Covid-19 Virus

Which 2 issues ? There's one issue. Yes I'm talking about what does the Govt do this summer when numbers increase due to the Indian variant and all the at risk groups have been offered a jab ? We are now in mid May - we will find out in the next 8/12 weeks or so. I think we are saying the same thing.

 

The particular concern about the Indian Variant, and the broader issue of completing the mass vacination programme nationwide.

It is highly plausible that the government will temporarily allow the minority to "trump" the majority while the Variant is abroad and the programme is ongoing - and we are talking much less than 8-12 weeks away if that happens - but it is very unlikely to do so once the programme is complete.

Or to put it differently, what they do in the short-term will not necessarily be what they do in the longer term.

Not sure why this is so difficult to understand...

 

Not sure why it is so difficult to understand either. Maybe my "next few weeks" would have been clearer if I had said "next 8-12 weeks" as you seem to have taken this to be the next fortnight and before vaccinations are complete. 8-12 weeks from now the "at risk" will have been offered jabs, cases will be rising (due to the Indian variant), but hospitalisations won't. We will see what the govt does. That is what my post #7447 said but you seemed to think it was off-topic ? I think you just like a good argument .

 

Yes, I took "the next few weeks" to be much more imminent than that. And my point was that what happens in the very short-term will not necessarily be a pointer as to what happens in the long term.

I think the difficulty I had in understanding your point is because I think it is very unlikely indeed that the government will continue with formal mandatory restrictions once the programme is complete, irrespective of the case numbers, unless hospitalisations increase (which might happen in the winter). The most they are likely to do are the sorts of things that Sydney said above, ie to encourage people to continue to wear masks in crowds etc.

 

A little bit bizarre. It was suggested that India wasn't added to the red list because we were trying to negotiate a trade deal, plus Boris was due to go out there in late April. However the other graph that listed all countries was strange as Mali had the worst rate but was amber, it's quite possible that hardly anyone was coming here from Mali but also UK troops are assisting French troops on peacekeeping duties and that could be a possibility as to why it wasn't a red country. At first glance they doesn't seem to be an obvious methodology but I suppose they have access to more data than the media do.

The last two graphs were the most interesting, showing positive cases in Bolton and Bedford with respect to those under 60 and those over 60. Clearly the vaccination programme is looking pretty effective.

 

Yes we agree.

My point was it will be interesting to see what they do actually do, but I agree this is, hopefully, the most likely outcome.

 

For at least another 12 months I guess:

• It will be mandatory to wear masks on public transport.
• Table service in pubs to continue.
• Hand sanitisers will be at the entrance to buildings/shops etc.
• Signage about keeping space, washing hands.
• Requirement to self-isolate if tested positive.
• Where applicable/possible one-way systems in public spaces.

If there are no further major spikes once the vaccination programme is complete plus the older/vulnerable get their booster jabs in the autumn, then we can be reasonably confident about returning to full normality soon enough. I suppose some people will continue to voluntarily wear masks in public for some time.

 

Not so sure about the self-isolation. That potentially has quite serious economic implications.

As for table service in pubs, wasn't that supposed no longer to be mandatory after 21 June? That one might depend on the progress of the variants.

 

I think governments have to be vague about exactly what data they have used, otherwise numbers would be cooked to achieve acceptable levels, in the same way as giving out the questions days before an exam, does not yield fair results.

The UK may have been slow, maybe not, but they were quicker than France, Germany, Italy and Spain, all of whom have a less than satisfactory vaccine roll-out, more cases, and more deaths at the moment.

 

If an individual tests positive it would be preferable they self-isolate rather than a repeat of the last year.

 

JOKE ALERT...JOKE ALERT...JOKE ALERT ​

I just thought I'd inject (pun intended) a bit of humour into this serious subject: -

A friend of mine had a vaccine against the Indian Variant the other day, it's called "The Punjab"

No disrespect meant to anyone I just thought it was a clever play on words.

 

"Preferable" is different from mandatory... We don't mandate self-isolation because of the 'flu, and vaccination rates for that are much lower.

It's not impossible but I think the government would think pretty carefully about this step.

 

Cr*p joke and a bit racist.

 

As a lot of people steer clear of the Politics section I thought this might be informative.

 

Yeh that, along with other data, came up in my posted video on post #7452

 

It just gives the absolute lie to Hancock's assertions.

 

You know those wonderful nurses who looked after Big Al?
https://www.theguardian.com/society...-resigns-over-lack-of-respect-for-nhs-workers

 

So the Daily Mail has been speaking to people arriving at Faro airport. Anyone think they embellish their quotes?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...g-Covid-crammed-Heathrow-UK-border-queue.html

And in case they edit it later…



Wonder if he was furloughed?

