April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 3

If message 1 is from the seer, it makes little sense for the wolf to come afterwards and name me as good. Better for them to name someone else as evil to confuse the voting. They wouldn't want one of their colleagues to be lynched and naming me as good does nothing to deflect from CB.

I'm convinced that message 1 today was from the wolf and that declaring CB as evil can be utterly disregarded.

 

Yesterday you thought the poet was the Seer.

How come you've swapped around?

 

I've been caught out before by presuming wolves don't name themselves as good. That can't be discounted.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

 

Also, if he's certain the second message is from the seer, it absolutely makes no sense to take the wolf's bait, just to eliminate suspects.

At this stage in the game we need an evil kill tonight.

 

Quite.

Optimistichornet is my number 1 suspect for either Alpha Wolf or Traitor.

Miked has given some reasons already on the previous page which I agree with, but I'll elaborate in my next post.

 

That's what I just said!

Jinx

 

Both hornetgags and SLB were good and thought yesterday that the poet was the wolf and the cryptic was the Seer.

Hornetgags thought this because the cryptic named them as 'good' (in hindsight correctly, though it could have been a guess). However, he subsequently found himself on the way to a lynching before he had to quit.

SLB also independently thought the poet was the wolf, and ended up getting killed by the Alpha Wolf last night.

By contrast, optimistichornet was yesterday one of the ringleaders for the view of the poet being the Seer. They also voted for Squibba yesterday instead of hornetgags - perhaps they were worried that once we'd lynched hornetgags and found out that he was good, we would conclude that the cryptic messager was the Seer because they had indeed previously named hornetgags as correctly being good (though it could also have been a lucky guess).

 

If you think I'm good, don't take that as any indication as to Opti's status.

I'm certainly watching him very closely myself, chief or no chief.

 

Agree with this about CB. If we assuming the Alpha has a level of analysis that brings his picks a better probability than just random luck, ceteris paribus, it would make sense to veer away from CB.

However in the interests of facts, even if it was proven that Wolf named CB , CB may still be Evil and the wolf guessed wrong, but in summary I would say CB has slightly less chance of being Evil than the rest of us.

 

At the beginning of the game I decided that there will be obvious hints when a Mason dies. That hasn't changed.

 

hold on what do you mean I voted for a good player early? When I voted for squibba, hornetgags already had 11 votes!

I voted squibba as a placeholder for the seer if he survived until today, I even posted to say that.

why are you creating a false narrative? Are you the traitor?

 

that’s a fair point, looking at yesterday’s play moog was the only one really mooting other ideas.

 

I must be going slightly mad here. Is no one reading the narrative.

We have no idea whether or not whether CB is good or evil. If we believe that the second message is the seer, and the first is the wolf, then the wolf has no idea if CB is good or evil. CB can be any role in the game other than the alpha wolf. The alpha doesn’t know the beta or the traitor so it would be easy to accidentally implicate them in a message.

Simply put if we don’t get rid of CB tomorrow, he is still suspicious going forwards.

As to why I believe the second message is now the seer. Up until today it has been difficult to identify the messages, both had a style but we had very little else to go on.

 

You're right, you did say that, my mistake.

I was flicking back and forth yesterday afternoon and missed your message. I just looked at the voting and given everyone decided to vote for Gags assumed you had voted early.

 

One thing this particular game is telling me is that messages sticking to a formula means nothing at all as one of the messages is changing every time and people are still none the wiser.

One thing I will say is that anyone believing message 2 today as the Seer also believes the Seer also picked a 1 in 16 tinker on day one. Quite outstanding odds and some people in this game who would usually air on the side of the odds aren't so much here.

 

Happy surely you can see that CB could still be evil? Just because he was named in a wolfs message does not mean that he is not evil. The wolf doesn’t know the identity of the other evil players. If CB does not get lynched today and is good, then a smart wolf doesn’t kill him at night. He leaves him around as a potential cause of confusion.

why are you so against voting for CB? Do you know better?

 

You have seemed quite keen all along to discredit the Nisman Tinker theory.

 

It was a 1 in 16 chance! Keen because the odds are so massively in that favour!

 

There were essentially 2 tinkers on day 1, so around half the odds you suggest.

 

If you're good, saying something like that without naming names will put you in the clear firing line for a kill tonight.

 

But we now know one was gags so they are out. So ok, 1 in 15.

 

Yes, also there were 5 players on day 1 who would have been seen to be Evil, so roughly 1 in 3.

The retrospective odds of any player being picked was 1/16.

 

Gags was in the game and still live as fool at the point Nisman was identified.

It wasn't odds on, but based on what I've learned since, I'm inclined to believe it happened.

 

Mentioned in the messages (probably on balance slightly less likely to be evil, if we are dealing with a smart wolf)
Moog
BRLR
Horace
CB

Not mentioned thus far
Nornironhorn
miked2006
Lowerrous
GoingDown
domthehornet
HappyHornet24
steve harrow
Optimistichornet

If we think that message 2 is from the seer, @domthehornet stands out from that list as fairly suspicious.

Hasn't posted all day except for about half an hour after the first message, where gave a classic nothing post:

 

I don't buy it. There were only 2 players who would be viewed evil and end up being good. One was gags.

So the retrospective odds was therefore a 1 in 15 chance that nisman was named evil and was the main tinker.

Quite substantial and if true then very unlucky for team good.

Or the first message was a wolf. More likely I'd suggest.

 

Horace is digging his heels in over something wrong headed.

 

I'm gonna put myself in the firing line again and list my current suspects in order of suspicion.

1. Dom
2. Horace
3. Opt
4. Norn

Open to opinions.

 

I agree with you on nornironhorn.

My number 1 suspect is still optimistichornet.

Though from the way they've posted, I wouldn't be surprised if nornironhorn and optimistichornet were both working together somehow.

moog is also very suspicious, though in part because he seems to have been at such cross purposes with some on here at times, including optimistichornet - if optimistichornet isn't evil, then moog would come under strong suspicion instead.

 

You're mistaken on that I think - although dom has been quiet, he thought that the poet was the wolf yesterday.

Out of that list, the other one that has been the most quiet and least nailed their colours to the mast is steve harrow