Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Davidmsawyer, Aug 21, 2018.
By the time we play Liverpool at Anfield on 27th Feb, we'd have played 9 of the last 11 games away from home.....wow!!
Well that is a comprehensive guide to the tactics we should employ.
Someone score a hat-trick early doors and the chance of us winning the game is near 100%.
Cant believe the coaches/strikers have missed how easy it is to win if we just do this.
Prediction for Saturday. 3-3 with Deeney and Murray hat-tricks.
Or 0-0 in the cold and wet.
Bit of stressful game but great result. Sorry for the delay of a couple of the games, here is the update:
The current position is:
7 points better than this time last year (37 vs 30). This is the same as after the last game.
10 points better than the comparable fixtures last year (37 vs 27). This is the same as after the last game
10 points better than the '40 point' line (37 vs 27). This is 2 points better than after the last game.
That was a good win. I would bet that we will find by the end of the season we already have the points to stay up now - not bad with 12 games to go
I'd be surprised if we went down even if lost every game left.
Of course we have.
Southampton need four more wins than us, plus a draw, in their remaining games just to get level with our current total. They’ve only won five games all season.
According to the BBC it's the first first time we've beaten someone 3 times in a row in the Premier league .
Isn't that stat wrong? They equalised earlier in the season...
At home - sorry .
How is the prestigious Best of the Rest table looking?
Apologies if this isn’t the right thread.
Currently we are on target for mid 50's points wise. Is that good enough for 7th?
We can finish anywhere between 7th and 12th still but starting to look likely to be a top 10 finish.
3 times in a row at home.
Now we're over 2/3's of the season I think it's a good time to reflect on the season as a whole.
So far Javi has done a fantastic job. Many thought he was not the right choice, however I had faith in him basically because I knew of his achievements in Spain previously, plus how he transformed us at home. The improvement was dramatic from day one, wiping clean the dross we had to endure under Silva.
Where he lacked, and why quite a few thought he was not up to it, was the away form. It was worrying, but I was convinced it was an anomaly to not have scored a single goal. Football goes in crazy runs like that at times and I'm really pleased that it's turned out to be exactly that. Just some unfortunately sequence.
When you consider we lost Richarlison and did not really invest at all this season, it's been a remarkable testament to getting the most out of your squad. We've been well drilled, united and committed. It's those ingredients that sees you pick up a decent quota of points.
Without huge investment and quality players, it's impossible to break into the top 6. Ok, Leicester did it, so it's not really impossible, but I feel the top 6 have advanced way beyond their level of 2016 in just 2 short seasons.
So we're looking at a ceiling of 7th as winning our attainable league. That's still a huge achievement when you consider we're above West Ham, Everton, Leicester, Crystal Palace & Bournemouth, who have all spent vast amounts of cash, way beyond Watford, yet still sit comfortably below us.
We are 4 points clear of 9th place, so have the luxury of being able to lose the next game and still remain where we are.
It's been a little strange though. Are we playing as well as we were at the beginning of the season? I'd say no, not really. I think our performance levels are not quite as good, certainly in going forward. We are not creating anywhere near as many good goal scoring chances as before. But what we are is very consistent and reliable defensively, and even more so recently. This has allowed us to pick up vital points from games where we've maybe not deserved too much. Only Bournemouth have really opened us up consistently this season.
Looking ahead, with 12 games to go, I think it's fair to expect we will beat our previous points record (in the EPL) which is 45 points, set in our first season under QSF. 3 more wins will achieve that, but I think we'll go far beyond. I'm not expecting too much from those tough away games at United, City and Liverpool. Chelsea will almost certainly be a defeat also, unless they really capitulate under Sarri. But of the remaining 8, I see no reason why we cannot pick up another 15 points. 4 wins, 3 draws or something similar. That would give us 52 points, and an outside chance of 7th place.
In the summer, the same targets remain as was the case last summer. A quality striker and central defender. If we add that to what we have without losing any key players, then we could really go places. Having said that, it will be a major task keeping Dououre, Pererya and Deulofeu in the summer. At least one of those players are bound to be sold, so we'd need quality to replace any outgoing player also.
All in all, this looks like being a very good season. It could rival or surpass that QFS season. 45 points and an FA Cup semi final. A tall order, but is still a strong possibility.
I believe that at the end of this season we will see yesterday's win as determining "Safety Day". i.e., the team 3rd from bottom will end somewhere between 34 and 36 points and thus yesterday's win provided safety on 37 points. The trend is encouraging:
Season 2015/2016. 3rd from bottom club Newcastle relegated on 37 points. Safety Day April 8th, match day 31, when a draw against Everton saw us move up from 37 points to 38.
Season 2016/2017. 3rd from bottom club Hull City relegated on 34 points. Safety Day April 4th, match day 30, when a win against West Brom saw us move up from 34 points to 37.
Season 2017/2018. 3rd from bottom club Swansea City relegated on 33 points. Safety Day March 3rd, match day 29, when another win against West Brom saw us move up from 33 points to 36.
Season 2018/2019. Predict 3rd bottom club relegated on btw 34-36 points. Safety Day February 9th, match day 26, winning against Everton yesterday to go to 37 points.
Assuming I've got my facts right we need to play both Everton and West Brom, should they be promoted, earlier in the season next year please Mr. Fixture Computer.
I will of course start a second tracker for "Qualify for Europe Day" this season and in subsequent years
7th or FA cup final, come on you golden boys!!
I think you seem to have forgot one quality player we did sign, and one who has made a BIG difference to our team IMO.......
BIG BEN FOSTER!!!
The home game v Wolves in April could be like a cup final for 7th place and you never know it may also be a rehersal for a wembley match against them!
90:00 and Benitez decides to delay things by putting a sub on. The referee, correctly, adds on 45 seconds to account for the time lost. Wolves score during those 45 seconds......
Still not a bad result for us. If we can match Wolves over the coming weeks, the run in could be very interesting. The only thing is, I seem to remember that 7th place is reserved for Wolves! (I guess that was the bad 7th place, not the good 7th place)
Wolves have 5 home , 7 away we have 6 each. If you split the league into 3 compartments then
they have. H 2,0,3. A 2,2,3 so 6 against the bottom group and 4 against the top 6
We have H 1,3,2 A. 4,0,2 so we have a slightly harder run in but more at home. Need to win
the home games . 7th place use to be reserved for Wolves because it meant they just missed out
on the play offs.
Especially the one against Wolves as it would (obviously) prevent them getting points that week too.
I used to laugh at wolves for coming 7th and missing out on the top 6 in the championship. Hope they Huddersfield it and goof up the 2nd season.
Chelsea's form is so poor it's not beyond the realms of possibility both us and Wolves catch them.
We are away to Chelsea 2nd to last game of the season (I believe) would certainly help if we won that game if we seriously hope to overtake them!
This is starting to look rather tasty...
The current position is:
10 points better than this time last year (40 vs 30). This is 3 points better than after the last game.
12 points better than the comparable fixtures last year (40 vs 28). This is 2 points better than after the last game.
12 points better than the '40 point' line (40 vs 28). This is 2 points better than after the last game.
One more win and surely the 45 point graph glass ceiling has to be lifted?
I'm not tempting fate until we make it!
Great graphs again David - and showing great results
Our post-Christmas slump taking its toll as per usual
I think you are right UEA, in fact I believe a 50 point ceiling could well be shattered too
Thanks David, have you got that points in top flight comparison bar chart you also do please. I guess this is our 2nd best season currently?
He's put it on the match thread...