 

2nd OAZ this morning at 09h30 - I feel so heavy I'm going to have problems going up the stairs to bed.

 

What I'd like to know is when we are going to stop hearing about the R number and case numbers and having it used as potential reasoning for further/future restrictions or even a lack of reduction to current restrictions, considering the fact that those two things are surely beginning to become less and less relevant in isolation?

Hospitalisations and deaths must now be becoming the only two numbers that truly matter at this point when assessing the negative impact of Covid in this country? We have supposedly accepted that we are going to be with this thing circulating likely permanently in one form or another, so presuming that any spike in cases doesn't lead to a noticeable spike in hospitalisations and deaths (meaning the vaccines are doing their job), then what relevance does it hold going forward?

 

Woke at 03h30 feeling very grim, swallowed some 'profen and when the alarm went off at 06h00 I awoke to find myself so wet with sweat I thought I had pissed myself (and that my kids had also joined in the 'water sorts'). Limbs still very heavy.

Interestingly my younger sister had the jab (very bad reaction - 24h 'flu) and she was enrolled in that IC study thingy. 'They've' informed her that she probably had corona very early on (Jan '20) - she's extremely sporty and has been suffering from a very painful back for 'a while' and recently diagnosed with Grover's.

 

Had first dose of Pfizer yesterday (under 40, just) at 10am and nothing but a sore arm so far.

 

Agreed. The thing is I’m not a worrier, I’m still just about in my 30s and am fit and healthy (touches wood) so I honestly wouldn’t be at all arsed about having the vaccine if it was just purely about myself in isolation, I honestly wouldn’t bother. But I see it as a civic duty, as soon as I got the invite I booked the earliest available slot. I can’t abide these crackpots who presumably want the freedoms that the rest of us getting vaccinated will afford them, without getting vaccinated themselves. If we all took their view we could be in a state of perpetual lockdown and as it is there is a chance they negatively affect the majority. They deserve everything they get as far catching it is concerned and any freedoms they are denied as a result.

 

Oh yes, that’s it, just assume the Daily Mail is lying on the scant basis that’s precisely what it usually does.

 

Nothing to do with her starting a new nursing contract in the Caribbean then.

...and what is so bad about Boris's team asking her to join him in the "Clapping for NHS" photo, politicians all over the country were clapping for the cameras as they were happy to be thanking the NHS, but she refused as she did not want to give him the photo opportunity - and furthermore, he was admitted at the end of March and I am not sure that she would have been able to come up with the sweeping statements she has now made, based on what she had seen by then. Non-elective admissions by the end of January, in London, was 84,000, by the end of March it was only 64,000, and then by the end of April, it was 77,000.

For her to say that "he was just another patient" and then come out with her accusations of "indecisiveness and mixed-messages" that had apparently already been concluded by her and her colleagues, by the first week of April, is beyond much credibility.

She is just jumping on the bandwagon before jumping on the aeroplane to the Caribbean.

 

I cannot see this happening. First, because the risks to those who have been vaccinated are clearly so much lower once two doses have been administered, and it seems that vaccination reduces transmission as well. Second, because the numbers vaccinated in this country will bring us close to, if not reaching, herd immunity. Third, because the trade off would be continued damage to the economy. -Tory MPs are already twitchy about this. Fourth, because there can be no political justification for penalising the vast majority for the inaction of a small minority. In fact, I would suggest it would be a clear violation of human rights, so not only politically unjustified but also illegal.

 

'The Daily Mail' ≠ 'The Mail Online'

 

Personally I think this is a media thing. They’ve become familiar with these figures and what they mean, so keep trotting them out. I don’t think the government is so driven by them (but sometimes difficult to tell with this government…).

 

I hope so, I have no issue with those who can't take the vaccine because they are pregnant or are using other medication where the effects of that and the covid vaccine are unknown. I'd hate it if herd immunity isn't quite reached because of the selfish and the crackpots.

On a side note, the wife of one of my old primary school friends has been banned from Facebook, she is an anti-vaxxer.

 

Out of interest, what reaction did you have to your first jab? I am having my second on Saturday and the first only gave me a slight 'hangover' type feeling for a day. I was wondering if I should expect anything different second time round.

 

The idea of herd immunity seems rather indefinite now. At one point I'm sure it was quoted that it should occur when about 70% of people had anti-bodies but I haven't heard that recently. If that's right then the infection hot-spots are likely to occur in communities where the vaccine take-up is lower so there are more virus hosts available.

 

https://qz.com/2004945/has-the-uk-reached-herd-immunity/

Some way off given the current parameters of the vaccination programme.