Ignoring form which is obviously not great, we at least know that most of our recent losses have come against the better clubs so it strikes me that 22/1 for a top half finish is more than just excellent value as judging everyone else's fixtures 48 points may well be enough to sneak in at #10. We still have to play three of the bottom four having beaten all of them once already, infact we will have already beaten all the teams in our remaining fixtures once Saturday's guaranteed boredraw is finished. The Everton performance tells me we are not a million miles from where we were and that 49 points is still very doable. tbh we'd be good value at half the price.
Cause they're fighting to stay up? So what? They've shown already that they're **** anyway even if they're desperate. It just means they'll be more open at the back, making it easier for us.
Yep, should suit our fast, incisive and dangerous front 1 with 6 defensive midfielders guarding our goaline (just to be safe)
Sure it is but they're there for a reason and none are in particularly decent form. Villa are gone and by the time we play both Naarch and Sundlund it could well be academic anyway.
Maybe, but we were down to 5s at one point. I always have a sneaky bet before the season started. Had us to win the championship last hear and was due £200 till the last day.:rant: Luckilly I backed it each way.
Godfather forgets that we have been statistically worse than at least 3 of the bottom 4 since Christmas, so more likely they cant wait to face us for an easy three points
I don't forget at all, it's why we are at such a long price ...but statistics take no account of the opposition and that's where the value is. (and anyway, add 4 cup victories in there and the picture changes completely)
I thought it was a pretty average performance for the season as a whole, showcasing both the strengths and weaknesses of our team in equal measure. Despite Ighalo not finding his shooting boots again, I think even if we'd played like that during the first half of the season most would be reasonably contented (and don't forget that Everton have only lost two away).
What an idiot! I really couldn't see our win at WBA and thought I'd wait for the other mid table results expecting us to still firmly be 15th before making this bet. Now the odds are halved.
I think the most we can hope for is another 3 wins and 50pts. In which case the question really becomes 'can Chelsea win 2 from 5 and Stoke 1 from 5?' If the answer is yes (and I think it is) the bet is a dud.
Who said we could come ninth? Chelsea Bournemouth away Spurs home Sunderland away Liverpool away Leicester home Everton Liverpool away Bournemouth home Leicester away Sunderland away Norwich home but if you insist: Stoke Spurs home Man City away Sunderland home Palace away West Ham home (we have the better GD = 1/2 a point)
Chelsea are 10th. I don't really understand where Everton come into the equation. You're right about Stoke's GD though.
If we win 3 then Everton must also, Chelsea must win 2 and Stoke must collect 4 points if they want to stay above us. Given their fixtures I don't really expect more than one of them to succeed. Points Gained in the Games Corresponding to Remaining Fixtures Stoke 4 Chelsea 4 Everton 6 And of course Watford 15 On that score I'd say it's close to a 50/50 if we do beat the dross D) at the bottom. I also don't think a point against L'pool or W Ham is such a tall order either, they struggled with our tactics and we won both return games fairly convincingly. Note that if we send Naarch down the Sundlund game would likely be a dead rubber (for them). At the end of the day this thread's about getting a good run for your money and IMO there's still value even at 12's
I still don't understand where Everton come into it though. They're 11th. They're top of the bottom half and unless I've totally misunderstood the bet overtaking them alone won't make it a winner. Chelsea and Stoke are all that matter.
By that token Stoke don't matter either as they are 9th. The fact is that we must finish above two of the three for the bet to come in ... A tall order but for the odds on offer I'd say it's worth it.
I'm not going to labour the point but basically if you think Chelsea will win 2 out of 5 as I do then Stoke replace them in 10th and become the target. Hence their relevance. Everton aren't in the picture yet. In reality although 10th is an outside possibility I think we'll end up where we are now in 12th. 6pts should be enough to seal that particular deal.
Chelsea have won one of the last seven games they've played, that was against Villa. Stoke one in five (when they beat us). Everton who you strangely ignore haven't won in their last six league games either (Villa their last victims).
It's going to be a volatile market, I had a couple of quid on thanks to this thread, my 22/1 is now a 5/1.
I'm actually amazed that we still have a chance to finish above Chelsea, I'd have expected after our bad run for them to be miles ahead of us by now. Hiddink clearly isn't the long term solution (and he'll be 70 this year) - even with such a poor start, it was surely possible with that team to have made a proper push for a European spot, and have got further in the cup competitions than they did.
Well Spurs have certainly boosted our chances tonight - and with that goal difference it means we could be effectively at least 4 points behind them if we can somehow get something on Wednesday night. And Stoke's run-in is pretty tricky, with only Palace away I'd be confident of them winning. Mind you, with Leicester dropping points this result is hardly surprising, and it makes me still annoyed that this lot beat us so easily (1-2 flattered us) - they do well enough it seems against most of the dross and any team that isn't up for the battle, but when they play anyone decent and on their game, they get battered. Makes me laugh at that group of Stoke fans on the train back from Watford High Street who were confident they could do a Leicester next season...
Even though they lost 2-1 to them at home and 1-0 in the cup? (and they lost 2-0 at Sunderland) Still Stoke beat City at the Britannia so all is not lost.
Sorry to anyone who took my advice and bet on this, I obviously didn't figure our crappiness into the equation.
