Cathcart did for Sarr's goal at WBA last year. Cathcart headed the ball clear, Sarr controlled it, took it 5 yards and shot Clearly set up by Whiley old Cathcart. Chak made a cross field pass that Asprilla took in his stride and tapped in from 30yards
No, indeed, the 'confidence destroying' part is nowhere to be seen this time round. I do think the general downward trend and 'we've only won 3 of the last 13 games...' is pretty reminiscent of what we're seeing now, as is the extreme stubbornness in terms of the same playstyle (whatever we think that actually is with us...) and substitutions, etc. I'd also contend, to be honest, that our press was properly active and 'good' or at least coordinated/cohesive for the first couple of months at most, and after that has itself been largely fizzling out and being executed at best half-heartedly, and as often as not, barely at all/only by certain players, rendering it fairly pointless. We certainly have not exactly been swarming all over opposition defences when they're in possession - if anything, we've seen more instances of them doing that to us, whether they're actually known as a pressing team or not. The Besiktas fan talking about his plan becoming obvious and known to opponents holds some water for me, too - the TDB debacle being a good example of that. As my brother messaged me during the game last night, they all know when they see TDB lining up at right back again to just target him relentlessly, and so it plays out.
This is hard work! And this is supposed to be the match day thread , but anyway . When you talk about someone with half a brain . I would expect someone with half a brain to be able to follow a logical argument, but not sure if you can ? I realise it may not be your fault as you might just be financially illiterate . According this site , Watfords current wage bill is around £15m ,https://www.planetfootball.com/quic...age-bills-2023-24-leeds-leicester-southampton This may not be entirely accurate but using it as a ballpark figure that is a saving of around £30m That is vs the figure in the accounts, which includes premier league wages from April to June ,but as a comparison it is probably ok. The parachute payments have gone from c 42m to £34m . So all else being equal( which it won’t be , that’s a saving of £24m. So anyone with ‘half a brain ‘ could work out that (all other things being equal ) the £26m loss you quote doesn’t apply at this point in time, unless the clubs overheads have tripled during this period ( seems unlikely). The loss is likely to be much less than that . There will be other ins and outs of course . Eg it’s likely agents fees have reduced and gate receipts/other income will have reduced . So for the benefit of those that can follow a logical argument I have provided my logic .
You can waffle and be as insulting as you like. The facts remain, we were making a £500k per week operational loss last year, which is £26m per year. No matter how much you protest, that is what happened. People can make their own mind up as to where that is likely to lead us next season.
Excellent so I think we’re finally agreed then . The 26m loss last year did happen ( I didn’t ever ‘protest’ over this). And the 26m loss which you claimed still relates to this season is nonsense .
It was a good take. But in all reality I dont actually think we’d go into administration. Gino just would not allow his ownership loan to be put at risk like that. I believe we can service the Macquarie loans with further player sales this summer. What I see as the greater risk is the operational costs being significantly higher than revenue. We’re only keeping our heads above water by selling players. We have very few saleable assets now, but we have enough to cover the external debt I would imagine, and in the summer that will happen I’m sure. Once that is done, loans all but paid off with no players of value left, the season will be bleak. A further watered down skeleton squad, and only incoming players will be free transfers on low salaries. This will be our future if Gino stays and doesn’t get any outside investment.
You’re a little strange. Continually trying to goad a t1t for tat reaction. How do you know we’re not making a £26m loss this season? Have current accounts been published? You don’t know but are happy to dismiss as “nonsense”. I’ve already said I believe it’s likely the gap between operational costs and revenue would have been reduced but no one knows for sure until this year’s accounts are publish next year. You cannot dismiss it out of hand as nonsense. I think that says a lot about you really. Anyway, to try and get this back on track to a match thread, and seeing how numerically literate you are, how many points do you get if you score 2 but concede 4? Spoiler: Clue the same number of valid points you’re making
