April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 4

Yea, they picked Nisman, Hornetgags and Moog.

 

It sums up Team Good's game so far that they seemed to pick the tinker on Day 1 and then the Joker on Day 2 (thankfully the Joker had been removed by this point)!

 

Yes. The lack of a Guardian means that any confirmed “good” players are easy pickings for the wolves overnight. Plus, we weren’t helped by the Seer viewing the tinker on day 1 - incredibly bad luck - and poor hornetgags having to withdraw from the game.

 

Am I right in thinking everyone has posted now?

So the back-up seer will know they are now the seer hopefully and we get a second message soon.

 

Not true. I didn’t throw random names out - I was quite clear about why certain players were on my radar. And, if you look back at my posts, I didn’t mention BRLR once, quite deliberately. I was going to post a message with a list of players who I was reasonably sure were good but didn’t because I didn’t want to draw the wolves’ attention to him in particular. My suspicions of you came about after I went over everyone’s posts from Day 1 and 2, once I became sure that the message naming moog as good was from the Seer.

 

We don't know for sure but once we get the second message today things should be a little clearer.

A few points that made me think the rhyming messages are the wolf:

They mentioned the seer in their message on day 1. Surely no seer would do that.
Their messages weren't clear in meaning, not explicitly naming players, etc. Again, no idea why a seer would be this unhelpful.
On Day 3, they said if we had listened to them the village would be wolf free... well that just isn't true as they had only named good players.
The Alpha killed moog over the weekend. That would suggest they knew he was good - ie the other messages were from the seer.

 

The bad luck that Team Evil had in the first game has well and truly passed to Team Good this time. The Seer viewing the tinker on day 1 set the tone - did half the Alpha wolf’s job for him as it meant an extra day of not knowing which messages to trust. The Beta Wolf learning the Alpha’s identity on the first night also played right into their hands.

 

Surely we should have this discussion after we get a second message?

I have no idea why there is a delay in us getting a second message.

 

OK I’m going to set out all the different permutations, to see if the Masons need to reveal themselves or not:
Currently 9 players left. Evil = 3; Good = 6
If we lynch a good player: 8 Players left. Evil = 3; Good = 5. Two good players likely killed overnight so evil wins
If we lynch an evil player who is the traitor: 8 Players left. Evil = 2; Good = 6. Two players likely killed overnight so left with 2 evil players and 4 good
If we lynch an evil player who is a wolf: 8 Players left. Evil = 2; Good = 6. Only one player killed overnight so left with 2 evil players and 5 good.

Is that correct?!

 

Probably because we have no Seer?!

 

From the game rules:

I know it says they may not be called upon but surely with the game so stacked in evil's favour they would have to be called upon. As we don't have a single confirmed good player we may as well give up if we aren't getting any seer messages.

 

I agree that if we have no back-up Seer, Team Good are basically stuffed.

 

Although it seems very likely, we cannot be 100% sure.

There is still a slim chance Messenger A was the seer.

 

Unfortunately, the wolves can’t kill one another in this game. If they could, the Beta would have helped us out by killing the Alpha on the first night. Unfortunately, by going for a fellow wolf, he actually helped Team Evil because he simply learnt the identity of the Alpha.

 

Update:

I think it is fair to assume miked is not a Mason.

 

Messenger A: 1. BRLR (Good - ?), 2. Horace (Good - ?), 3. CB (Evil - ?)
Day 1: The seer could have named themselves as good.
Day 2: They could have been correct about Horace.
Day 3: They could have been correct about CB.

We can't say that any of Messenger A's messages were wrong.

Messenger B 1. Nisman (Evil - confirmed Good) (copied style), 2. Gags (Good - confirmed Good) (changed style) 3. Moog (Good - confirmed Mason). BRLR killed.

Day 1: A wolf could have named Nisman without knowing his status.
Day 2: Gags could have been named good by a wolf.
Day 3: Moog could have been named good by the Alpha.

We can't say any of Messenger B's messages couldn't have come from the Alpha.

To clarify, I still think Messenger A was the seer, but we cannot be 100% sure.

 

Yup, which is why I said two good players “likely” killed. I think it’s likely at this stage that the wolves will have guessed who might be the traitor - or at least make a good guess at who isn’t.

 

There is something that could happen when the masons announce themselves that would make it even more difficult for team good. It is potentially unlikely to happen, but could happen.

In saying that, as HH24 says, the odds are stacked in evil's favour tonight to get 'good' kills anyway. The Beta won't go for the Alpha and surely has an inkling as to who the traitor is. The Alpha might go for the Beta but that'll only make things easier for them tomorrow.

 

I'm not going in to details, but this isn't quite the full truth as to what could happen.

For the record, despite my ambiguous messages, I am not a mason.