April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 4

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Diamond, Apr 6, 2020.

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Day 4: Who Gets Lynched?

Poll closed Apr 7, 2020.

  1. Nornironhorn

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  2. miked2006

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  3. GoingDown

    8 vote(s)
    88.9%

  4. Cassetti’s Beard

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  5. domthehornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  6. HappyHornet24

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%

  7. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  8. steve harrow

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%

  9. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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Page 3 of 6
  1. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    It is unlikely to happen but I'm not taking a chance and saying it.

    I don't completely object to the masons 'outing themselves' though.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #71
    Horace_goes_up_north likes this.
  2. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Why don’t we have a mini vote on the masons issue?
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #72
    nornironhorn likes this.
  3. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Like this comment if you think the Masons should out themselves
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #73
    HappyHornet24, Cassetti's Beard and Optimistichornet like this.
  4. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Like this comment if you think the Masons should not out themselves
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #74
    Horace_goes_up_north, steve harrow and domthehornet like this.
  5. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    I'm on the fence as well. I can see the benefit and the danger.

    We know one wolf already knows the other so we'll have one guaranteed good kill tonight (unless we lynch beta).

    I wonder if alpha has worked out beta yet. If not they're as much in the dark as we are about them.

    So the masons revealing themselves would give us reduced odds of an evil lynching. Still not great odds though. 2 in 7 chance.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 6, 2020
    #75
  6. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Democracy in all its glory! XD
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #76
    nornironhorn likes this.
  7. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    We also might get very lucky and the beta could end up killing the traitor.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #77
  8. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I'm just in it for the easy likes.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #78
    steve harrow and Horace_goes_up_north like this.
  9. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    You sly sly *******. That’s very wolflike behaviour!
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #79
    steve harrow and nornironhorn like this.
  10. Horace_goes_up_north

    Horace_goes_up_north Reservist

    Actually a 3 in 7 chance of getting an evil if you include the traitor. That would at least give us another night even if we only got the traitor.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north, Apr 6, 2020
    #80
  11. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    I'd say that the masons have to make that decision themselves.

    Until they're happy to reveal, we can be sure they are telling the truth (2 Masons and 2 wolves after all...) and it doesn't expose the masons to a certain kill then I'm a no.

    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
    steve harrow, Apr 6, 2020
    #81
  12. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    I just think if the masons don’t reveal themselves today then we are guaranteed to lose unless we get an evil during lynching tonight.

    It depends if you believe the message today is the wolf or seer?
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #82
  13. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I can't like it but I'll vote for them to out themselves.

    We need something to go on and if them outing themselves is what the seer is waiting on before sending a message then we may as well.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #83
  14. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #84
  15. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #85
  16. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I see where you’re coming from. How do you think Team Good should try to coordinate who to lynch, then? I need to step away from the computer for a bit but I would suggest we look back at previous day’s posts, now that we are armed with the following info:
    - on Day 1, the traitor would have known Nisman wasn’t evil so he would have thought that message was either from the wolf or that Nisman was the tinker. Either way, he would have wanted us to lynch Nisman
    - on Day 1 the Beta Wolf thought the Alpha was a good player, which is why he tried to kill him. So the Alpha must have appeared to be a useful player on day 1
    - when Cassetti’s Beard was named evil, all 3 evil players knew this wasn’t true but it was in their interest for us to lynch him. The traitor, especially, might have been more active in pushing this view.
    - I think at least one of the wolves this year (the Alpha I suspect) is doing enough to appear to be a reasonably active and useful player to Team Good
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 6, 2020
    #86
  17. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    HappyHornet24, Apr 6, 2020
    #87
  18. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Why would the seer wait for this?
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 6, 2020
    #88
  19. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Well if two people come out and say they are masons, it reduces the 'pool' of players for the seer to view.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #89
  20. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I honestly don’t think we have a back up Seer, but OK.
     
    HappyHornet24, Apr 6, 2020
    #90
  21. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    odds go from 3 in 8 evil players to 3 in 6.
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #91
  22. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Why do you think that? Surely diamond would have built in that provision, otherwise team good was heavily disadvantaged from the start?
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #92
  23. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    From the rules:

    Apprentice Seer - In the event that The Seer dies, an apprentice seer is available. This player already knows they are the apprentice and needs to stay alive. If they are activated they will learn all of the Seers previous picks. As with the Wolf Cub, if the Seer dies near the end of the game this role may not be called upon.
     
    miked2006, Apr 6, 2020
    #93
  24. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    We definitely had one in the rules, but he did state it mightn't be used towards the end of the game.

    I'd imagine though, with us having two tinkers from the start and no guardian we will surely be granted a back-up seer.
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #94
  25. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    In the absence of a second message today - which could change everything - I'm still looking at who was named good by what most of us think was a wolf message.

    It is possible there is a back up seer who has messaged today already - which makes you evil of course - and the wolf is either sitting back to make us think that the first (only) message must be from him or to post only once they know who the masons are.

    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
    steve harrow, Apr 6, 2020
    #95
  26. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    So it all depends on whether the back up has died, been activated or not been chosen to be seer at this late stage?
     
    domthehornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #96
  27. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    There may be a back up seer but it's not impossible there will be a wolf cub yet. Masons and potentially back up seer if there is one being outed should remember that.

    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
    steve harrow, Apr 6, 2020
    #97
  28. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    @Diamond would an apprentice seer appear as very good in the write up if they were killed early?
     
    miked2006, Apr 6, 2020
    #98
  29. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    @Diamond if the back up seer had died already would they be called Good or Very Good?
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #99
  30. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    great minds think alike!
     
    Optimistichornet, Apr 6, 2020
    #100
    miked2006 likes this.
  31. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Once Diamond confirms, we can decide whether the masons should reveal themselves.

    Not having a backup seer would be pretty unprecedented but so is not having a guardian so we cannot discount it.
     
    miked2006, Apr 6, 2020
    #101
  32. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    It would be fairly obvious, it would not have been a straightforward good.
     
    Diamond, Apr 6, 2020
    #102
    miked2006 likes this.
  33. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I can't see any text suggesting the back up seer has been killed.

    Everyone has posted today so I don't think they've forgotten.

    Therefore I am inclined to believe that the first message is from the back up seer.

    HH24 for the gallows. Masons, do not reveal yourselves.
     
    miked2006, Apr 6, 2020
    #103
  34. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    At the minute, the obvious kill is HH24.

    If the first message was the seer, surely the wolf would put another name in the mix?
     
    nornironhorn, Apr 6, 2020
    #104
    Optimistichornet likes this.
  35. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Diamond has made it clear that if a backup seer was killed, it would be mentioned in the text. The write ups (and lack of message today) clearly describe a seer and a mason being killed and nothing else. Therefore, the backup seer should be alive.

    The wolf may refuse to post to make us suspect that there is no backup seer any more, but there is no reason for a backup seer not to post. Given everyone has spoken today, I don't think anyone has simply forgotten about the game. Posting early helps team good more than team evil.

    The wolf may indeed post if they haven't already, but given the lateness of the message this would now be suspect. If we have a seer that posts this late we're in trouble. If both our seers are dead, then we also have no chance. Happy, as I see it, is our last and only hope.
     
    miked2006, Apr 6, 2020
    #105
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